Central New Mexico Weather: 10/21/19

Yesterday was a mostly sunny, warm and breezy in El Paso.  Once the sun set, it turned quite chilly.

The weather is sunny, cool and still over Rio Rancho so far this morning.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Dry, northwesterly flow will continue to dominate the region,  bringing with it clear skies, strong winds, and below-average temperatures.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-25 mph and gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 33 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 20-25 mph, decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 70 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Wind Advisories and a Special Weather Statement concerning a hard freeze.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Risk for a small ring in east central New Mexico.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry atmosphere this morning.  There was 0.16 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2242 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.3 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 21 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 103 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cold temperatures and very low surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop slightly with diurnal heating, and no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong northwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no new thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that storms and precipitation are unlikely.  This, and the precipitation chart are excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 60s F today.

The temperature is expected to drop into the lower 30s F before sunrise.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the single digits all day.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible all day.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly clear skies today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be cooler than yesterday, but not quite as windy.   No precipitation is expected.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Southern New Mexico Weather: 10/20/19

Yesterday was a beautiful day.  I spent a bunch of it working in my shed, which is semi-outdoors.

Today, we are traveling down to Deming, NM, and El Paso, TX, to watch a steam train (Union Pacific 4014) pass through.  We need to leave early in the morning, so this will be an abbreviated post, featuring mostly model data.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph, increasing to 20-30 mph, and gusting to 45 mph this afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but then decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for Deming, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 78 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-23 mph, gusting to 32 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 40 F.  The winds will be from the west at 16-21 mph, gusting to 29 mph, but then becoming north northeast at 7-12 mph.

The NWS in El Paso, TX, forecasts (for El Paso, TX) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F.  The winds will be from the west at 7-12 mph, then increasing to 17-22 mph and gusting to 31 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the west northwest at 16-21 mph, gusting to 29 mph, then decreasing to 8-13 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued numerous Wind Advisories and Red Flag Warnings, mostly for the eastern half of the state.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no new thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that storms and precipitation are unlikely.  This, and the precipitation chart are excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 50s F today.  We will hit our high temperatures between Deming and El Paso, in the upper 70s F.

The temperature is expected to drop into the mid 30s F before sunrise.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 10s F today.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible all day toady.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly clear skies today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be cooler, clear and windy.  We will be driving into warmer temperatures and lighter winds on the way to Deming and El Paso, then stronger winds and cooler temperatures on our return trip.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, travel | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Satellite Image of the Week 2019 #42

This week’s image was taken a few minutes ago.

The only thing I really wanted to point out on this image is the sun glare. Notice the bright blob over the open ocean? It’s the reflection of the sun, and it moves with time to the southwest. I just thought that was neat, there’s really not much to say about it.

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:  College of DuPage – Meteorology

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Central New Mexico Weather: 10/19/19

Yesterday was a mostly sunny, mild and breezy.  As the front approached, the skies clouded up and we had a few sprinkles of rain in Socorro.

Today is sunny, cool and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Today is shaping up to be a beautiful day, with clear, sunny skies and less wind than yesterday.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 68 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows moisture has decreased with the passage of the cold front.  There was 0.17 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1769 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 3.7 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 22 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 64 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and low surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop slightly with diurnal heating, and no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no new thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that storms and precipitation are unlikely.  This, and the precipitation chart are excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 60s F today.

The temperature is expected to drop into the upper 40s F before sunrise.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 10s F by this evening.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly clear skies today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be pleasant; sunny, mild and not as windy as yesterday.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 10/18/19

Yesterday was a sunny, mild and still.  I spent a few minutes outside, riding in a homecoming parade float for Magdalena High School.

Today is mostly sunny, cool and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A trough and associated dry cold front will move into the state from the northwest today.  This will cause windy conditions due to the frontal passage, but with little moisture, precipitation is not expected.  Temperatures will be cooler tonight and the wind will decrease after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest at 15-25 in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 33 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but then decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west at 15-20 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 40 F.  The winds will be from the north at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 70 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 38 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a few Wind Advisories for east central New Mexico today.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows moisture has increased overnight.  There was 0.49 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1145 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.5 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 21 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 62 kts (a mix of speed and directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and moderate surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under low pressure, with no strong pressure gradients so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the low pressure will remain, and no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate zonal flow over the state today, due to the approaching trough.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no new thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that storms and precipitation are unlikely.  This, and the precipitation chart are excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 60s F today.

The temperature is expected to drop into the low 40s F before sunrise.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will rise into the lower 40s F by this evening.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds will be possible by this evening.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly clear skies today.  A few clouds are expected as the cold front passes this afternoon.

Today will be pleasant, though the winds will pick up starting this evening.  At NMT, it is our annual 49ers celebration, and wind may be a concern.  The temperature will be cooler than last night, and it might be breezy as the front passes.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 10/17/19

Yesterday was a sunny, mild and still.  I didn’t spend much time outside, unfortunately.

Today is mostly sunny, cool and still.  There are a few high clouds, particularly west of Albuquerque.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  A slight trough will pass through the region today and tomorrow, which will lead to strong winds as it passes.  There is little moisture today, so precipitation is unlikely.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming south int he afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a few Red Flag Warnings for the northeastern corner of the state.  High winds and low humidity have prompted this warning.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few high clouds over the western half of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows dry air over the state this morning.  There was 0.19 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1786 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 2.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 14 kts (a mix of speed and directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and low surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong westerly flow over the state today, due to the approaching trough.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no new thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that storms and precipitation are unlikely.  This, and the precipitation chart are excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 70s F today.

The temperature is expected to drop into the mid 50s F before sunrise.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will rise into the lower 40s F by this evening, as moisture advects up the Rio Grande River Valley.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds will be possible by this evening.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly clear skies today.  A few clouds are expected in a long stripe later this morning.

Today will be pleasant, though the winds will pick up starting this evening.  At NMT, it is our annual 49ers celebration, and wind may be a concern.  The temperature will be warmer than last night, but it might be breezy with the approaching trough.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 10/16/19

Yesterday was a sunny, mild and still.  I didn’t spend much time outside, unfortunately.

Today is sunny, cool and still.

From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM:  Yesterday’s cold front has dropped temperatures slightly, though it will still be a sunny, mild, still day.  A dry air mass has settled over state and there is very little chance of precipitation.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F.  The winds will be light and variable.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 40 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 75 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 43 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  These images have been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows dry air over the state this morning.  There was 0.19 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1777 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.0 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 6 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 16 kts (a mix of speed and directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows cool temperatures and low surface humidity.  The skies are a sunny (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are under slightly high pressure, with no strong pressure gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northerly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no new thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows that storms and precipitation are unlikely.  This, and the precipitation chart are excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 70s F today.

The temperature is expected to drop into the upper 40s F before sunrise.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain into the upper 10s F and lower 20s F today.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds will be unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts mostly clear skies today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

It is another beautiful, dry, still, autumn day here in New Mexico.  This evening will be chilly and clear.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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