Yesterday was a day of transition. It was quite warm in the morning, but then cooled off and rained along my road trip to Datil. I camped out in my car overnight and it was chilly, and I had to run the heat in the car at one point near sunrise.
This morning has been still, sunny, and mild so far this morning. There are a few high cirrus clouds in the sky, as seen through the antenna at our amateur radio Field Day site:
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and (potentially severe) storms, and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of isolated showers and (potentially severe) thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 63 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, becoming south after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and (potentially severe) storms, and a high temperature of 83 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of isolated showers and (potentially severe) thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 58 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and (potentially severe) storms, and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the east at 10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of isolated showers and (potentially severe) thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 62 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of severe thunderstorms through most of the state this afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to develop over the Continental divide and the Central Mountain chain, and trek southeast. Heavy rains, gusty winds, large hail, and even a brief tornado are possible with these storms.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Enhanced Risk for the central mountain chain and east, where gusty winds and large hail are the primary threats.
Associated with the Enhanced Risk is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring.
The visible satellite imagery shows continuous cloud cover east of the central mountain chain.
The infrared satellite imagery shows very few thick clouds at this time. The big blanket of clouds in the east is very thin.
The water vapor imagery shows a plume of moisture over the western half of the state that does not correspond to the cloud cover.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows that some moisture has returned to the area. There was 0.82 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 426 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -286 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.9 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 20 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 24 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, and moderately-high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear in the west and cloudy in the east. We have southeasterly (backing) winds into the Enhanced Risk area.
The surface pressure chart shows a moderate pressure gradient across the state this morning as a back door cold front washes up in the central part of the state. The RAP shows that a thermal low will intensify along the Arizona border, intensifying the pressure gradient over the next six hours.
CAPE is looking to climb to 4000 J/kg, according to the RAP, and there are some southerly helicity swaths moving across I-40, according to the HRRR.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows light zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. There is a trough to our north, but it will not punch south into New Mexico.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there is no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of rapidly-rising air over much of the western part of the state by 18 Z.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows that the Cold Air Advection (CAA) is not as strong today.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain will be possible for much of the central part of New Mexico by 00 Z.
We are planning on heading east to US-84 and chasing storms later today. I will post later depending on how we do. Wish us luck!
Thank you for reading my forecast.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD