Yesterday, Rio Rancho was hot and mostly sunny.
This morning, the weather has been sunny, warm and still. There is some haze, perhaps smoke from the Colorado wildfires in the air.
From the NWS in Albuquerque, NM: An upper-level high pressure system over western Utah will continue the northerly flow aloft. There is enough remnant moisture, plus a little additional from the low-level, easterly winds, to fire up a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening, particularly along the northern and southern mountains.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and low temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the west at 5 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the easterly at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly by midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning isolated thunderstorms, mainly over the northern and southern mountains. The primary threat will be gusty, erratic winds.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few light clouds along and just south of the I-40 corridor.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a weak, inverted-v shape, with a humid layer near 500 mb. There was 0.79 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1902 m. There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.2 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 10 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 13 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures with moderate humidity. The skies are sunny (according to the sensors) and winds are light and variable.
The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows that we are slightly high pressure this morning, but with no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop in the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart show light, northeasterly flow over the state today, as the upper-level high shifts west.
The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show some Cold Air Advection (CAA) approaching from the east. It is more prominent on the 700 mb chart.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible. Storms that form will have a southwesterly path, which is a little unusual, but based on the northeasterly upper-level flow.
Precipitation will be light, but it is expected to be heavier along the western edge of the state, for a change.
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F.
The low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s F right around sunrise tomorrow morning.
The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints are expected to remain in the upper 40s F all day.
The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clouds associated with the afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Today will be sunny and hot, with a chance of some afternoon thunderstorms. I will be in Socorro by late this morning, and will likely be under clear skies the whole way.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD
High Plains Chasing 