Wheatland, MO, to Havana, IL Weather: 7/11/21

We decided to stay put yesterday and not chance trying to beat the storms to the next RV park or rest area. We spent another night in Wheatland, and will continue our trip today.

It turned out to be a good decision, as there was a lot of rain in the area, and a nasty, windy squall line passed through at night. I was just as glad to be tied to shore power at an RV park instead of sitting at truck stop, or having to haul a generator out of the blowing rain in the middle of the night.

I think we will stick to US-54 longer than I originally had thought, so I picked a tentative target of Havana, IL.

The NWS in Springfield, MO, forecasts (for Wheatland, MO) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 6-8 mph.

The NWS in Lincoln, IL, forecasts (for Havana, IL) a cloudy evening, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 64 F.  The winds will be from the north-northeast at 6-9 mph, gusting to 17 mph. Havana is under a Flood Warning.

Current visible satellite imagery shows heavy cloud cover along our route.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild temperatures and high humidity, with cloudy skies (according to the sensors) and light, variable winds.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows the early morning convection will mix out, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible all day as a low pressure system spins over St. Louis.

The Nested NAM predicts temperatures will rise into the mid 70s F, and then decrease to the mid 60s F overnight.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 60s F, unless we drift too close to Saint Louis, where they will be in the 70s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong wind gusts are unlikely along our route. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the skies are expected to clear out later this morning, and showers and thunderstorms will be scattered through the afternoon and evening.

We are debating some routing options, and I may take a different route than the RV for part of this trip. Perhaps our favorite restaurant in the whole country is inconveniently out of our path, and I may take a detour and pick up food anyhow. Missouri Hick BBQ!!

Regardless, I think there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms along our route, but not nearly as widespread and not nearly as severe as yesterday, so I think we were wise to sit out a day.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Severe Weather, travel and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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