Yesterday was warm, sunny and still. By the evening a few clouds had rolled in from the west, but it was still a pleasant night.
This morning has been mostly sunny, mild and still. There are a few clouds to my west.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature near 84 F. Winds will be calm, becoming west at 5 mph in the afternoon. Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 52 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph. Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming north in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 47 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.
The Albuquerque NWS office has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning an approaching from the northeast. This will bring some gusty winds east of Albuquerque, lower temperatures, and a dusting to the Sangre de Cristo mountains (above 9500′).
The visible satellite imagery shows only a few clouds over the state, and most of them are to my west.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a humid layer from 600 mb to 500 mb. There was 0.76 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no of Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1782 m. There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 29 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 47 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to directional changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are mostly sunny, and the winds are light and variable. A few stations in the western part of the state are reporting cloudy skies.
The surface pressure chart shows high pressure over Colorado, and a moderate pressure gradient into New Mexico. The RAP shows that this pressure gradient will tighten over the next six hours, particularly in the northeastern corner of the state.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate zonal flow as a weak jetstreak passes through the center of the state.
NAM 850 mb chart shows strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) in the form of a backdoor cold front moving into the area this afternoon and evening. This will drop temperatures quite a bit, and produce some windy conditions in the eastern part of the state.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows storms will form by mid-afternoon hours. Most of the central I-25 corridor will see showers and thunderstorms.
The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid 80’s F.
The HRRR shows that the Albuquerque Metro will become humid, as moisture aloft falls as rain later this afternoon.
The HRRR shows strong wind gusts will be possible today, particularly in the southeastern corner of the state.
The HRRR shows that skies will be cloudy over the Albuquerque Metro area by this evening.
Today will be a textbook example of a back door cold front. It will approach from the Great Plains and impact the northeastern corner of the state first, with stronger winds, a sharper pressure gradient, and of course, lowering temperatures. Ahead of the front, additional orthographic lift and ample moisture will lead to showers and thunderstorms.
Thank you for reading my post.
Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD
