Central New Mexico Weather: 10/10/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, cool and still.  I walked around Socorro in the evening, and was comfortable in a sweatshirt.

This morning, the weather is mostly clear, cool, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature near 69 F.  Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 43 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature near 72 F.  Winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature near 65 F.  Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be clear, with a low temperature of 41 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Freeze Warnings for this morning.  They have also issued Special Weather Statement about the increased moisture due to Tropical Storm Sergio.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is not available at this time.  Also, the infrared imagery shows very few clouds.  Satellite imagery has been excluded from today’s post.

 

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a humid atmosphere below 600 mb.   There was 0.45 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 543 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.8 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 33 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 72 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and moderately high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear, and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows zonal flow, due to being at the bottom of the trough.  The trough is also attenuating as it pushes east.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the low 70s F.

The HRRR shows that the atmosphere will be relatively dry.  Dewpoints, in spite of the approaching tropical storm, will remain in the 20s F and 30s F today.

The HRRR shows strong winds are not likely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post

The HRRR shows that skies will be mostly clear all day.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

I started today by putting on a long-sleeved shirt, but I think I’ll trade it in for a short sleeve shirt in a few minutes.  It isn’t nearly as cold as that.  Today should be a sunny, pleasant day.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 10/9/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, cool and still.  I wore a sweatshirt for the first time this fall.

This morning, the weather is mostly cloudy, cool, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a  30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 63 F.  Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 40 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 58 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 37 F.  The winds will be from the west 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several freeze watches for this evening.  Some accumulating snow is possible above 8500′, in the northern and western parts of the state.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery overcast skies the eastern part of the state, with scattered cloud cover in the central and western parts.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere below 500 mb.   There was 0.50 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was 183 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -23 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 529 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 1 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 42 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to a mix of speed and directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies have some clouds and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows low pressure and no strong pressure gradient over the state today.  The RAP shows that the low will persist, and the gradient is not expected to intensify.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows zonal flow, due to being at the bottom of the trough.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows a few storms firing in the afternoon.  Coverage will be sparse and isolated.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the upper 50s F.

The HRRR shows that the atmosphere will remain moderately humid, hanging out around 30s F to 40 F.

The HRRR shows strong winds are not likely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post

The HRRR shows that skies will be partly cloudy all over the state, but the cloud coverage will taper off towards the evening.

I will probably go for a run here in a few minutes.  It is still damp everywhere, but it is also cool and sunny.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 10/8/18

Yesterday was mostly cloudy, mild, rainy and windy.  In Rio Rancho, we had about 0.24″ of rain, according to my weather station.  It dropped into the low 40s F last night.  There was even BB-sized hail, as I walked across the Walmart parking lot.

I took a photo of one of the storms to my south.

The storms were training, which increases the flooding threat.  Notice how the storms move in the same direction the line is oriented.  This means that the same area gets hit with rain over and over again.

This morning, the weather is mostly sunny, cool, and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a  30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 62 F.  Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 42 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 36 F.  The winds will be from the west 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Flood Watch in the southeastern corner of the state.  Accumulating snow is possible in the western and northern parts of the state at elevations over 9000′.

The visible satellite imagery shows clouds over most of the state this morning.  There is a big clearing in the center of the state, where I live.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere below 500 mb.   There was 0.43 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was 108 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -12 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 114 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 17 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 87 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies have some clouds and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows low pressure and a slight pressure gradient over the state today.  The RAP shows that the low will persist, and the gradient is not expected to intensify.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong southerly flow as a new trough pushes into the state this afternoon and evening.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows a few storms firing in the afternoon.  Coverage will be sparse and isolated.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the mid 60s F.

The HRRR shows that the atmosphere will dry out a little this afternoon, with dewpoint dropping into the 30s F.

The HRRR shows strong winds are not likely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post

The HRRR shows that skies will be partly cloudy all over the state, all day.

I will probably go for a run here in a few minutes.  It is still damp everywhere, but it is also cool and sunny.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central New Mexico Weather: 10/7/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, warm and breezy.

This morning, the weather is mostly cloudy, mild and breezy.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a  30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature near 73 F.  Winds will be from the south at 10-20 mph.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 46 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 76 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph, and gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the south at 20-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, and then decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 43 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Flood Watch in the southeastern corner of the state, and a Hazardous Weather Outlook for their entire warning area.  The Hazardous Weather Outlook concerns the potential for storms this afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for the eastern border of New Mexico.

Associated with the Slight Risk is a 5% Tornado Threat Ring.

The visible satellite imagery shows clouds over most of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a moderately dry atmosphere this morning.   There was 0.43 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2243 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.9 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 9 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 56 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies have some clouds and the winds are steady and from the south.

The surface pressure chart shows low pressure and a slight pressure gradient over the state today.  The RAP shows that the low will deepen and the gradient is expected to tighten over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows increasingly strong southerly flow as a new trough pushes into the state this afternoon and evening.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows lots of storms firing and going linear quickly.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the mid 70’s F.

The HRRR shows that there will be a sharp dryline in eastern NM by this afternoon.

The HRRR shows moderate winds are a possibility all day today.  Strong gusts are possible everywhere in the state as well.

The HRRR shows that skies will be partly cloudy all over the state by this evening.

In terms of storms, the CAPE is unimpressive.

The supercell parameter looks good, but I’m having a hard time believing discrete cells are possible today.  Perhaps embedded cells in a linear mess.

Today will be a rainy, stormy mess by this evening.  I debated going chasing today, but my long “to do list” said otherwise.  I think with the limited CAPE and no capping, I actually expect lines of mess rather than discrete supercells.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Possible Chase Opportunity, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Satellite Image of the Week #40

This week’s Satellite Image of the Week shows a few storms firing across Texas and New Mexico at sunset.  A few things are going on in this image.  First, there is an outflow boundary that stretches from Roswell, NM, to somewhere in central TX.  Convective fluffs are turning into cumulonimbus clouds as this boundary jogs south.  Also, notice how the low sun angle is casting long shadows from the tallest cumulonimbus clouds in eastern TX.

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:  College of DuPage – Meteorology

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Central New Mexico Weather: 10/6/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, warm and still.

This morning, the weather is sunny, mild and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a  high temperature near 74 F.  Winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a  high temperature of 78 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming south at 15-20 mph in the afternoon.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 51 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows clouds over the eastern third of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows the atmosphere is continuing to dry out.  There was 0.30 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1402 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.5 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 33 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderately low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that a low pressure system is expected to develop in the center of the state over the next six hours.  A moderate pressure gradient will increase the speed of the afternoon winds.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows increasingly strong southwesterly flow as a new trough pushes eastward through Arizona.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows that the back door cold front has slowed and will dissipate today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows very little chance of precipitation today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid 70’s F.

The HRRR shows that today will be a dry day, though the dryline will surge west near the Albuquerque Metro area.

The HRRR shows moderate winds are a possibility all day today.

The HRRR shows that skies will be partly cloudy all over the state by this evening.

Today will be a pleasant temperature and humidity, though the winds may make it uncomfortable.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 10/5/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, warm and still.

This morning, the weather is sunny, mild and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a  high temperature near 79 F.  Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 47 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a  high temperature of 85 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, becoming west at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.  The shortwave infrared imagery shows very few clouds over the state.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a much drier atmosphere this morning than the last few mornings.  There was 0.41 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1277 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.6 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 20 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 55 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and moderately low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that none are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows increasingly strong southwesterly flow as a new trough pushes eastward through Arizona.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows a moderate back door cold front pushing into the northeastern corner of the state by tomorrow morning.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows very little chance of precipitation today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid 80’s F.

The HRRR shows that today will be a dry day, with dewpoints dropping into the low 20’s F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are expected along the mountains in the northern part of the state throughout the morning.

The HRRR shows that skies will be mostly clear all day.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be a warm and dry.  Summer just keeps holding on a little longer…

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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