Central New Mexico Weather: 1/22/20

Yesterday was cloudy, cool and still.

This morning, the weather has been foggy, cold, and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The pattern has settled down again, though there is some dense fog (and potentially freezing fog) this morning.  Abundant moisture is in place, and a weak upper level disturbance will bring some light snow (no accumulation) to the northern mountains.  This afternoon will be windy as the disturbance passes.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 54 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 47 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Dense Fog Advisory this morning.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few lingering clouds, particularly over the eastern third of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and high surface humidity.  The skies are cloudy (foggy) at most stations (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients at this time, though the northeastern corner of the state is under low pressure and a sharp pressure gradient.  The RAP shows that the low pressure over northeastern New Mexico will continue to push east over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong northwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is light, and the little there is will end n the next few hours.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 40s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s F right before sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the lower 30s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible this morning, particularly along the central mountain chain.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared imagery shows skies will clear later this morning.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The pattern is a bit quieter today than yesterday, with northwesterly flow, clearing skies, and decreasing humidity.  As the low over northeastern New Mexico moves east this afternoon and evening, the winds will decrease.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Model Analysis: 1/21/20-1/28/20

It is time to look at the long term GFS model data covering Central New Mexico.  The pattern appears to be active, but with little moisture available (after today), precipitation is very isolated and unlikely in NM.

The temperature will reach into the upper 40s and low 50s F starting Friday or so.

The low temperatures will not vary much.  Temperatures will drop into the low 30s F in the Albuquerque Metro area.

The dewpoint is at its peak now in the mid 30s F, but will drop into the lower 20s F through the beginning of next week.

The skies will begin to clear, though they may cloud up again Sunday, and then again Tuesday.

Precipitation will be unlikely through the beginning of next week.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Synoptically speaking, there will be several shallow troughs, though NM will mostly remain under northwesterly flow aloft.  However, Sunday, we will be under a ridge.

At the 500 mb level, there is strong vorticity ahead of Tuesday’s trough. This strong vorticity is moving to the east, and the strong Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA) will boost convection and precipitation chances.

At the 850 mb level, we can see some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) blowing into the state from the north next Tuesday, behind the trough.  Nothing particularly noteworthy, however, and so this image has been excluded from today’s post.

Overall, the weather will be quiet for a few day.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
College of Dupage – Numeric Models, accessed 1/21/20.

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Central New Mexico Weather: 1/21/20

Yesterday was sunny, cool and still.

This morning, the weather has been cloudy, cold, and still. It hasn’t started raining yet, but it could at any moment.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Strong moisture advection ahead of a shortwave trough will lead to widespread rain and snow showers in the state, starting this morning.  The first disturbance will cause precipitation this morning, but then lighten up towards the afternoon as it passes.  The second disturbance will hit this evening, bringing even more precipitation to the area.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a cloudy day, with a 90% chance of morning snow showers (< 0.5″), shifting to rain by the afternoon, and a high temperature of 40 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and a low temperature of 32 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a cloudy day, with a 90% chance of showers and a high temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 34 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a cloudy day, with a 90% chance of showers and a high temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 34 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a cloudy day, with a showers likely and a high temperature of 40 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 31 F.  The winds will be from the west at 15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued Winter Weather Advisories for several places.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows most of the state is under heavy cloud cover this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly-saturated column all the way up.  There was 0.49 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 607  m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.1 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 21 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 62 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are cloudy at most stations (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under high pressure, with a slight pressure gradient from east to west.  The RAP shows that the pressure will remain high, but that the gradient will weaken over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is likely through the afternoon.

The 10:1 snow model shows accumulating snow at high elevations.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 40s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 30s F right before sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 30s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared imagery shows cloudy skies all day, though the coverage will decrease later this evening.

Today will be messy.  It’s a bad time to remember that I have a truck full of stuff that needs to be driven to the property yard, as it will be wet.  Ugh.

Otherwise, the temperature will remain nearly constant today, breaking 40 F, bu then not dropping below 30 F.  It should be cloudy and still.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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April 2008 Storm Chase Archive, Part II

I still don’t have my weather station, so I decided to post a few more old 2008 storm predictions.

Instead, I found my old 2008 paper notebook with storm predictions.  Here are a few of my earlier predictions of severe weather.  While I have been chasing since 2003, I was not very involved with the forecasting until 2007 or so.

4/9/08
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a 15% hatched area for the tornado risk. SPC has a Moderate Risk from central TX to south central OK. Based on this, everything points to Young County, TX, home of my first tornado intercept. SPC says there is a cold air mass moving across OK/TX and a closed low over AZ/NV. The low will push the air mass into warm, moist air. CAPE is expected to reach 2500 J/kg, with 40-50 kt deep layer shear. I would target Young County, TX.

