Central New Mexico Weather: 9/21/22

Yesterday was warm and partly to mostly sunny day in Socorro. A few showers and thunderstorms rolled into the area late at night.

My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly at 10-15 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 57 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 53 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming easterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Flood Watches for the western third of the state. The Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows a blanket of light clouds over the northwestern quadrant of the state this morning.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows the moisture plume has shifted and the entire state has deep moisture available.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, humid weather, with sunny skies over most of the state, and clouds over the northwestern quadrant (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning. The RAP shows the pressure will drop everywhere, weakening the gradient, due to diurnal heating in the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, southwesterly flow over the state today ahead of the next trough.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a few scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, particularly favoring the northern half of the state.

The simulated precipitation chart shows rain is likely over the northwestern corner of the state, with a few patches of heavier precipitation, due to storm training.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 80s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F, perhaps spiking into the low 60s F in some areas this afternoon.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows gusty winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few patches of clouds related to this afternoon’s precipitation.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible today, particularly in the northern half of the state, and maybe favoring the northwestern corner. There is a boundary that the NAM is picking up that runs southwest to northeast through this area, but it isn’t showing up as a thermal boundary on the 700 mb or 850 mb charts.

I will stay around campus today, mostly indoors. I may try to go for an evening walk.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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