Eclipse Weather

We arrived at Dwyer Junction Rest Area, WY, just before midnight last night, under clear skies and a large crowd.  We will see what happens later today, but, I can’t imagine these clear skies clouding up in the next four hours.

I have limited internet access here today, as there is quite a large crowd of people in a rural area so I will skip the full forecast.

Thank you for reading my post.

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Video of the Week: 8/20/17

This week’s video appeared on my Facebook feed, and it is quite awesome.  Enjoy!

Thank you for reading my post.

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New Mexico Weather: 8/20/17

Yesterday, the weather was warm and partly cloudy in Rio Rancho and Albuquerque.  There were a few showers and thunderstorms in the distance, but we never received any rain in Rio Rancho.

 

This morning has been mild, still, and mostly cloudy.  The sky is almost overcast.

 

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 80 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 72 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 54 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 72 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 54 F. Winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS has issued a few Flash Flood Watches for counties in the lower Rio Grande River Valley, as rain today may cause some flash flooding.  Everywhere else in the Albuquerque watch area is under a Hazardous Weather Outlook for locally heavy rains later this afternoon.  The Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

 

The visible satellite imagery shows that most of the of the state is under heavy cloud cover this morning.

 

The infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud layer is quite thick.

 

The water vapor imagery shows that deep moisture has returned, and that the 400 mb to 700 mb layer is damp.

 

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly saturated atmosphere this morning, with an inverted-v type sounding, as there was some drier air near the surface.  There was 0.91 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 13 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -414 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.1 C/km.

 

The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 10 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to a mix of speed and directional changes).

 

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are cloudy in many locations, and the Doppler RADAR is showing some rain in the southwestern part of the state.  Winds are light, and there is a bulge of moisture into the eastern plains.

 

The surface pressure chart shows that we are under slightly lower pressure, with a slight pressure gradient in the northwest.  The RAP shows the pressure dropping everywhere and the pressure gradient decreasing over the next six hours.

 

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows  southwesterly flow over the state today, as a new trough and upper-level low form over southern California, pumping moisture into our area from the Pacific.

 

The 500 mb NAM chart shows some vorticity, though it doesn’t appear to be moving anywhere fast.

The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that heavy rain is likely over much of the state today.

 

Today will be a rainy mess.  We are headed north, hopefully out of the rain and clouds to find ourselves a good spot to view the solar eclipse.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Satellite Image of the Week #33

This week’s satellite image shows a mid-latitude cyclone over Wisconsin.  If you think this looks like a hurricane, you are correct in your analysis; it is similar to a hurricane in structure.  However, unlike a hurricane, the area of concern for a storm like this is the warm sector- the area between the warm front and the trailing cold front.

Here is the visible satellite image:

Here is the water vapor imagery:

 

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:  College of DuPage – Meteorology

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New Mexico Weather: 8/19/17

Yesterday, the weather was warm and mostly sunny in Socorro.  It was beautiful weather, and I did not spend nearly enough time outside, yet again.  I did sit outside and read in the evening.  By the evening, a few clouds had developed, making for another nice sunset.

 

This morning has been mild, still, and mostly cloudy.  The sky is behind a thin blanket of clouds this morning.

 

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 58 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 64 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS has issued a few Flash Flood Watches for counties in the lower Rio Grande River Valley, as rain today may cause some flash flooding.  Everywhere else in the Albuquerque watch area is under a Hazardous Weather Outlook for locally heavy rains later this afternoon.  The Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows a few scattered clouds embedded in a blanket of thin clouds over most of the state this morning.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no very thick clouds, but there are thin clouds over most of the state, as we saw in the visible satellite imagery.

 

The water vapor imagery shows that deep moisture has returned, and that the 400 mb to 700 mb layer is damp.

 

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively damp boundary layer, with extremely dry air above 400 mb.  There was 0.85 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 155 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -361 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.3 C/km.

 

The hodograph shows that there was 20 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 10 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

 

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (the clouds are thin enough for the sensors to see through them), and the winds are light at this time.  There is a dryline running east of the central mountain chain, raising the humidity in the Eastern Plains.

 

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning.  The RAP shows low pressure will cover most of the state (1004 mb) over the next six hours.

 

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal to slightly southwesterly flow over the state today.

 

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible over a stripe of the state from southwest to northeast.  This matches up with the edge of the lowest pressure on the RAP.

Today will be partly cloudy and I am expecting some rain today.  Hopefully enough to grow my garden, but not the weeds, though it seems to be the opposite way around these days.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Tropical Update: 8/18/17

It is time for another tropical update.

In the Atlantic and Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows three areas of activity in the Atlantic.

The strongest area of activity is Tropical Storm Harvey, with sustained winds of 40 mph and a central low pressure of 1005 mb.  Current forecasts indicate limited strengthening due to moderate shear over the next few days.  However, strengthening will be possible as the storm slows before making landfall in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.

The remaining two threat areas are over the open waters of the Atlantic.  One zone (the orange x) stands a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, and the other (the yellow x) stands a 10% chance over the next 48 hours, or a 30% chance over the next five days.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Kenneth continues to move west over open waters, with sustained winds of 40 mph and a central low pressure of 1005 mb.  Shear is weakening, and given warm ocean temperatures and humid air, this storm is expected to strengthen over the next 48 hours.  After that, it is expected to encounter stable air and begin to weaken.

The Central Pacific has one area of potential development southeast of Hawaii.  This zone has a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

Thank you for reading my post.

References:
Satellite Imagery: NOAA – Satellite and Information Services
Hurricane Data:  National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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New Mexico Weather: 8/18/17

Yesterday, the weather was warm, humid, and mostly sunny in Rio Rancho.  It was beautiful weather, and I did not spend nearly enough time outside.  By the evening, a few clouds had developed, making for another nice sunset.

This morning has been mild, still, and mostly sunny.  There were a few clouds at sunrise this morning in Rio Rancho.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming calm in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 64 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph, becoming east after midnight.

 

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over the state this morning.  There are a few thin clouds in the central and southern parts of the state.

 

The water vapor imagery shows mostly dry, zonal flow across the state, though some moisture is becoming pulled in from northern Mexico; there is more moisture and it is reaching farther north than it did yesterday.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively dry atmosphere this morning, with an inverted v shape and a moisture peak at around 600 mb.  There was 0.68 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a moderately thick, but weak thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 1 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 28 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear, and the winds are light at this time.  There is a dryline running east of the central mountain chain, raising the humidity significantly in the Eastern Plains.  Tucumcari, Clovis, Roswell, etc. are quite humid.

The surface pressure chart shows that there is high pressure over the NM/CO border, but no strong pressure gradients over the state.  The RAP shows the pressure falling everywhere (perhaps too quickly) over the next six hours, with no strong pressure gradients developing during that time.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is unlikely over the entire state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be sunny, warm and pleasant over much of the state. The Rio Grande River Valley will remain dry today.  Hopefully, I will get to spend a little time outside today in the pleasant weather, but I am doubtful that I actually will.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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