Northern Neck, Virginia Weather: 7/25/21


Yesterday was hot, mostly sunny and still.

This morning, Jersey, VA, has been mild, mostly sunny and still.

From the NWS in Sterling, VA:  A few isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, with damaging winds, torrential rain and the possibility of flooding as the primary threats.

The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a mostly sunny, with a high temperature of 91 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 8-11 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 73 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 3-6 mph.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Warsaw, VA) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be calm from the southeast at 10-13 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 72 F. The wind will be from the south at 8 mph.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Kilmarnock, VA) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-14 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a low temperature of 73 F. The wind will be from the south at 10 mph.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for parts of Virginia today. The primary threats are damaging winds and torrential downpours.

The visible satellite imagery shows a cloud deck over most of Virginia this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling, VA, shows a nearly-saturated layer below 400 mb. There was 1.71 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 43 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -233 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 287 m. There was a small thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 18 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 37 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Observations Map shows mild temperatures and high relative humidity. The skies are a sunny, (according to the sensors) with light, southwesterly winds.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients are present. The RAP shows that this trend will continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northerly flow over the state, as air circulates around the upper-level high.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a line of storms passing through this afternoon.

The Nested NAM simulated precipitation chart, shows the line between precipitation and no precipitation is near King George county, so we may or may not see rain.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the Northern Neck will rise into the upper 80s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will rise into the 70s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely, except near the afternoon thunderstorms. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a thick band of convection later this afternoon.

Today will be mostly sunny, though a line of marginally-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.

I will be moving boxes from inside to outside, and will probably have to pause for the thunderstorms.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Satellite Image of the Week 2021 #29

I took this image earlier today over New Mexico.

I just really liked the very visible boundary running ahead of the cloud bank. Storms fired along this boundary later in the evening.

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:

College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Northern Neck, Virginia Weather: 7/24/21


Yesterday was hot, mostly sunny and still.

This morning, Jersey, VA, has been mild, mostly cloudy and still.

From the NWS in Sterling, VA:  A cold front will finish passing through the region this morning, and high pressure will build in the afternoon.

The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a mostly cloudy morning, becoming mostly sunny, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and a high temperature of 86 F. The wind will be calm, becoming southerly at 5-8 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and a low temperature of 69 F. The wind will be from the south at 6 mph.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Warsaw, VA) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and a high temperature of 84 F. The wind will be calm, becoming southerly at 5-7 mph. This evening will be becoming mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 69 F. The wind will be from the south at 8 mph.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Kilmarnock, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 83 F. The wind will be calm, becoming southeasterly at 5-7 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers, with a low temperature of 69 F. The wind will be from the south at 11 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds over the Northern Neck, embedded in a small stratus deck.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling, VA, shows a nearly-saturated layer below 600 mb. There was 1.28 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 539 m. There was a small thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.4 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 8 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 39 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Observations Map shows mild temperatures and high relative humidity. The skies are a sunny, (according to the sensors) with still winds.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we are under high pressure, but no strong pressure gradients are present. The RAP shows that this trend will continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northerly flow over the state, as air circulates around the upper-level high.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows isolated showers are possible this morning and this evening.

The Nested NAM simulated precipitation chart, shows light precipitation over the state in isolated areas.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the Northern Neck will rise into the mid 80s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible this morning as the front passes.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows thin bands of clouds off and on all day.

Today will be mostly sunny, though some showers are possible off and on. It rained briefly and heavily a few minutes ago, but has stopped again already.

I will remain inside for most of the day.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Hagerstown, MD, to Jersey, VA, Weather: 7/23/21

I got tired on my run across Maryland and ended up stopping in Hagerstown.

This morning, the weather has been partly sunny, with light, cirrus clouds.

The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Hagerstown, MD) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be calm, becoming northerly at 6 mph.

The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 86 F, with winds from the north at 6 mph. This evening will be from the east at 6 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

I’m not writing a full post today, as I have already driven most of the way to Jersey, and I have a lot going on.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Cleveland, OH, to Jersey, VA, Weather: 7/22/21

I completed my run to Michigan yesterday, under beautiful weather. I drove with the windows down for a good part of the day. I ended the night just west of Cleveland.

This morning, the weather has been partly sunny, with cumulus clouds, mild and still.

The NWS in Cleveland, OH, forecasts (for Cleveland, OH) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the north at 6-8 mph.

The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a partly cloudy evening, with a low temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be light and variable.

Current visible satellite imagery shows some light cumulus along the way.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild temperatures and high humidity, with mostly sunny skies (according to the sensors) and light, variable winds.

The SPC Pressure Map shows I am starting the day under high pressure, with no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows this trend will continue throughout my journey.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely along my route. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts temperatures will rise into the mid 70s F, and then decrease to the mid 60s F overnight.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong wind gusts are unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts a few light clouds this afternoon as I reach Virginia.

I will be traveling under mostly sunny skies and beautiful weather. I see more riding with my windows down in my future.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Vassar, MI, to Steubenville, OH, Weather: 7/21/21

I made a trip to Michigan, and will begin my trip down to Virginia today. I caught the edge of the storms yesterday, but was not on the severe warned cell. I did pass through some heavy rain in Flint, MI.

This morning, the weather in Vassar, MI, is hazy, mild and still.

The NWS in Detroit, MI, forecasts (for Vassar, MI) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the north at 6-11 mph, gusting to 18 mph.

The NWS in Pittsburgh, PA, forecasts (for Steubenville, OH) a mostly clear evening, with a low temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-8 mph, becoming calm after midnight.

Current visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds overhead, but some cloud streets coming off Lake Erie to the southeast.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild temperatures and high humidity, with mostly sunny skies (according to the sensors) and light, variable winds.

The SPC Pressure Map shows I am starting the day under high pressure, but will drive towards lower pressure through the afternoon and evening.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely along my route. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts temperatures will rise into the mid 70s F, and then decrease to the mid 50s F overnight.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop into the 50s F this afternoon. Dry air is seeping south through the region.

The Nested NAM shows strong wind gusts are unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the clouds will mix out, and I will travel under sunny skies. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

I will be traveling under sunny skies, and try to skirt past the edge of the showers this afternoon. I will be stopping in Lansing first, and then Grand Rapids for the night.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Newbury, OH, to Grand Rapids, MI, Weather: 7/20/21

I am making an excursion to visit a few friends in Michigan.

This morning, the weather in Newbury, OH, is sunny, mild and still.

The NWS in Cleveland, OH, forecasts (for Newbury, OH) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be calm, becoming westerly at 5-8 mph.

The NWS in Grand Rapids, MI, forecasts (for Grand Rapids, MI) a partly cloudy evening, with a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the north-northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming north-northeast after midnight, gusting to 20 mph.

Current visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds along my route. This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild temperatures and high humidity, with mostly sunny skies (according to the sensors) and light, variable winds.

The SPC Pressure Map shows no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning, and the RAP shows none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a small line of showers and thunderstorms that will move south through eastern Michigan later this afternoon.

The Nested NAM predicts temperatures will rise into the mid 80s F, and then decrease to the mid 50s F overnight.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will rise from the lower 60s F overnight.

The Nested NAM shows strong wind gusts are unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that there will be a few clouds associated with the showers, as well as a thin band of high clouds approaching from the west.

I will be traveling under sunny skies, and try to skirt past the edge of the showers this afternoon. I will be stopping in Lansing first, and then Grand Rapids for the night.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Weather Data: 7/12/21 – 7/18/21

Time for my 65th week of weather station data.

The high temperature of 93.2 F occurred on Saturday afternoon. We had a low temperature of 59.9 F on Thursday morning. The dewpoints ranged from 63.3 F to 32.2 F.

There was 0.30 in of precipitation on Thursday afternoon.

The strongest winds and the strongest gust (23.9 mph) occurred Saturday afternoon.

The high pressure was 30.17 in Hg (~1022 mb) on Saturday afternoon, then again on Sunday afternoon and the lowest pressure was on Friday morning, dropping down to 29.92 in Hg (~1013 mb).

There was more sunshine this week. There was two false peaks, one Thursday evening and one on Sunday evening.

Thank you for reading my post.

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Northeast Ohio Weather: 7/19/21

Yesterday was mild, sunny and still. It was a beautiful day for moving furniture, we could not have asked for better weather.

This morning has been mild, sunny and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Newbury, OH) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-8 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be light and from the west.

The NWS in Cleveland, OH, forecasts (for Cleveland, OH) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 68 F. The winds will be from the light and variable.

The NWS in Cleveland, OH, forecasts (for Ashtabula, OH) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 3-6 mph.

The NWS in Cleveland, OH, forecasts (for Warren, OH) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-8 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the region this morning This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The upper-level water vapor loop shows a pocket of dry air pushing into the region today.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Wilmington, OH, shows a humid boundary layer, but decreasing moisture aloft. There was 0.91 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 195 m. There was a large thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 19 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 13 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Observations Map shows mild temperatures and high humidity. The skies are a clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are calm.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we are under high pressure with no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows this trend will continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show a little thermal advection. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a small line of showers and thunderstorms moving across I-70 near the Pennsylvania border.

The HRRR shows precipitation is unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows a little light rain near I-70, but otherwise sunny skies.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures the lower 80s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 60s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a thin thread of clouds near I-70 in the eastern part of the state.

Today will be pleasant in the Cleveland area. I tend to believe the NAM in that there will be a small line of showers and thunderstorms near I-70. It shows up on the HRRR as a few pixels, not worth showing on this blog. The air is humid enough near the surface that even the tiniest boundary will kick up a shower or two, but the tiniest boundary is well south of Cleveland.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Northeast Ohio Weather: 7/18/21

Yesterday was mild, cloudy and rainy all day. The rain stopped yesterday evening.

This morning has been mild, foggy and still. The sun is just starting to mix out some of the fog.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Newbury, OH) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-9 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The NWS in Cleveland, OH, forecasts (for Cleveland, OH) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-11 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the west at 6 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The NWS in Cleveland, OH, forecasts (for Ashtabula, OH) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the west at 7-11 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the west at 3-6 mph.

The NWS in Cleveland, OH, forecasts (for Warren, OH) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few patches of light fog this morning.

The upper-level water vapor loop shows a pocket of dry air pushing into the region today.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Wilmington, OH, is unavailable at this time.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Observations Map shows mild temperatures and high humidity. The skies are a clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are calm.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we are under high pressure with no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows this trend will continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show a little overnight Cold Air Advection (CAA) drifted into the area. It is more visible on the 850 mb chart.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows precipitation is unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows precipitation is unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures the upper 70s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 60s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows sunny and clear skies today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

It looks like a good, clear, sunny day today. The overnight CAA has brought some morning fog, but it will quickly mix out, especially with the diurnal heating and drier air aloft.

I will spend a little time later today moving boxes and furniture and it looks like a really pleasant day to do so.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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