Central New Mexico Weather: 6/24/22

Yesterday was cloudy and mild. There were off and on sprinkles and a few rumbles of thunder.

This morning, the weather is mostly sunny, mild and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be light and from the northwest, becoming westerly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 56 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.

The visible satellite imagery is shows some morning convection over the southwestern part of the state..

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows upper-level moisture bunched up ahead of the trough again today.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere, but with no nearly-saturated layers. There was 0.92 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 195 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -248 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 892 m. There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 15 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 14 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, humid weather, with sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients. The RAP shows that this trend will continue for the next six hours, though the pressure will drop slightly statewide.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light southwesterly flow ahead of the next trough.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the early afternoon.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows a few sprinkles, but heavy rain is not expected.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the upper 80s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F today.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few light clouds.

Today, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms off and on all day. The NAM seems to think that storms will taper off in the late afternoon, both in coverage and intensity. The HRRR predicts more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms, both in time and location, tapering off in the evening.

I will mostly remain inside today, but I will run a few errands this morning.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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