Central New Mexico Weather: 9/20/22

Yesterday was warm and sunny all day in Socorro and Magdalena.

My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 56 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Flood Watches for the western third of the state. The Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows a blanket of light clouds over the western half of the state this morning.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows the moisture plume has shifted and the entire state has deep moisture available.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a warm, humid atmosphere. There was 1.05 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 158 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and -165 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 891 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.0 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 12 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 20 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, humid weather, with sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning, though there is slightly higher pressure and a weak gradient radiating from southern Colorado. The RAP shows the pressure will drop everywhere, weakening the gradient, due to diurnal heating in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, southwesterly flow over the state today ahead of the next trough.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a few scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. There may be a morning wave of precipitation through the Rio Grande River Valley, followed by afternoon development and a second wave of precipitation that will last into the early evening.

The simulated precipitation chart shows the heaviest rain will fall near Roswell and near rural areas of Sierra and Socorro counties.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 80s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows gusty winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few patches of clouds, but mostly sunny and clear skies, with a few areas of partly cloudy skies this afternoon and evening.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible today. Storms will be widespread over most of the state, as there is ample moisture throughout the column, statewide.

I will stay around campus today, mostly indoors. I may try to go for an evening walk.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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