Yesterday was hot, mostly sunny and still.
This morning, Jersey, VA, has been mild, mostly sunny and still.
From the NWS in Sterling, VA: A few isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, with damaging winds, torrential rain and the possibility of flooding as the primary threats.
The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a mostly sunny, with a high temperature of 91 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 8-11 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 73 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 3-6 mph.
The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Warsaw, VA) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be calm from the southeast at 10-13 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 72 F. The wind will be from the south at 8 mph.
The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Kilmarnock, VA) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-14 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a low temperature of 73 F. The wind will be from the south at 10 mph.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for parts of Virginia today. The primary threats are damaging winds and torrential downpours.
The visible satellite imagery shows a cloud deck over most of Virginia this morning.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling, VA, shows a nearly-saturated layer below 400 mb. There was 1.71 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 43 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -233 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 287 m. There was a small thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 18 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 37 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Observations Map shows mild temperatures and high relative humidity. The skies are a sunny, (according to the sensors) with light, southwesterly winds.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients are present. The RAP shows that this trend will continue for the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northerly flow over the state, as air circulates around the upper-level high.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a line of storms passing through this afternoon.
The Nested NAM simulated precipitation chart, shows the line between precipitation and no precipitation is near King George county, so we may or may not see rain.
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the Northern Neck will rise into the upper 80s F by this afternoon.
The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s F by tomorrow morning.
The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will rise into the 70s F.
The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely, except near the afternoon thunderstorms. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a thick band of convection later this afternoon.
Today will be mostly sunny, though a line of marginally-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
I will be moving boxes from inside to outside, and will probably have to pause for the thunderstorms.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD