Central New Mexico Weather: 11/14/18

Yesterday was cold, sunny and still.

This morning has been cold, sunny and still as well.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 25 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 52 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 26 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 46 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 24 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming west by midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere with no saturated layers.  There was 0.17 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 754 m.  There was a small but thick thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.1 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 9 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 30 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show extremely cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure has settled over the state, with no strong pressure gradients in any direction.  The RAP shows that this will persist for at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light northwesterly flow over the state as an upper-level low continues east through Texas and the Deep South.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows that the cold air has finished its westward run.  There is no more Cold Air Advection (CAA), and so this chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid 50s F.

HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will remain low, reaching only into the low teens F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that a few clouds may drift into the area this afternoon and evening.

Today will remain chilly, but sunny and still.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 11/13/18

Yesterday was cold, breezy, and there were some snow flurries in Rio Rancho in the morning.  The evening was clear and cold.

This morning has been clear, cold, and just enough breeze to make things even colder.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon.  Tonight will be clear, with a low temperature of 20 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be clear, with a low temperature of 21 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 38 F, though wind chills may reach -1 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 16 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the near-record, or record-breaking cold temperatures tonight.

The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere with no saturated layers.  There was 0.14 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 437 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 13 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 78 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show extremely cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure has settled over the state, with no strong pressure gradients in any direction.  The RAP shows that this will persist for at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong northerly flow over the state as a trough passes through the area.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows that the cold air has finished its westward run.  There is no more Cold Air Advection (CAA), and so this chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid 40s F.

HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will remain low, reaching only into the low teens F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies will remain clear all day. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will remain incredibly cold.  I’m not a fan, though the weather never asked me.  It will be sunny, and the only saving grace is that the winds will be light.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 11/12/18

Yesterday was cool, breezy, and a little rainy in the evening.  There was a nice display of clouds over the mountains at sunset:

This morning has been cloudy, cold, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a cloudy morning, becoming a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of snow (< 0.5″) in the morning, and a high temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 16 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a cloudy morning, becoming a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 15 mph.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 18 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming northwest by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy morning, becoming a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of snow (~1″), and a high temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 14 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming northwest by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a several Winter Storm Watches and Winter Storm Warnings east of the central mountain chain.  Temperatures will reach record cold, or nearly record cold for this date.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows clouds over the eastern 2/3 of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly saturated layer from 700 mb to 550 mb.  There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 550 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.6 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 14 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 86 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure over the state, and a strong pressure gradient to the south.  This will only intensify, with high pressure reaching 1042 mb in the next six hours, according to the RAP.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong northerly flow over the state as a trough passes through the area.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) over the state this afternoon and evening.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that snow showers will decrease throughout the morning.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid 30s F.

HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will remain low, reaching only into the low teens F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies will clear up by the afternoon.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the 10:1 Ratio Method and the Kuchera Method only show trace amounts of snow for the rest of this event.  These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The NAM critical thicknesses will almost all be far enough south for snow, and the question will be how much moisture is present.

The snow is about finished, but the cold temperatures are here for a few more days.  I put my faucet covers on the outdoor faucets, and will likely wear a flannel shirt all day today under my coat.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Video of the Week #46

I lost count of these a long time ago, but this is the 46th week of the year, so there it is.

The big story this week is the wildfires in California.  I have watched this particular video quite a few times, and it still amazes me.  It is amazing to me how quickly these fires spread and the unfortunate destruction they have caused.

Our thoughts and prayers are with the folks in CA.

Thank you for reading my post.

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Central New Mexico Weather: 11/11/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, mild and still.  It was a cold evening.

This morning has been mostly sunny, cold, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of rain, and a high temperature of 53 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with 30% chance of snow (< 0.5″), and a low temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 54 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 19 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a several Winter Storm Watches and Winter Storm Warnings east of the central mountain chain.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows fog over the southern part of the state, and a few thin clouds over the Albuquerque Metro area this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that the boundary layer was moderately humid humid, but the air was much drier above 700 mb.  There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 550 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 26 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 62 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems, but a slight pressure gradient to the northeast. The RAP shows that low pressure will develop over the state in the next six hours, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing the wind speeds.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate zonal flow over the state.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) over the state this afternoon and evening, as a back door cold front approaches from the northeast.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that snow showers will develop this afternoon, east of the central mountain chain.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid 50s F.

HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will rise throughout the day, reaching into the mid 20s F by the early afternoon.  They will drop off in the evening with the dropping temperature.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are possible through the middle of the day, particularly west of the Rio Grande River Valley.

The HRRR shows that the skies will cloud up by this afternoon ahead of the cold front.

The HRRR shows that the 10:1 Ratio Method forecasts snow accumulation is likely east of the mountains:

The HRRR shows the Kuchera Method predicts accumulation in greater amounts.

The NAM critical thicknesses will almost all be far enough south for snow.  The limitation will be the moisture west of the central mountain chain.

Today will be a day of transition, as this back door cold front will remind us that winter is coming.  It will be a significant travel hazard in the northeastern part of the state.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Satellite Image of the Week #45

This week’s Satellite Image of the Week shows a strong boundary across the Mid-Atlantic.

Unfortunately, I did not capture enough information to determine what was happening exactly.  Either way, I really liked this image.

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:  College of DuPage – Meteorology

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Central New Mexico Weather: 11/10/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, mild and still.  It clouded up in the evening.

This morning has been partly cloudy, cold, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 35 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 35 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 54 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 33 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a large Winter Storm Watch concerning a winter storm that will strike tomorrow, dumping up to a foot of snow above 7500′ in the Sangre de Cristo mountains, and up to 6 inches in the northeastern corner of the state.  The Albuquerque area may see some snow tomorrow evening.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows fog over the southern part of the state, and a few thin clouds over the Albuquerque Metro area this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows that the boundary layer was quite humid, but the air was extremely dry above 600 mb.  There was 0.31 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1624 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 3.8 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 17 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 16 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), except for a few foggy stations in the south, and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure over most of the state, with a steep pressure gradient in the northeast.  The RAP shows that the high pressure system will weaken with diurnal heating, and that the gradient will decrease over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate zonal flow over the state.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the next 24 hours.  There will be some Cold Air Advection (CAA) in the form of a backdoor cold front tomorrow, but today, there is none.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid 50s F.

HRRR shows that the the dewpoints will rise throughout the day, reaching into the low 30s F by the early afternoon.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the few clouds we have this morning will mix out by the late morning hours.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be another pleasant, autumn day in central New Mexico.  Winter will probably arrive tomorrow for a few days, so enjoy today while you can.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment