Central New Mexico Weather: 8/18/19

Yesterday was hot, moderately humid, and mostly sunny.  There were a few clouds that formed in the afternoon and evening, giving me a little shade to work in the garden.

This morning has been mostly sunny, warm and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Very little change from yesterday.  Unseasonably dry air has drifted into New Mexico.  The dry air will support very few clouds, thus raising the temperatures to record levels.  The subtropical ridge axis runs east to west, just south of New Mexico, preventing moisture from advecting north.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 96 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5 mph, becoming north by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 99 F.  The winds will be from the north east at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 675 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming west by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning near-record high temperatures today.  There is a Heat Advisory in place near Roswell, as temperatures will reach 105 F.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows an inverted-v pattern, with a nearly-saturated layer at 525 mb.  There was 0.47 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2422 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 25 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 32 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, zonal flow over the state this morning.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few, very isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.  Even so, they barely show up on the chart, so this chart, as well as the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid-90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop into the 20s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts a few clouds this evening, particularly in the southern half of the state.

Dry air has returned.  It will be hot, but not humid, so maybe today will be tolerable.  I need to do some yard work, and I might go for a run in a few minutes as well.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Satellite Image of the Week 2019 #33

This week’s image was taken a few hours ago over Nebraska

Notice the sharp convection along I-80 in western Nebraska. That one bubbling storm looks to be on a pocket of rapidly-rising air, and is worth watching for the next few hours. There have been no storm reports on this cell so far, and maybe there won’t be any, now that the sun has set and diurnal heating has ended. The crispness of that updraft looked intense, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a hail report pop up later.

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:  College of DuPage – Meteorology

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Central New Mexico Weather: 8/17/19

Yesterday was hot, moderately humid, and mostly sunny.

This morning has been mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Unseasonably dry air has drifted into New Mexico.  The dry air will support very few clouds, thus raising the temperatures to record levels.  The subtropical ridge axis runs east to west, just south of New Mexico, preventing moisture from advecting north.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming light and variable by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 97 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a  sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning near-record high temperatures today.  There is a Heat Advisory in place near Roswell, as temperatures will reach 105 F.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows an inverted-v pattern, with a nearly-saturated layer at 500 mb.  There was 0.55 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2413 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 12 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 27 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state this morning.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few, very isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.  Even so, they barely show up on the chart, so this chart, as well as the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid-90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 30s F throughout the day.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts very few clouds this evening.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Dry air has returned.  It will be hot, but not humid, so maybe today will be tolerable.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 8/16/19

Yesterday was hot, moderately humid, and mostly sunny.

This morning has been mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The upper-level high will continue deform, diffuse and weaken, allowing more dry air to enter the state from the northwest.  This will limit precipitation.  Storms may form, but they will be high-based and dry.  However, this type of storm could yield a few virga bombs.  Also, the temperatures will rise to dangerous levels in the eastern plains today.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming light and variable by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 97 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few possible storms.  A few storms may have gusty winds and hail.  Storms are more isolated today.  Also, a Heat Advisory is in place due to the hot temperatures over the Eastern Plains.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly-saturated layer from 500 mb to 350 mb, with drier air below.  There was 0.68 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1551 m.  There was a thick thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.2 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 7 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 7 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state this morning.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few, very isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.  Even so, they barely show up on the chart, so this chart, as well as the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid-90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop from the upper 40s F to the upper 30s F throughout the day.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts very few clouds this evening.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

 

Dry air is slowly returning to the state.  The chance of storms will be significantly lower today as compared to yesterday.  It will be hot and start to dry out significantly today.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 8/15/19

Yesterday was hot, moderately humid, and mostly sunny.  There were a few evening showers and thunderstorms about, but we never had more than an occasional drop. In Rio Rancho, the evening was mostly clear.

This morning has been mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The upper-level high will deform, diffuse and weaken, allowing more dry air to enter the state.  Temperatures will increase and moisture will decrease, particularly in the northern part of the state.  Moist air will linger south of I-40, meaning isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming south after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming west at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, becoming south at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning storms that will be possible south of I-40.  A few storms may have gusty winds and hail.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid atmosphere below 400 mb.  There was 0.79 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 124 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -606 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 630 m.  There was a thick thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 13 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 20 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows high pressure over eastern New Mexico, with a slight pressure gradient to the south and west.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state this morning.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, particularly in the southern half of the state.

The Nested NAM 24-hour precipitation chart shows a little rain is possible south of I-40.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F throughout the day.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts only a few lingering clouds this evening.

Dry air is slowly returning to the state.  The chance of storms will be significantly lower today as compared to yesterday.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 8/14/19

Yesterday was hot, moderately humid, and mostly sunny.  The evening was mostly clear and pleasant as well.

This morning has been mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Early morning convection in the eastern plains is already occurring, with one severe thunderstorm warning in place.  An outflow boundary has drifted into the northeastern corner of the state, triggering the severe weather.  Moisture is still rich over most of the state, increasing the likelihood of storms, compared to yesterday’s model runs.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be party cloudy, with a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 96 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, becoming southeast at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 87 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, becoming southeast by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning storms that will form over the high terrain and drift into the eastern plains.  Storms can become severe, with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather for the eastern half of the state today.

The visible satellite imagery shows a severe thunderstorm with an overshooting top in progress over eastern New Mexico.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid atmosphere below 500 mb.  There was 0.84 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 7 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -631 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1785 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.6 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 17 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows high pressure over eastern New Mexico, with a slight pressure gradient to the south and west.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state this morning.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows that there was a back door cold front over the eastern part of the state this morning, but it has begun to fade.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, forming over the high terrain and drifting east.


The Nested NAM 24-hour precipitation chart shows scattered showers over most of the state by this evening.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will start in the upper 40s F and then rise into the 50s F throughout the day.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts partly cloudy skies for most of the state by this evening.

It will be hot.  I don’t think as much dry air made its way into the state yesterday, and so now the threat of severe weather has increased for today, as compared to what was expected yesterday.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central New Mexico Weather: 8/13/19

Yesterday was hot, moderately humid, and mostly sunny.  The evening was mostly clear and pleasant as well.  We sat outside and chatted until well after sunset.

This morning has been mostly sunny, mild and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  High pressure has drifted over southwestern New Mexico, bringing dry air with it.  A little moisture remains in the west, which may lead to a dry thunderstorm or two over the high terrain.  Moisture has not decreased in the eastern plains, so the moisture and upslope flow may contribute to a few showers and thunderstorms over the eastern plains.  Storms are expected to remain below severe limits.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming calm in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 96 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming west in the evening.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming west by midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the Rio Grande River Valley this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows that the moisture has decreased, as compared to yesterday’s sounding.  There was 0.70 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 271 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -489 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1034 m.  There was a moderately thick thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.2 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 2 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 31 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state this morning.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today.  This, and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F today.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will start in the upper 40s F, but will drop into the upper 30s F this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows that strong gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts very few clouds today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

It is hot, but not quite as humid.  The monsoon pattern has broken for a few days, and dry air will continue to drop dewpoints and lessen the chances for rain or storms.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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