Yesterday was mostly sunny, warm and still. I spent most of the day inside, minus a little light shopping. A few thunderstorms rolled past in the evening and early morning hours, putting on a lightning show, but no rain fell.
This morning, the weather is sunny, mild and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 10% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph, becoming northeasterly midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 97 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph. T This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 10 mph, becoming southwesterly by midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.
The visible satellite imagery shows a few left-over clouds from the overnight storms in the northwestern corner of the state.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows dry air is pushing east into the state, deforming the moisture plume and limiting it to the NM/AZ border.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere. There was 1.00 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 1 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and -374 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1658 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.9 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 6 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 3 kts (due mostly to directional changes).
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, humid weather, with most stations reporting sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning. There is a slight pressure gradient radiating from a high pressure bubble over northern New Mexico. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, easterly flow as the upper-level high elongates east to west along the NM/CO border.
The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows isolated showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon. Storms are expected to revolve around high pressure along the western edge of the state. Coverage is much more limited today as compared to yesterday.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rainfall will be heaviest in the northwestern corner of the state.
The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 90s F.
The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s F.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will drop into the 40s F.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows partly cloudy skies by this afternoon, particularly in the northwestern quadrant of the state.
The water vapor imagery shows dry air is being pulled east into the state by the upper-level high pressure system. This is deforming the moisture plume from the southwest, limiting moisture to the AZ/NM border and limiting the chances for showers and thunderstorms. Dewpoints will drop 10 F into the 40s F, the skies sunny and the temperatures hot. In the afternoon, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the northwestern corner of the state where moisture remains.
I need to finish up a bunch of things indoors today, but I still may make a trip to the pool and go swimming.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD