Yesterday was sunny, mild and still. It did not get as cold last night as I had expected, and was already in the 30’s when I woke up this morning.
This morning has been mostly sunny, cold and still.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 59 F. The winds will from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of precipitation (rain turning into up to an inch of snow), and a low temperature of 27 F. The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of precipitation (up to 0.5 inches of snow), and a low temperature of 33 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of precipitation (up to an inch of snow), and a low temperature of 25 F. The winds will be from the west at 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph.
The NWS has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook, Special Weather Statement and several other products concerning the changing weather this weekend. Today, there are Red Flag Warnings in place for the Eastern Plains for the above average temperatures, low humidity and strong winds. There are High Wind Warnings in place for much of the Eastern Plains, where the humidity is higher (reducing the fire threat), but where high winds are still predicted. Also, the western part of the state has Winter Weather Advisories ahead of the approaching cold front, and Chama has a Winter Storm Warning in place. New Mexico is a mess today! The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite image shows clear skies over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The infrared satellite image shows that there are thin clouds over the state. They are hard to distinguish on the image, it has been excluded it for today’s post.
The enhanced low-level water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is moist air over the Four Corners region. Moisture will continue to move in from the west ahead of the approaching cold front.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively dry atmosphere. There was 0.22 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1533 m. There was a large thermal inversion above the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.9 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 13 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 60 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies are clear (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and generally from the north.
The surface pressure chart shows that there are two separate low pressure systems- one is a lee-side low over eastern Colorado and one is over southern Utah. These are expected to merge over the next six hours, according to the RAP. There are no sharp pressure gradients expected for the next six hours, so the stronger winds will come much later in the evening.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that a line of precipitation is expected to form ahead of the cold front, bringing rain and snow to much of the state. The line of precipitation is over the Rio Grande River Valley by 05 Z.
The HRRR snow forecast has light snow accumulation through 07 Z, though more is probably expected, as 07 Z is as far as the model extends.
The HRRR has the high temperatures around 23 Z. High temperatures will approach record levels today, reaching into the low 60’s in the Albuquerque Metro area.
The HRRR shows gusty winds in the western part of the state, peaking at around 22 Z ahead of the cold front.
Today will be sunny and mild. The winds will pick up in the mid afternoon, and then the colder temperatures and precipitation will arrive. I think I’ll stay indoors tonight, build a fire in the wood stove and read a book!
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD