Central New Mexico Weather: 2/18/19

Yesterday was partly sunny, cool and still. We had some graupel in the afternoon, but no accumulation.

This morning has been partly sunny, cold and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of snow showers, and a high temperature of 46 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  Tonight will be cloudy, with a 70% chance of snow showers (1-2″) and a low temperature of 24 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly  sunny day, with a high temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of rain, then snow (<1″) and a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of snow showers and a high temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of snow showers (<1″) and a low temperature of 23 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a bunch of warnings concerning the approaching winter storm.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below.

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows the leading edge of the winter storm approaching from the west.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque a nearly-saturated layer around 650 mb.  There was 0.17 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 745 m.  There was no inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows the low-level shear is 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes), and the deep layer shear is 119 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and low humidity this morning.  The skies are mostly cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems though there is low pressure to our west, creating a strong pressure gradient across the state.  The RAP shows that the pressure gradient will weaken over the next six hours.

The critical thicknesses chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that most of the critical thickness contours are south of the Albuquerque Metro area.  Most of the precipitation in this region will be snow.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows a backdoor cold front sneaking into the eastern and northern parts of the state by this afternoon.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity forecasts snow, particularly north of the I-40 corridor.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak in upper 30s today.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 10-20 F range.  Outside of the Albuquerque Metro area, the dewpoints will drop into the single digits.  We still have that one small plume of moisture over the city and along US 550.

The HRRR shows gusty winds are possible this evening, particularly along the mountain ridges.

The HRRR shows that the skies are expected to remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout the day.

The winter storm hits today and will linger through at least tomorrow evening.  I’m not looking forward to it.  I have to drive a lot over the next two days.  Thankfully, I will remain mostly below the Albuquerque Metro area where the snow will not be as deep.  Stupid winter storm, go away, nobody likes you.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central New Mexico Weather: 2/17/19

Yesterday was partly sunny, cool and windy.

This morning has been partly sunny, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 25 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly  sunny day, with a high temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 24 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 20 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The visible satellite image shows cloud cover over the northwestern quarter of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque a nearly-saturated layer from 700 mb to 550 mb.  There was 0.18 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 989 m.  There was no inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows the low-level shear is 15 kts (due mostly to directional changes), and the deep layer shear is 137 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and low humidity this morning.  The skies are mostly sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong westerly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity forecasts a few scattered showers this afternoon.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak in mid 40s today.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 20s F for the Albuquerque Metro area, but will drop into the single digits everywhere else.  We are in a tiny plume of moisture here.

The HRRR shows gusty winds are possible in the southern third of the state this afternoon.

The HRRR shows that the skies are expected to remain partly cloudy throughout the day.

Today will be cool and partly cloudy all day.  I need to keep working on my garden, even though it will be a little chilly.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Satellite Image of the Week 2019 #7

This week’s Satellite Image of the Week shows open cell convection over the Pacific, just off the California coast.

I’m not exactly sure what causes the clouds to look this way.  There’s no strong evidence of land breezes or sea breezes.  I think the regular spacing is a function of frictional forces (shear) between layers, but that’s as far as I’ve thought about these clouds.  Anyway, enjoy!

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:  College of DuPage – Meteorology

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Central New Mexico Weather: 2/16/19

Yesterday was partly sunny, mild and still.

This morning has been partly sunny, cool and windy.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly day, with a high temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, increasing to 25-30 mph and gusting to 40 mph in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 25 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly  sunny day, with a high temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, increasing to 25-30 mph and gusting to 40 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the west at 20-25 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 47 F.  The winds will be from the west at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 22 F.  The winds will be from the west at 15-25 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Winter Storm Warning as well as several Wind Advisories and Red Flag Warnings.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather risk for the eastern third of the state today.  The strong winds are a major contributor to this threat.

The visible satellite image shows high clouds in the south and lower clouds approaching from the northwest.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows some extremely dry air aloft.  There was 0.19 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1003 m.  There was no inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.3 C/km.  The hodograph shows the low-level shear is 21 kts (due mostly to directional changes), and the deep layer shear is 127 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and moderate humidity this morning.  The skies are partly cloudy (according to the sensors) and there is a strong southwesterly wind.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under a lingering low pressure system has developed over northeastern New Mexico.  This places a slight pressure gradient across the northern part of the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the low will begin to move northeast and deepen.  The pressure gradient will become strong and the winds will increase.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong westerly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows some Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving in from the west by this afternoon.  Notice how the winds blow across the temperature gradient from cold to warm.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity forecasts a few scattered showers this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak in upper 40s today.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will drop from the upper 20s F into the teens.

The HRRR shows gusty winds are likely, statewide.

The HRRR shows that the skies are expected to clear up a bit in the afternoon.  Our visibility will be limited, however, by blowing dust.

Today will be a cooler, a lot windier and just generally unpleasant.  There’s the potential for snow later this week as well.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 2/15/19

Yesterday was cloudy, rainy and cool.

This morning has been mostly sunny, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers in the morning and a high temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 34 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers in the morning and a high temperature of 66 F.   The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming north in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 36 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers in the morning and a high temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 33 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Winter Storm Warning as well as several Wind Advisories.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather risk for the northeastern corner of the state today.  The strong winds are a major contributor to this threat.

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows thin clouds over most of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a saturated layer from 700 mb to 600 mb.  There was 0.45 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 342 m.  There was a tiny inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.3 C/km.  The hodograph shows the low-level shear is 47 kts (due mostly to directional changes), and the deep layer shear is 129 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and low humidity this morning.  The skies are partly cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are not under any strong pressure systems, but a low pressure system has developed over northeastern New Mexico.  This places a strong pressure gradient across the northern part of the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the diurnal heating will lower the pressure everywhere, weakening the gradient over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong westerly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity forecasts a few scattered showers this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak in low 60s today.

The HRRR shows that moisture will increase significantly, with dewpoints peaking in the mid 30s F.

The HRRR shows gusty winds are likely, particularly east of the central mountain range.

The HRRR shows that the skies are expected to become mostly cloudy by this afternoon.

Today will be a mild.  However, the snow is coming.  I’ll be watching this winter system as it develops.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 2/14/19

Yesterday was mostly cloudy, mild and still.

This morning has been mostly cloudy, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and a high temperature of 55 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and a low temperature of 40 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of scattered showers and a high temperature of 63 F.   The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of scattered showers and a low temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and a high temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of scattered showers, and a low temperature of 40 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has several High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories east of the central mountain chain.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows thick clouds over the entire state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows two saturated layers, one around 700 mb and another around 500 mb.  There was 0.36 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2377 m.  There was no inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.3 C/km.  The hodograph shows the low-level shear is 29 kts (due mostly to directional changes), and the deep layer shear is 78 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and low humidity this morning.  The skies are mostly cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are not under any strong pressure systems, but a low pressure system has developed to our east.  This places a strong pressure gradient across the northern part of the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the diurnal heating will lower the pressure everywhere, weakening the gradient over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong westerly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity forecasts rain by this afternoon.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak in mid 50s today.

The HRRR shows that moisture will increase significantly, with dewpoints peaking in the 40s F.

The HRRR shows gusty winds are possible this morning, particularly near the strong pressure gradient.

The HRRR shows that the skies are expected to remain cloudy all day.

Today will be a little mild, cloudy, rainy and damp.  I think the Rio Grande River Valley has escaped the strong winds for a day or so.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 2/13/19

Yesterday was mostly sunny, mild and still.

This morning has been mostly cloudy, cold and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 58 F.   The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a few Red Flag Warnings this morning.  With the extremely low humidity and potentially gusty winds, there is a risk of wildfires.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) also shows this fire risk.  They have issued a Critical Fire Risk for the northeastern corner of the state.  Their graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows thick clouds over the entire state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere, with no saturated layers.  There was 0.12 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2034 m.  There was a thick inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 1.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows the low-level shear is 20 kts (due mostly to directional changes), and the deep layer shear is 40 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and low humidity this morning.  The skies are mostly sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under high pressure with a slight pressure gradient this morning.  The RAP shows that this trend will continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity forecasts very little precipitation.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak in upper 50s today.

The HRRR shows that there will be very little moisture in New Mexico today.  Dewpoints will remain in the single digits all day.

The HRRR shows gusty winds are possible, particularly along the central mountain range.

The HRRR shows that the skies are expected to remain cloudy all day.

Today will be a little warmer and cloudier today.  Here in the Rio Grande River Valley, precipitation and wind are not expected to be a significant threat.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment