Wheatland, MO, to Havana, IL Weather: 7/12/21

We decided to stay again yesterday and get a few more things done for work and school. I took a big bite out of the work I need to do this week, and JoAnna made a lot of progress towards her project, so it was a good break.

I think we will get on the road today.

The NWS in Springfield, MO, forecasts (for Wheatland, MO) a mostly cloudy day gradually becoming sunny, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 3-7 mph.

The NWS in Lincoln, IL, forecasts (for Havana, IL) a mostly cloudy evening, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the north-northeast at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight. Havana is under a Flood Warning.

Current visible satellite imagery shows heavy cloud cover along our route. You can clearly see these clouds circulating around a low pressure system centered in Missouri.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild temperatures and high humidity, with cloudy skies (according to the sensors) and light, variable winds. The winds are circulating around a surface low, found along the I-44 corridor, south of Jefferson City.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows the early morning convection will mix out, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible into this evening.

The Nested NAM predicts temperatures will rise into the mid 70s F, and then decrease to the mid 60s F overnight.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 60s F, perhaps rising into the 70s F, depending on how far east we drive today.

The Nested NAM shows strong wind gusts are unlikely along our route. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the skies are expected to clear out later this morning, and showers and thunderstorms will be isolated through the afternoon and evening.

Regardless, I think there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms along our route, but the NAM seems to have most of the mess to our southeast. Even so, it’s a little cloudier this morning than the NAM predicted, so I bet we see a little rain today.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, travel and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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