Tornadoes:
Tye, Taylor Co., TX 20:30
Tye, Taylor Co., TX 20:35
Breckenridge, Stevens Co., TX 22:16
Graford, Palo Pinto Co., TX 23:50
Soper, Choctaw Co., OK 00:10
Kent, Choctaw Co., OK 00:20

4/16/08, 7:06 am
Meager change for storms today. SPC has a tiny area of Slight Risk and 2% Tornado Threat area over south central KS. I’m not going to look at too much. There is a plume of moisture going up through the center of the plains, though it is weak. There is no residual CAPE to work with, it would all need to develop today. There is a long cold front and a shortwave approaching however. I would target Kiowa, KS.

Nothing.

4/17/08, 7:24 am
SPC has a Slight Risk for north central TX and central OK. There is a 5% Tornado Threat area for this area as well. The southern end looks too capped to do anything (-20). They expect deep layer shear to be sufficient, provided storms stay ahead of the cold front. Cells which lag behind will get undercut by the cold front. Frontal motion is delayed by a developing surface low near the NM/CO border. I would target Ardmore, OK.

Update 4/18/08, 7:49 am
Tornado in Aledo, Parker Co., TX at 025. System went linear almost immediately.

4/21/08, 7:29 am
The models are divided today. SPC says if the cap can be broken, there will likely be a triple point around NW OK. They have a good portion of OK, SE KS, W MO in a Slight Risk, and 5% chance of tornadoes. There will be MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg, dewpoints over 60 F, and a cold front/dryline will intersect a shortwave. CIN is already high (-20 to -150) in parts of OK and TX. I would target Ponca City, OK.

No tornadoes, but hail in southern KS. Nothing else.

I’ll post more of these for my own records, just in case I lose my old notebook.

Thank you for reading my post.

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Central New Mexico Weather: 1/20/20

Yesterday was sunny, cool and still.

This morning, the weather has been mostly cloudy, cold and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The weather is still stable, with cool temperatures, light winds, and mostly cloudy skies.  Quiet weather is expected again today, even with the incoming clouds.  This will all change tomorrow.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5 mph.  This evening will be cloudy, with a low temperature of 30 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be cloudy, with a low temperature of 32 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be cloudy, with a low temperature of 34 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) increasing clouds, with a high temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be calm, becoming southwesterly at 5 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be cloudy, with a low temperature of 30 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a few Winter Weather Advisories for patches of light snow, particularly in the western and northern parts of the state.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows clouds over most of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows high pressure over the western Colorado, but no strong pressure gradients over the state.  The RAP shows we will remain under high pressure for at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong northwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation shows some light rain in western NM this afternoon.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 40s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 30s F right before sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will climb into the lower 30s F by this evening.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared imagery shows clouds over most of the state, and they will increase through the night.

Today will be quiet, calm, and cool.  It will be cloudy today ahead of the next winter system.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Weather Video of the Week: #3, 1/19/20

Once again, Australia is the focus of the Weather Video of the week.  This time, instead of wildfires, it’s destructive hail.  Golf-ball hail is nothing to mess around with, and judging by some of the cars, some of it was larger than that.

Thank you for reading my post.

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Central New Mexico Weather: 1/19/20

Yesterday was sunny, cool and still.

This morning, the weather has been mostly sunny, cool, and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  The weather is still stable, with cool temperatures, light winds, and mostly sunny skies.  Quiet weather is expected again today.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 46 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 24 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 52 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 24 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows high clouds, particularly over the central part of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry boundary layer, with a humid layer from 500 mb to 250 mb.  There was 0.27 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 737  m.  There was a small but deep thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 1.8 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 8 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 38 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and low surface humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows high pressure over the central Great Plains, creating a slight pressure gradient from northeast to southwest across New Mexico.  The RAP shows that the high pressure will weaken and move eat, weakening the gradient across New Mexico in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong northwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is not expected today.  This, the snow prediction chart and precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 40s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 20s F right before sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will climb into the upper 20s F by this evening.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared imagery shows clouds will taper off, with maybe a few high clouds this evening.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be quiet, calm, and cool.  I might do a few things outside, though it might be soggy and muddy, as there is still some snow on the ground here.  I may go for a run here in a few minutes as well.

Some clouds will drift into the state by early tomorrow morning ahead of the next system.  The next system may bring with it winter precipitation on Tuesday.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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