Boulder, Colorado Weather: 7/16/18

Yesterday was cloudy, rainy and mild until the evening.  Even though I predicted “no observations” and we cancelled time at the observatory, the skies cleared up in the evening.  It was a pretty sight!

This morning has been partly cloudy, mild and still.

The NWS in Boulder, CO, forecasts a mostly sunny day, with a 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 87 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 3-8 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the west north northeast at 5 mph, becoming calm after midnight.

The NWS in Boulder, CO, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning isolated showers and thunderstorms, few of which will actually impact the Denver Metro area. The northeastern corner of the state may see a severe thunderstorm or two.

The visible satellite image shows some a few lingering clouds over the eastern half of the state, but very few over the Denver Metro area.

The 12 Z upper air sounding from Boulder shows a saturated, foggy boundary layer.  There was 0.73 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was 289 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -165 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 76 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.2 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 9 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 15 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity, based on the dewpoints.   The skies are cloudy and foggy in the eastern third of the state, and clear otherwise. The winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.   The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected over Colorado.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state today.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows scattered storms firing around 21 Z and continuing into the evening.  The Denver metro area could  be affected by these storms off and on throughout the late afternoon and early evening.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for Boulder will peak in the upper 80’s by 22 Z.

The HRRR dewpoints will hit their peak in the low 50’s.

The HRRR shows that the winds in the Denver area will remain light.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The NAM shows skies clearing up by our data collection time at the observatory.

The HRRR shows significantly less cloud cover through the observation window.

Today will be warm and mostly sunny.  A few clouds may drift into our area in the evening, but there will be an opportunity for observations this evening.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Boulder, Colorado Weather: 7/15/18

Yesterday was hot and sunny.  All crews were able to collect data at the observatory last night.

This morning has been overcast, mild and still.

The NWS in Boulder, CO, forecasts a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 79 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-8 mph, becoming calm after midnight.

The NWS in Boulder, CO, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning isolated showers and thunderstorms in the area.  The primary threat will be heavy downpours, though a few stronger storms may produce 1″ diameter hail and 60 mph gusts.  The NWS has also issued several Flash Flood Watches.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The 12 Z upper air sounding from Boulder shows a nearly saturated layer at 500 mb.  There was 0.90 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was 37 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -519 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1280 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.3 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 4 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 11 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity, based on the dewpoints.   The skies are cloudy over the northern half of the state, and the winds are variable.

The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.   The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected over Colorado.

Currently, the College of DuPage website is down.  If this was a severe weather day, I would look elsewhere, but for now, I will go ahead and end the post.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Satellite Image of the Week #28

This week’s Satellite Image of the Week shows a thin line of clouds off the Florida coast.  This line of clouds is due to the overnight land breeze draining into the ocean, and becoming more humid as it crosses the Gulf Stream.

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:  College of DuPage – Meteorology

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Boulder, Colorado Weather: 7/14/18

Yesterday was warm and did not cloud up much at all.

This morning has been sunny, warm and still.

The NWS in Boulder, CO, forecasts a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the east northeast at 5-7 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-7 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight.

The NWS in Boulder, CO, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning isolated showers and thunderstorms in the area.  The primary threat will be heavy downpours.  Storms will be quite isolated; hot and dry weather will dominate today.

The visible satellite image shows no clouds over the Denver Metro area.

The 12 Z upper air sounding from Boulder shows extremely dry air above 500 mb.  There was 0.85 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was 104 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -405 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1020 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 8 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 16 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity, based on the dewpoints.   The skies are clear, and the winds are generally southerly, statewide.

The surface pressure chart shows that there is a slight high pressure system over Eastern Colorado, but no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning.   The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected over Colorado.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows northerly flow over the state today as broad, upper-level high pressure lingers over the southwest.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows scattered storms firing around 21 Z, but none are expected to impact the Denver Metro area.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for Boulder will peak in the mid-90’s by 22 Z.

The HRRR dewpoints will hit their peak in the upper 40’s by 15 Z.  After that, the diffuse dryline moves east.

The HRRR shows that the winds in the Denver area will remain light.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The NAM shows a few clouds, but probably not enough to affect the observations this evening.

The HRRR concurs.

Today will be hot.  A few clouds may move in over night, but the skies will clear for observations.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Boulder, Colorado Weather: 7/13/18

Yesterday was warm and partly cloudy.  We did get a little rain in the afternoon, but it was clear in time for observations in the afternoon.

This morning has been sunny, warm and still.

The NWS in Boulder, CO, forecasts a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 85 F.  The winds will be from the east northeast at 3-8 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the east northeast at 5-7 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight.

The NWS in Boulder, CO, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning isolated showers and thunderstorms in the area.  The primary threat will be heavy downpours.

The visible satellite image shows some clouds over the western half of the state today, but very few over the Denver Metro area.

The 12 Z upper air sounding from Boulder shows a nearly saturated layer at 500 mb.  There was 0.91 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was 48 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -381 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 472 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 12 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 21 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity, based on the dewpoints.   The skies are clear, and the winds are generally southerly, statewide.

The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.   The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected over Colorado.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows northwesterly flow over the state today as broad, upper-level high pressure forms over the southwest.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows scattered storms firing around 21 Z, with a few showers impacting the Denver Metro area by 01 Z.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for Boulder will peak in the upper 80’s by 22 Z.

The HRRR dewpoints will hit their peak in the low 50’s by 16 Z.  After that, the diffuse dryline moves east.

The HRRR shows that the winds in the Denver area will remain light.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The NAM shows a few clouds, but probably not enough to affect the observations this evening.

The HRRR concurs.

Today will be a warm, but not as hot as it has been for the last week.  There may be an afternoon shower, though the skies will clear in time for observations.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Boulder, Colorado Weather: 7/12/18

Yesterday was hot and sunny.  A few clouds drifted in the late evening, but the participants of the Summer Science Program could still make observations.

This morning has been sunny, warm and still.

The NWS in Boulder, CO, forecasts increasing clouds, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 6-9 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the west northwest at 5-9 mph, becoming light and west after midnight.

The NWS in Boulder, CO, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area.  The primary threat will be heavy downpours.

The visible satellite image shows some clouds over the western half of the state today, but very few over the Denver Metro area.

The 12 Z upper air sounding from Boulder shows a nearly saturated layer at 450 mb.  There was 0.99 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was 2 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -400 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1158 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.1 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 4 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 10 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity, based on the dewpoints.   The skies are clear, and the winds are generally southerly, statewide.

The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.   The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected over Colorado.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows weak, northerly flow over the state today.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows scattered storms firing around 21 Z and continuing into the evening.  The Denver metro area will be affected by these storms off and on throughout the late afternoon and early evening.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for Boulder will peak in the upper 80’s by 23 Z.

The HRRR dewpoints will hit their peak in the mid 50’s.

The HRRR shows that the winds in the Denver area will remain light.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The NAM shows skies partly cloudy during our observation window, clearing out towards the end.

The HRRR shows significantly less cloud cover through the observation window.

Today will be a warm, but clouds will begin to form in the early afternoon.  Showers and thunderstorms are possible, but in the low shear environment, they are expected to remain below severe limits.  The left-over anvil material may block the early shift’s observation’s, but I bet middle and late shift run for sure.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Boulder, Colorado Weather: 7/11/18

Yesterday was hot and sunny.  The students had no issues with observations last night.

This morning has been sunny, warm and still.

The NWS in Boulder, CO, forecasts a mostly sunny day, with a 10% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the west at 6-8 mph, becoming east northeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the east northeast at 5-7 mph, becoming light and variable after midnight.

The NWS in Boulder, CO, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning hot, dry weather again today.

The visible satellite image shows no clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12 Z upper air sounding from Boulder shows a drier atmosphere today as compared to yesterday.  There was 0.52 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1287 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.3 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 14 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 23 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity, based on the dewpoints.   The skies are clear, and the winds are generally southerly, statewide.

The surface pressure chart shows that there are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.   The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected over Colorado.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows varied, light flow over the state today.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows no precipitation is likely today in the Denver Metro area.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for Boulder will peak in the mid 90’s by 23 Z.

The HRRR dewpoints will hit their peak in the mid 40’s by 16 Z.

The HRRR shows that the winds in the Denver area will remain light.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The NAM shows skies partly cloudy during our observation window, clearing out towards the end.

The HRRR shows significantly less cloud cover through the observation window.

Today will be a warm, sunny and still.  I am tending towards the skies being even drier than the HRRR seems to think.  The storms will stay to our west, and I just don’t see those clouds lingering for long.  All teams will probably observe tonight.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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