The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for a stripe of the northern high plains. The primary threats today will be hail and wind.
Originally, there was a 2% Tornado Threat ring, but that has been removed.
There is a Mesoscale Discussion up to our north, where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be issued soon. Strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail are possible.
I am on the road, so this will be brief. Conditions aren’t great. The visible satellite imagery is showing some cumulus due to orthographic lift.
Surface conditions show moderate, southeasterly flow into the region, with moderate dewpoints (for Colorado and Wyoming). There is no strongly-defined dryline, as it is a bit diffuse.
The limiting factor today will be instability. Even so, surface-based Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is up over 2000 J/kg.
As I write this, we are sitting at the Walmart parking lot in Fort Morgan, CO. We may head northeast on I-76, but for the time being, we are evaluating from here.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD