Central New Mexico Weather: 7/11/20

Yesterday was mostly sunny, hot and dry.

This morning, the weather has been mostly sunny, hot and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A mid-level high pressure system will persist over the state, keeping us hot, dry and mostly clear today.  Temperatures will approach and break records today and through the next few days.  A few clouds, showers and thunderstorms are possible, particularly over the northeastern corner of the state, though a few are possible in the southwest as well.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature around 102 F. The winds will be calm, becoming westerly at 5 mph this afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 71 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of around 105 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 75 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph becoming northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph becoming southerly this afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 99 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly in the evening.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the record-breaking and near-record heat over most of the state today.  They have also issued Heat Advisories for several areas today and tomorrow.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry boundary layer, with a weak inverted-v signature with no nearly-saturated layers.  There was 0.44 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 3166 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.0 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 12 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 17 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with low humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are still.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, northwesterly flow over the state.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show no strong thermal advection this afternoon.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the northeastern part of the state.

There may be a little rain with the few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the 100s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 20s F and lower 30s F all day.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible near the thunderstorms this afternoon.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few clouds associated with the showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Today will be hot and dry.  I will be inside most of the day today.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central New Mexico Weather: 7/10/20

Yesterday was mostly sunny, hot and dry.

This morning, the weather has been mostly sunny, warm and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A mid-level high pressure system is building over the state, keeping us hot, dry and mostly clear today.  Temperatures will approach and break records today and through the next few days.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature around 102 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming west this afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 68 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of around 104 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 71 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph becoming westerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 98 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming westerly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the record-breaking and near-record heat over most of the state today.  They have also issued Heat Advisories for several areas today and tomorrow.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows a few isolated cumulus clouds over the southern part of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows an inverted-v shape, with a nearly-saturated layer at 550 mb.  There was 0.44 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2757 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.0 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 26 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 20 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with moderately-low humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are still.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, zonal to northwesterly flow over the state.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show no strong thermal advection this afternoon.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows shower and thunderstorms are unlikely today.  This, and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 20s F and lower 30s F all day.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows very few clouds over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be hot and dry.  I will be inside most of the day today.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central New Mexico Weather: 7/9/20

Yesterday was mostly sunny, hot and dry.  It wasn’t as breezy as advertised yesterday, which is a good thing, as there is a new wildfire in the Manzanos.

This morning, the weather has been mostly sunny, warm and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A mid-level high pressure system is building over the state, keeping us hot, dry and mostly clear today.  Temperatures will approach and break records today and through the next few days.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with high temperatures around 100 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be clear, with low temperatures in the lower 60s F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of around 102 F. The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with patchy smoke and low temperatures in the lower 70s F.  The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperatures in the upper 50s F to upper 60s F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with high temperatures in the 90s F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperatures in the mid 60s F to lower 70s F.  The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the record-breaking and near-record heat over most of the state today.  They have also issued Heat Advisories for several areas today and tomorrow.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few lingering clouds in the southeast.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows an inverted-v shape, with a nearly-saturated layer at 500 mb.  There was 0.54 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2892 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 16 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 34 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with moderately-low humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are still.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, zonal to northwesterly flow over the state.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show no strong thermal advection this afternoon.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows shower and thunderstorms are unlikely today.  This, and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 20s F and lower 30s F all day.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows very few clouds over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be hot and dry.  I think I’ll take the opportunity to do some work inside today, though I will go for a run in a few minutes before it gets too hot.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central New Mexico Weather: 7/8/20

Yesterday was mostly sunny, hot and humid.  The humidity dropped throughout the day, and a few clouds provided a little relief from the sun.

This morning, the weather has been mostly sunny, mild, humid and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A mid-level high pressure system is drifting east into the state today.  This high pressure system will usher in hot, dry air.  Temperatures will reach record or near-record levels.  There may be some gusty winds along I-40 as well, as an upper-level trough crosses through the Northern Rockies and strengthens surface flow in New Mexico.

For whatever reason, the NWS is showing forecasts as hydrologic zones instead of point forecasts.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with high temperatures in the 90s F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with low temperatures in the upper 60s F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with some patchy smoke and a high temperature of around 100 F. The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with patchy smoke and low temperatures in the upper 60s F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day with some patchy smoke.  This afternoon, it will turn partly cloudy, with high temperatures in the upper 80s F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly this afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, becoming clear, with a low temperatures in the upper 50s F to upper 60s F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with patchy smoke and high temperatures in the mid 90s F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperatures in the mid to lower 60s F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning hot weather for the next few days.  Temperatures will reach record or near-record levels over the next few days.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows an inverted-v shape, with a thin, nearly-saturated layer at 500 mb.  There was 0.41 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2164 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 32 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with moderate humidity.  The dryline runs just east of my house, with a dewpoint of 30 F here, but a dewpoint of 48 F a few miles east.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, zonal to northwesterly flow over the state.  The zonal flow over the northern half of the state will be stronger than the northwesterly flow in the south.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show no strong thermal advection this afternoon.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today.  The simulated reflectivity chart and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop from the 40s F into the low 30s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clouds will be few and far between.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be sunny and hot.  The NWS mentions gusty winds, but it is not showing up in the NAM.  However, the NAM does show stronger flow aloft, so, with deep mixing, it could get breezy.

I have appointments all day, so I will look at it all from the cool side of the glass.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central New Mexico Weather: 7/7/20

Yesterday was mostly sunny, hot and humid.  The breeze picked up in right around sundown.

This morning, the weather has been mostly sunny, mild, humid and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A mid-level high pressure system is drifting east into the state today.  This high pressure system will usher in hot, dry air.  A few thunderstorms are possible east of the central mountain chain this afternoon.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a  high temperature of 99 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, becoming light and northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 100 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 68 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly in the evening.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms and a high temperature of 93 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly this afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, becoming westerly after midnight

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms and a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly in the evening.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be strong, with lightning, large hail and damaging winds as the the primary threats.  They also issued a Special Weather Statement concerning a dome of high pressure that will lead to high temperatures and dry air beginning today and extending through the rest of the week.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few lingering clouds in the southeast.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere below 400 mb.  There was 0.79 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 1 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -627 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1661 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 21 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 20 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with high humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, zonal to northwesterly flow over the state.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show no strong thermal advection this afternoon.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart showers and thunderstorms are possible today, particularly east of the central mountain chain.

Precipitation is possible with the thunderstorms, though rainfall amounts are not tremendously high.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 80s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop from the 50s F into the lower 30s F, but then back into the 40s F as the dryline moves back and forth over the Albuquerque Metro area.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible near the afternoon thunderstorms.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few clouds are likely, associated with the afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Today will be warm, humid, and mostly sunny.  I have a bunch of work to do both inside and outside, and so today will be a hot, probably unpleasant one for me.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Weather Data: 6/29/20-7/5/20

Time for my 13th week of weather station data!  No lost data this week (thankfully), but there was also no “weather” this week- sunny skies and not a drop of rain.

The temperatures and the dewpoints show a steady rise throughout the week, with the high temperature on Sunday.  The dewpoints it a plateau on Friday or so, and then decreased slightly for Sunday.

We received no rain this week, so the precipitation chart has been excluded from this week’s post.

The wind chart shows afternoon gusty winds, with the strongest gusts on Monday and Sunday.  The wind was originally out of the southwest, but then shifted to the northeast and northwest, depending on the day.

The high pressure was 30.08 in Hg (~1019 mb) on Saturday afternoon, and the lowest pressure was on Monday evening, reaching down to 29.71 in Hg (~1006 mb).

There were sunny skies all week.

Thank you for reading my post.

Posted in Weather Station | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Central New Mexico Weather: 7/6/20

Yesterday was mostly sunny, hot and humid.  The breeze picked up for a bit in the afternoon, with some nearby virga.

This morning, the weather has been mostly sunny, mild and still.  It is humid again today.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Moisture is still advecting westward, and the central mountain chain will be the focus of afternoon thunderstorm development.  Storms are expected to develop along the mountains due to weak upslope flow, but then the steering winds will send them to the east and southeast.  Shear is low, but a strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 98 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly in the evening.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly after midnight

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms will be strong, with lightning, large hail and damaging winds as the the primary threats.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few lingering clouds in the southeast.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere below 550 mb.  There was 0.77 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 83 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -473 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1781 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.6 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 14 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 21 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with high humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems, though there is a moderate pressure gradient from east to west this morning, across the northwestern corner of the state.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, zonal flow over the state.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show some Cold Air Advection (CAA) from the east.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart showers and thunderstorms are possible today, particularly east of the central mountain chain.

Precipitation is possible with the thunderstorms, though rainfall amounts are not tremendously high.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 80s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F all day.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible near the afternoon thunderstorms.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few clouds are likely, associated with the afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Today will be warm, humid, and mostly sunny.  We might see an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.  I will be stuck inside in meetings all day, so I won’t mind if my plants get some rain.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Weather Video of the Week: #27, 7/5/20

This week’s video is probably the most scenic tornado I’ve seen this year.   (I didn’t personally see it, but I’ve seen this video floating around for the last few days.)

Note:  I do not own this video.

I challenge you to find a more beautiful tornado video in 2020.   2020 has been a rough year for storm chasers (but a good year for those living in the Great Plains) and so there have been very few tornadoes to film.  Most of the storm chase video I have seen this year has been from Canada, as there have been a few storms there.

Thank you for reading my post.

Posted in Weather Video | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central New Mexico Weather: 7/5/20

Yesterday was mostly sunny, hot and humid.  In the evening, a few clouds appeared, but there was no rain, so we sat outside on the tailgate of the truck and watched fireworks over the city.

This morning, the weather has been mostly sunny, mild and still.  It is humid again today.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Yesterday’s convection did produce a mesoscale high pressure, just like Friday’s, though the moisture advection is not as strong today.  Easterly surface winds will raise the dewpoints a little, but deep mixing and dry air aloft will temper this moisture advection.  Showers and thunderstorms will not be as widespread today as they were yesterday.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly this afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a  high temperature of 98 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly in the evening.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly after midnight

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may become severe, particularly along the eastern border of the state.  Lightning, large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for an area in eastern New Mexico this afternoon.  Very isolated, borderline severe storms are possible, though shear is a limiting factor.  Storms may have additional strength near outflow boundaries and areas of differential heating.  The primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few, isolated cumulus clouds in the southeastern corner of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere below 550 mb.  There was 0.80 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 236 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -344 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1401 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 18 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 23 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with high humidity.  The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems and gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart show light, zonal to northwesterly flow over the state.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show little thermal advection over the state today.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart showers and thunderstorms are possible today, particularly east of the central mountain chain.

Precipitation is possible with the thunderstorms, but this is mostly contained in the eastern half of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the mid 90s F.

The low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F all morning and into the early afternoon.  Then, the dryline will push east for a few hours, dropping the dewpoints into the upper 30s F, but then will retreat west, increasing the dewpoints back into the 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible near the afternoon thunderstorms.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few clouds are likely, associated with the afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Today will be warm, humid, and mostly sunny.  We are going to do some barbecuing today and probably working on our RV.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Satellite Image of the Week 2020 #27

This week’s image was taken this morning over the northeastern Mexico.

I’ve considered chasing in Canada in the past, as the Great Plains extends into Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but I’ve not really considered chasing south of the border. Often, there is not enough moisture, though there is today. These storms will likely remain below severe limits, but it is sometimes easy to forget that Mexico gets occasional severe storms as well.

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:  College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Satellite Imagery | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment