Central New Mexico Weather: 8/14/22

Yesterday was warm and mostly sunny in Rio Rancho. I spent the afternoon and early evening messing around in my shed.

This morning, the weather is sunny, mild and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F. The winds will be light and variable, becoming southerly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 93 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 83 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly bymidnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Flash Flood Watches in the southwestern corner of the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clouds over the southwestern corner of the state, but clear, sunny skies elsewhere.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows the moisture plume has shifted to Arizona, with drier air over New Mexico, spinning around an upper-level high over the Texas Panhandle.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, humid weather, with all stations reporting sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are still.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under slightly higher pressure, but no strong pressure gradients this morning. The RAP shows the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northerly flow by this afternoon.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows very isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the western border with Arizona.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain is possible near the border with Arizona.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 90s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will start out in the 50s F, but drop into the 40s in the center of the state this afternoon.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows skies will remain mostly clear and sunny, with a few clouds over the western border this afternoon and evening.

Today will be warm, sunny and still. There may be a few showers and thunderstorms in the west, but very isolated. The only concern with these will be their slow motion and ability to train, so flash flooding may be possible in spots. The NAM and the HRRR both show very isolated storms, with the bulk of the convection over Arizona, rather than New Mexico.

I will do some yard work this afternoon and may go for a run this evening.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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