Oklahoma City, OK, to Rio Rancho, NM, Weather: 1/24/21

I’m still behind schedule, and I ended the night on a wild goose chase through northeastern Oklahoma. Today, I will need to drive from Oklahoma City to Rio Rancho, but that shouldn’t be too difficult. It is foggy, cool and drizzling here in Oklahoma City.

The NWS in Norman, OK, forecasts (for Oklahoma City, OK) a cloudy day, with a 30% chance of showers, and a high temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the south at 6-8 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy evening, with a 40% chance of snow showers (<0.5 in), and a low temperature of 28 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

Current visible satellite imagery shows thick clouds over my travel route.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows some precipitation along my route.

More concerning is the precipitation type. I need to get rolling soon and hopefully dodge the mountain snow.

The Nested NAM predicts temperatures will rise into the lower 50s F along my route, then drop into the lower 20s F overnight.

The Nested NAM shows that I will remain largely in 30-40 F degree dewpoints until later this evening.

The Nested NAM shows strong wind gusts are unlikely until late this evening. I’m really hoping I am settled at home by then.

The Nested NAM predicts that I will be traveling under mostly cloudy skies all day today.

I am a little concerned about the snow as I approach Clines Corners and the Sandias. I hope I get there before the snow.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Memphis, TN, to Amarillo, TX, Weather: 1/23/21

My lolly-gagging around has put me well behind schedule, and today is the day of gaining some ground. I need to get from Memphis to Amarillo today (and I started the day 100 miles east of Memphis).

The NWS in Memphis, TN, forecasts (for Memphis, TN) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 50 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Nashville, TN, forecasts (for Memphis, TN) a mostly clear evening, with a low temperature of 34 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10 mph.

Current visible satellite imagery shows that I will be driving towards cloudy skies.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows some very light precipitation along my route. More will develop across Arkansas and Tennessee later today, but hopefully, I will be well west of it before it forms.

The Nested NAM predicts temperatures will rise into the upper 40s F along my route, then drop into the lower 30s F overnight.

The Nested NAM shows that I will drive into a humidity bubble, with dewpoints in the 40s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong wind gusts are possible this evening as I approach western Oklahoma.

The Nested NAM predicts that I will be traveling under mostly cloudy skies in Oklahoma later today.

I need to pick up the pace today. We’ll see how I do.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Satellite Image of the Week 2021 #4

This week’s image was taken yesterday morning over South America.

I don’t spend a lot of time following the large circulation patterns and tracking things like El Nino/La Nina years. However, in this image you can see the lack of clouds over the Peruvian coast in an atmosphere otherwise dominated by cloud cover. To me, this means there is some cold water upwelling, which is expected in a non-El Nino year. I don’t know the extend of how “normal” years compare to El Nino years in this respect, but I thought it was neat anyhow.

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:

College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Bristol, TN, to Memphis, TN, Weather: 1/22/21

I will be traveling from Bristol, TN, to Memphis, TN, today.  Conditions in Bristol are cool and cloudy, with only a light breeze.

The NWS in Morristown, TN, forecasts (for Bristol, TN) a gradual clearing, with a high temperature of 46 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Nashville, TN, forecasts (for Memphis, TN) a clear evening, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph.

Current visible satellite imagery shows clouds streaming in from the southwest.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows little precipitation until the overnight hours.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts temperatures will rise into the mid 40s F, and drop into the upper 20s F overnight.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop into the 20s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong wind gusts are unlikely along my route. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that there will be sunny today along my route. This chart has also been excluded from today’s post.

Today should make for a pleasant, but cool drive across Tennessee. I expect the clouds to continue mixing out. There is high pressure to the northwest over Illinois, which will clear out, dry out and lower the temperature across Tennessee.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Jersey, VA, to Nashville, TN, Weather: 1/21/21

I will be traveling from Jersey, VA, to Nashville, TN, today.  Skies are cloudy, but the temperature is pleasant here in Jersey this morning.

The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a mostly sunny, with a high temperature of 53 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 8-10 mph, gusting to 22 mph.

The NWS in Nashville, TN, forecasts (for Nashville, TN) a mostly cloudy evening, with a low temperature of 35 F.  The winds will be calm

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows little precipitation until the overnight hours.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts temperatures will rise into the lower 50s F, and drop into the lower 30s F overnight.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will rise into the lower 40s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong wind gusts are possible this evening, as I cross through the Appalachian Mountains.

The Nested NAM predicts that there will be sunny today along my route, but then cloudy this evening in Tennessee.

Today should make for a pleasant, but cool and partly cloudy this morning, becoming clear and cool this afternoon, breezy over the mountains, and increasing clouds this evening.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Northern Neck, Virginia Weather: 1/20/21


Yesterday was cool, sunny and breezy.

This morning, Jersey, VA, has been cool, sunny and breezy. The trees are swaying.

From the NWS in Sterling, VA:  A cold front will finish passing through the region this morning, and high pressure will build in the afternoon.

The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 47 F. The wind will be from the northwest at 13-20 mph, gusting to 33 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 25 F. The wind will be from the northwest at 5-7 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Warsaw, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 46 F. The wind will be from the northwest at 14-18 mph, gusting to 29 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 25 F. The wind will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Kilmarnock, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 46 F. The wind will be from the northwest at 14-20 mph, gusting to 29 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 27 F. The wind will be from the northwest at 5-8 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The NWS in Sterling, VA, has issued a Gale Warning for the Chesapeake Bay. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows light clouds in a mountain wave pattern to the west. You can see a weak frontal boundary exiting the region to the southeast.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling, VA, shows a nearly-saturated layer from 850 mb to 700 mb. There was 0.27 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 8 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -51 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 740 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 8.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 32 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 80 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Observations Map shows cool temperatures and low relative humidity. The skies are a sunny, (according to the sensors) with a light, northwesterly breeze.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we are under no strong pressure systems, and only a light pressure gradient from southwest to northeast. The RAP shows that the pressure gradient will decrease over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong, northwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving in from the west.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is unlikely. This, and the simulated precipitation chart, have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the Northern Neck will rise into the mid 40s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 30s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain near 20 F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible this morning as the front passes.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows mostly clear skies. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be mostly sunny and cool, with strong winds in the morning. The passage of the front will bring strong winds and slightly cooler temperatures today as compared to yesterday.

I will be stuck indoors almost all day today. I hope to take a break in the afternoon and get a little work done outside.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Northern Neck, Virginia Weather: 1/19/21


Yesterday was cool, sunny and breezy. I never went outside for a minute, as I was stuck in meetings all day.

This morning, Jersey, VA, has been cool, partly cloudy and still.

From the NWS in Sterling, VA:  High pressure will continue to build south of the region, helping to keep our skies clear and dry. There may be some small disturbances later this week, but for now, high pressure dominates.

The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 50 F. The wind will be from the west at 6-10 mph, gusting to 21 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 32 F. The wind will be from the west at 5-8 mph.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Warsaw, VA) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 52 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 6-13 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 32 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 3-6 mph.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Kilmarnock, VA) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 53 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 6-11 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 33 F. The wind will be from the west at 5-7 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows light clouds in a mountain wave pattern to the west.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling, VA, shows varied moisture, with no nearly-saturated layers. There was 0.25 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 749 m. There was a tiny thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.5 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 22 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 123 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Observations Map shows cool temperatures and low relative humidity. The skies are a sunny, (according to the sensors) with a light, southerly breeze.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we under high pressure, with only a light pressure gradient from the southwest to the northeast. The RAP shows that high pressure will persist and the pressure gradient will weaken over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is unlikely. This, and the simulated precipitation chart, have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the Northern Neck will rise into the upper 40s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 30s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain near 30 F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows mostly clear skies. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be mostly sunny and cool, with a little breeze. There might be a few clouds later today, just not enough that it was worth showing the simulated IR graphic- just a few traces.

I will be stuck indoors almost all day today. I hope to take a break and go for a run for a few minutes this afternoon.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Weather Data: 1/11/21-1/17/21

Time for my 41th week of weather station data! 

The high temperature of the week occurred on Saturday afternoon of 59.7 F.  We had a low temperature of 14.9 F on Tuesday night. The dewpoints ranged from 21.4 F to 0 F, Monday afternoon and Sunday night, respectively. It was warming up and drying out by the end of the week.

There was no precipitation last week, so this chart has been excluded.

The strongest winds and the strongest gust (25.1 mph) occurred on Wednesday afternoon.

The high pressure was 30.16 in Hg (~1021 mb) on Tuesday afternoon and the lowest pressure was on Sunday afternoon, dropping down to 29.87 in Hg (~1011 mb). The pressure decreased throughout the week.

It looks like there was sunshine every day last week.

Thank you for reading my post.

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Northern Neck, Virginia Weather: 1/18/21


Yesterday was cool and sunny. I drove to Virginia Beach and walked along the boardwalk- a beautiful day for a walk, not a beautiful day for a swim.

This morning, Jersey, VA, has been cool, partly sunny and still.

From the NWS in Sterling, VA:  High pressure will continue to build south of the region, helping to keep our skies clear and dry.

The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 46 F. The wind will be from the west at 10-13 mph, gusting to 24 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 27 F. The wind will be from the west at 5-8 mph.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Warsaw, VA) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 48 F. The wind will be from the west at 10-14 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 30 F. The wind will be from the west at 6 mph.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Kilmarnock, VA) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 41 F. The wind will be from the west at 11-14 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 32 F. The wind will be from the west at 6 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows light clouds in a mountain wave pattern to the west. You can see that there is sinking air over the eastern half of Virginia, and that the cooler air is draining off the continent, becoming warmer and more humid as it passes over the Gulf Stream.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling, VA, shows a humid atmosphere below 650 mb. There was 0.28 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 315 m. There was no inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 38 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Observations Map shows mild temperatures and low relative humidity. The skies are a sunny in the east and cloudy in the west, (according to the sensors) with a light, westerly breeze.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning. The RAP shows that high pressure to the south will drift northward and expand, raising the pressure in the Northern Neck over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows weak Cold Air Advection (CAA). The winds shift so that they are parallel with the thermal gradient this afternoon.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is unlikely. This, and the simulated precipitation chart, have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the Northern Neck will rise into the mid 40s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 30s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain near 20 F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a thin blanket of clouds off and on all day.

Today will be mostly sunny and cool, with a little breeze.

I will be stuck indoors almost all day today. I hope to get out for a few minutes.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Northern Neck, Virginia Weather: 1/17/21


Yesterday was cool and cloudy, with some rain off and on. I drove through Richmond and then over to Chesapeake, VA.

This morning, Chesapeake, VA, has been cool, partly sunny and still.

From the NWS in Sterling, VA:  High pressure will continue to build south of the region, helping to keep our skies clear and dry.

The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 45 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 9 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 31 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 7 mph.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Warsaw, VA) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 50 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 9-11 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 32 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 5-7 mph.

The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Kilmarnock, VA) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 50 F. The wind will be from the west at 8-11 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 34 F. The wind will be from the southwest at 3-7 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows light clouds in a mountain wave pattern to the west. You can see that there is sinking air over the eastern half of Virginia, and that the cooler air is draining off the continent, becoming warmer and more humid as it passes over the Gulf Stream.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling, VA, shows varied moisture, with a nearly-saturated layer from 850 mb to 750 mb. There was 0.30 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 745 m. There was no inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.9 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 27 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 74 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Observations Map shows cold temperatures and moderately high relative humidity. The skies are a sunny, (according to the sensors) with a light, southwesterly breeze.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we under slightly lower pressure, with no strong pressure gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows this trend will continue for at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong, southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows only very weak Cold Air Advection (CAA), so I have excluded this chart from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows precipitation is unlikely. This, and the simulated precipitation chart, have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the Northern Neck will rise into the mid 40s F by this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 30s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will peak in the upper 30s F this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clear skies this afternoon, but a few clouds forming later this evening.

Today will be mostly sunny and cool, with a little breeze. It will probably look like a warmer day than it actually is outside, which will probably provoke me to go for a short hike somewhere.

I will drive back to Jersey, VA, from Chesapeake, VA, and maybe play on amateur radio again.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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