Yesterday was mostly sunny and cool in Socorro.
This morning, the weather is partly cloudy, cold and still here in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of showers and a high temperature of 56 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly at 15-20 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be cloudy, with an 80% chance of snow (1 – 2 in) and a low temperature of 23 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph. Rio Rancho is under a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM until 5 AM.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be cloudy, with a 40% chance of rain becoming a 60% chance of snow (< 0.5 in) and a low temperature of 27 F. The winds will be from the west at 15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) increasing clouds, with a 20% chance of showers and a high temperature of 52 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be cloudy, with an 80% chance of snow (1-2 in) and a low temperature of 15 F. The winds will be from the west at 15 mph, becoming easterly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) increasing clouds, with 20% chance of showers and a high temperature of 52 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be cloudy, with an 80% chance of snow (1-2 in) and a low temperature of 15 F. The winds will be from the west at 15 mph, becoming easterly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several wind and winter weather products. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over the northern half of the state.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows a winter storm system sagging southeast from the Four Corners region.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid atmosphere. There was 0.25 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1743 m. There was a small thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.8 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 16 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 80 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cold, moderately humid weather. The skies are mostly sunny, with a clouds in the north, (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and generally southerly.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows low pressure over the state, with a strong pressure gradient radiating out in all directions. The RAP shows this trend will continue for the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong zonal flow over the state ahead of the heavily-tilted trough.
The NAM 700 mb temperature chart shows Cold Air Advection (CAA) from the west this evening. Also, a back door cold front will supply additional CAA at the 850 mb level from the northeast.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows bands of convection moving southeasterly through the state.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows that widespread precipitation is anticipated through tomorrow morning.
The Nested NAM snow charts are in good agreement in terms of snow coverage this evening. Snow will be heaviest over the northern mountains, but is expected to impact the Albuquerque Metro area.
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 50s F.
The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 20s F.
The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 10s F, but more humid air is sinking into the state from the northwest..
The Nested NAM shows breezy conditions all day.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows increased cloudiness across the northern half of the state by this evening.
A winter storm will impact the state this afternoon and evening. It will sag southeasterly through the state, dropping the temperature and perhaps a little snow along its way. The storm system will primarily impact the northern half of the state, but snow will be possible as far south as US-60.
I will remain in Magdalena all day, but then drive to Socorro in the evening. I’m hoping to go for an evening walk in Socorro.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD
High Plains Chasing 
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