Illinois Weather: 7/26/17

Yesterday, I spent the entire day in chemical process safety training.  I am under the impression it was a pleasant, warm, sunny day, but I was inside a conference room all day.  The evening was clear, mild and still in Forsyth, IL, and so we watched the International Space Station (ISS) pass overhead again this evening.

This morning has been warm, still and sunny.  There are a few high clouds here in Forsyth, IL.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Lincoln, IL, forecasts (for Decatur, IL) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 6-8 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 74% chance of showers and thunder, with a low temperature of 68 F. Winds will be from the south-southeast at 5 mph.

The NWS in Chicago, IL, forecasts (for Chicago, IL) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 72 F. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows that a few thicker clouds have moved into the state from the northwest, associated with deeper moisture.

The water vapor imagery shows that deeper moisture is moving into the state from the northwest.

The 12Z sounding is unavailable at this time.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear, and the winds are light.  There are no major frontal boundaries present.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state, so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure is expected to drop, statewide, with diurnal heating, over the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows moderate zonal flow over much of the state, as a weak jetstreak moves over the northern part of the state this afternoon.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no major thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is unlikely, statewide through 00 Z.  However, notice that rain is expected just over the western border into Iowa and Missouri.  This will move into Illinois after 00Z.

I will spend some of the day indoors at various safety talks, again today.  I do expect warm, humid, still and mostly sunny skies today.  However, there is a frontal boundary and precipitation over Nebraska and Kansas this morning ahead of a low pressure system that is moving our direction.  We may see some showers and thunderstorms later this evening and tomorrow morning.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Long Range Forecasting: 7/25/17-8/1/17

It is time to look ahead at the long range forecast, as told by the GFS model.

The next week will be hot, though precipitation is possible most days this week.  It is pretty much a repeat of last week, and I am changing very little (again this week!)

The 300 mb GFS shows weak zonal to no flow aloft almost the entire week.  There will be an upper-level high pressure system parked over the state this week, and most of the stronger flow will go north of this high pressure system.

The 850 mb GFS charts show that the temperature will be warm over the next week.  The closest we have to cooler air pokes in from the northeast in the early morning hours on Friday.  However, it barely qualifies as a back door cold front, and, according to the GFS, will be short-lived.

The Precipitation charts show that there are chances of precipitation over the Rio Grande River Valley most days over the next week.  By next Tuesday evening, we may start to see slightly lower chances of rain for a few days, though that will be covered in next week’s post.

New Mexico will be hot, with weak winds and possible showers and thunderstorms on most days.   Shear will remain weak through this week, limiting the severe storm potential.

Thank you for reading my post.

GFS Model Data is from Unisys Weather

A Few Photos

I took several long-exposure lightning photos a few days ago.  I have no photo editing software (other than MS Paint) on this computer, but I will show you these photos anyhow.

The first of the photos is of rainfall near a monsoonal thunderstorm north of Tucumcari, NM.

The remaining photos are of the lightning in low storms near Stratford, TX:

Thank you for reading my post.

Illinois Weather: 7/25/17

Yesterday, we drove through mostly sunny skies and warm, still weather from eastern Kansas into central Illinois, without any incident.  The evening was clear, mild and still in Forsyth, IL, and so we watched the International Space Station (ISS) pass overhead.

This morning has been warm, still and sunny.  There are virtually no clouds this morning.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Lincoln, IL, forecasts (for Decatur, IL) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 84 F.  The winds will be from the east-southeast at 6-8 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the east-southeast at 3-5 mph.

The NWS in Chicago, IL, forecasts (for Chicago, IL) a sunny day, with a  high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be from the east-southeast at 5-10 mph, gusting to 15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 68 F. Winds will be from the south at 10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that the air is almost uniformly damp across the entire state this morning.

The 12Z sounding is unavailable at this time.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear, and the winds are light.  There are no major frontal boundaries present.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state, so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure is expected to drop, statewide, with diurnal heating, over the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows weak northerly flow.  Even though the polar jet is to the north, there is a weak, elongated region of higher wind velocities extending through the whole of Illinois by 00 Z.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no major thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is unlikely, statewide through 00 Z.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be warm, humid, and still across Illinois.  I will spend some of the day indoors at various safety talks, but will do an industrial plant tour in the afternoon and tomorrow.  Those will be hot.  I don’t expect any showers or thunderstorms today.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Fort Scott, KS, to Forsyth, IL, Weather: 7/24/17

Yesterday, we had a rain-free and hot day across southern Kansas.  We ended the night in Fort Scott, KS, and were treated to a beautiful sunset:

This morning has been warm, still and sunny.  We will travel from Fort Scott, KS, to Forsyth, IL, today, in this weather.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Springfield, forecasts (for Fort Scott, KS) a hot, sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-7 mph.

The NWS in St. Louis, MO, forecasts (for St. Louis, MO) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the north at 6 mph.

The NWS in Lincoln, IL, forecasts (for Forsyth, IL) a mostly clear evening, with a low temperature of 62 F. Winds will be  from the east-northeast at 5-7 mph.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds over our travel route so far this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that deep moisture will remain to our south today, though there will likely be plenty of boundary-layer moisture, according to the surface dewpoints.

The 12Z soundings are unavailable at this time.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderately-high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear, and the winds are still.  There are no major frontal boundaries along our travel route so far this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over our route so far this morning.  The RAP shows that no strong pressure systems or gradients are expected to develop over our travel route in the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows weak flow aloft over our route today.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no major thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is unlikely along our route today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today, we will most likely through sunny, warm, and still weather.  I don’t expect many clouds, though we might get a few in the evening.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Video of the Week: 7/23/17

This week’s video commemorates the fourth anniversary of the so-called, “Hurricane Green  Chile.”  On 7/26/13, we had two outflow boundaries interact, right in the middle of the Rio Grande River Valley.  There was an 89 mph wind gust recorded.

At the time, my awesome boss was on a motorcycle.

Thank you for reading my post.

 

Guymon, OK, to St. Robert, MO, Weather: 7/23/17

Yesterday, we began our journey towards Illinois.  We ran through patchy rain in eastern New Mexico, and then a few thunderstorms in the Texas Panhandle.  We ended the night in Guymon, OK, due to our frequent stops to view the storm.  For now, here is a quick photo, looking at the sunset through a storm north of Tucumcari, NM:

This morning has been warm, still and mostly cloudy.  Guymon was a pretty scene this morning.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Amarillo, TX, forecasts (for Guymon, OK) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 96 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Wichita, KS forecasts (for Wichita, KS) a cloudy to partly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be calm, becoming 5-8 mph from the northeast by the afternoon.

The NWS in Springfield, MO, forecasts (for St. Roberts, MO) a partly cloudy evening with a low temperature of 70 F. Winds will be  from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows that we will just skirt along the top edge of a Marginal Risk today:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time

The infrared satellite imagery shows thicker clouds associated with morning convection in southeastern Kansas.

The water vapor imagery shows that that there is plenty of moist air along our path today.

The 12Z sounding from Norman, OK, shows a humid atmosphere again this morning.    There was 1.73 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 1859 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -188 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.5 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 18 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 12 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderately-high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are partly cloudy, and the winds are light.  There is one frontal boundary draped through central Oklahoma, as shown in the wind direction shift.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state, so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure is expected to drop, statewide, with diurnal heating, over the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows weak flow aloft over the state today.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no large pockets of rapidly-rising air.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no major thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is possible along our route today.

Today, I will likely run into some rain and perhaps a few storms.  I am really excited to show you the photos from last night’s lightning and stars, and I hope to post them soon.  For now, I need to get on the road.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD