Yesterday was partly sunny, cool and still. We had some graupel in the afternoon, but no accumulation.
This morning has been partly sunny, cold and still.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of snow showers, and a high temperature of 46 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. Tonight will be cloudy, with a 70% chance of snow showers (1-2″) and a low temperature of 24 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 49 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of rain, then snow (<1″) and a low temperature of 29 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of snow showers and a high temperature of 41 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of snow showers (<1″) and a low temperature of 23 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a bunch of warnings concerning the approaching winter storm. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below.
The visible satellite image is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows the leading edge of the winter storm approaching from the west.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque a nearly-saturated layer around 650 mb. There was 0.17 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 745 m. There was no inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.9 C/km. The hodograph shows the low-level shear is 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes), and the deep layer shear is 119 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and low humidity this morning. The skies are mostly cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable
The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems though there is low pressure to our west, creating a strong pressure gradient across the state. The RAP shows that the pressure gradient will weaken over the next six hours.
The critical thicknesses chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that most of the critical thickness contours are south of the Albuquerque Metro area. Most of the precipitation in this region will be snow.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong southwesterly flow over the state today.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows a backdoor cold front sneaking into the eastern and northern parts of the state by this afternoon.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity forecasts snow, particularly north of the I-40 corridor.
The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak in upper 30s today.
The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 10-20 F range. Outside of the Albuquerque Metro area, the dewpoints will drop into the single digits. We still have that one small plume of moisture over the city and along US 550.
The HRRR shows gusty winds are possible this evening, particularly along the mountain ridges.
The HRRR shows that the skies are expected to remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout the day.
The winter storm hits today and will linger through at least tomorrow evening. I’m not looking forward to it. I have to drive a lot over the next two days. Thankfully, I will remain mostly below the Albuquerque Metro area where the snow will not be as deep. Stupid winter storm, go away, nobody likes you.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD