Yesterday was hot and sunny, with strong winds in the afternoon.
This morning has been mostly sunny, cool and still. There were a few cirrocumulus clouds along my commute from Socorro to Albuquerque.
National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 58 F. Winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, and then decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph, and gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 53 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 20-25 mph, gusting as high as , but then decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 20-30 mph, and gusting as high as 40 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph, gusting as high as 35 mph, but then decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the high winds and severe storm potential today. They have also issued a few Wind Advisories, as shown in the Watches and Warnings graphic below:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Elevated Fire Risk for the northeastern third of the state today. This threat is due to the dry, windy conditions we will experience by this afternoon.
The SPC has also issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather through the eastern third of the state today. The primary threat will be locally heavy rainfall and minor flash flooding.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.
The infrared satellite imagery shows clouds developing over the northwestern quarter of the state this morning.
The water vapor imagery shows moisture returning to the state in the pre-trough environment. This is similar to what we saw yesterday over Utah and Arizona.
The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows the atmosphere continues to moisten, with a moisture peak at 600 mb. There was 0.47 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present. There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.1 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 23 kt of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 70 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The winds are light, and there are no major frontal boundaries present over the state, though there is a strong dryline in the eastern third of the state.
The surface pressure chart shows that we are under low pressure this morning, with a moderate pressure gradient ahead of this trough. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop, the gradient ill weaken slightly, but the winds will increase over the next six hours.
Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows moderate southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching trough.
The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.
The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.
The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible, particularly in the eastern third of the state by 00 Z.
Today will be breezy ahead of this approaching trough. Given the strong dryline in the east, the trough, and the moisture return, there is a chance of organized storms by this afternoon. I’m not sure that there will be enough moisture for large hail or tornadoes (I expect the LCLs to be high), but the shear is more than enough to produce a few organized cells.
Thank you for reading my post.
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD