Yesterday, I spent the entire day in chemical process safety training. I am under the impression it was a pleasant, warm, sunny day, but I was inside a conference room all day. The evening was clear, mild and still in Forsyth, IL, and so we watched the International Space Station (ISS) pass overhead again this evening.
This morning has been warm, still and sunny. There are a few high clouds here in Forsyth, IL.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Lincoln, IL, forecasts (for Decatur, IL) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 6-8 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 74% chance of showers and thunder, with a low temperature of 68 F. Winds will be from the south-southeast at 5 mph.
The NWS in Chicago, IL, forecasts (for Chicago, IL) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 72 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows that a few thicker clouds have moved into the state from the northwest, associated with deeper moisture.
The water vapor imagery shows that deeper moisture is moving into the state from the northwest.
The 12Z sounding is unavailable at this time.
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are mostly clear, and the winds are light. There are no major frontal boundaries present.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state, so far this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure is expected to drop, statewide, with diurnal heating, over the next six hours. No strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows moderate zonal flow over much of the state, as a weak jetstreak moves over the northern part of the state this afternoon.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no major thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is unlikely, statewide through 00 Z. However, notice that rain is expected just over the western border into Iowa and Missouri. This will move into Illinois after 00Z.
I will spend some of the day indoors at various safety talks, again today. I do expect warm, humid, still and mostly sunny skies today. However, there is a frontal boundary and precipitation over Nebraska and Kansas this morning ahead of a low pressure system that is moving our direction. We may see some showers and thunderstorms later this evening and tomorrow morning.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD