New Mexico Weather: 8/15/17

Yesterday, the weather was warm, humid, and mostly cloudy.  We had a shower in Magdalena in the afternoon.

Then, when I arrived in Rio Rancho, we had a small thunderstorm go through the area at sunset, and I nearly filled up the memory in my camera taking pictures of it.  Here are a few of those photos:

On Doppler RADAR, the cell looked like this:

There were a few reports of large hail and high winds in the northeastern corner of the state yesterday as well.

 

This morning has been mild, still, and partly cloudy.  Everything is damp from yesterday’s rain, but the skies are clearing up.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 64 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the west at 10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 56 F. Winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be  northwest at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning storms, particularly in the northeastern corner of the state.  Large hail, heavy downpours and damaging winds will be the primary threat.  There is also a Flash Flood Warning in place, as shown on the NWS Watches and Warnings graphic shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the very northeastern corner of the state again today.  The risk for tornadoes is low.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds, as existing clouds mix out and move east through the state.  There is a boundary in the southwestern quadrant that is moving west, and you can see if if you loop the infrared imagery.

 

The water vapor imagery shows that drier air has infiltrated the western half of the state, and continues to move east.

 

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated boundary layer, but dry air above 500 mb.  There was 0.84 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 388 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -239 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 13 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 18 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear, and the winds are light at this time.  There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.

 

The surface pressure chart shows that the entire state is under lower pressure (1006 mb to 1010 mb), with no strong pressure gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop over the next six hours, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.

 

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows southwesterly flow over the state today, as a small shortwave trough digs south through the state by 00Z.

 

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is likely over a few large patches in the state today.  Overall, coverage is less today, as compared to yesterday.

 

I am expecting a pleasant day today, as we enter a slight drying trend.  Today will be warm and sunny in most areas along the Rio Grande River Valley.  A few isolated storms are possible farther west, where there is still some deep moisture.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Radar Imagery, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Skywarn Training

Yesterday, I got Skywarn trained, again.  I went to a training class a few weeks ago, but another one was offered in conjunction with the Duke City Hamfest, so I attended it as well.

I always enjoy these.  I have now attended them in several states at several different times.  When I first started looking into storm chasing again, I attended one at the Wakefield, VA, NWS Office.  At the time, King George County, VA, was not covered by any NWS office!  Both the Wakefield and Sterling offices had us unlisted in their forecast areas.  My father and I became Skywarn Spotters in the Wakefield office, who then contacted the Sterling NWS office and had their map corrected.  Then, just to be sure, we got recertified at the Sterling NWS office.

At the Sterling office, they offered Basic and Advanced training, as well as Hurricane training.  I did all three of those in a day.

A year or so later, when I was living full-time at Virginia Tech, I also went through training from the Blacksburg, VA, NWS office.  I did this several times, as it was offered each year for the Virginia Tech Hokie Storm Chase Team.

While in Blacksburg, I acted as a net control operator for severe storms in southwest Virginia, as well as for Skywarn Recognition Day (maybe the first Skywarn Recognition Day, I can’t remember).

When I first accepted an offer for graduate school at New Mexico Tech, my father and I flew in to go apartment-hunting.  Right away, I made friends with some folks at the Socorro Amateur Radio Association, who informed me that there would be a Skywarn training that Wednesday night.  Once again, my father and I got certed.

A few years ago, JoAnna, Joey and I got certed in Rio Rancho, through the Albuquerque, NM, NWS office again.

This summer, I was certed twice through the Albuquerque NWS office.

I am sure there were others.  I guess you could say Skywarn has been a big part of my adult life.

Thank you for reading my post.

 

Posted in Commentary, Education | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Mexico Weather: 8/14/17

Yesterday, the weather was warm, humid, and mostly cloudy.  We had a few raindrops, but no significant precipitation.  There was a nice sunset, as there were plenty of clouds.

This morning has been mild, still, and mostly cloudy.  It was drizzling this morning just before sunrise, but the rain has stopped.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 90 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 66 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of  showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 83 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming north in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 58 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be  north at 5-10 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 64 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning heavy rains along and east of the central mountain chain.  Flash flooding is possible, given the damp soil and humid conditions.  Also, storms that form will have the potential to produce large hail.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no thick clouds, though there are patches of clouds through the central part of the state, south of I-40.

The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture over most of the state, though drier air is pushing in from Arizona.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere, with an inverted v pattern.  There was 1.02 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 930 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -144 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.4 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 12 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 38 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear, and the winds are light at this time.  There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows that the entire state is under lower pressure (1006 mb to 1010 mb), with no strong pressure gradients.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop over the next six hours, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today.  There is a split-flow pattern, with the lowest branch flowing weakly zonally through the center of the state.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is likely over a few large patches in the state today.  Overall, coverage is less today, as compared to yesterday.

Today, I expect that there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms, due to the high precipitable water values, CAPE and moderate lapse rates.  However, there is some dry air moving in from the west that may drop the dewpoints and rain potential later this week.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Video of the Week: 8/13/17

This week’s video is not one of mine, but I like it.  It shows up in the Albuquerque NWS Office’s Skywarn Training, so I see it every so often.

This is “just” a downburst.  This video shows the severity of a wet microburst.  There is no tornado in this video.

Thank you for reading my post.

 

Posted in Severe Weather, Weather Video | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Mexico Weather: 8/13/17

Yesterday, the weather was warm, humid, and partly cloudy.

This morning has been mild, still, and mostly cloudy.  There was a blanket of clouds over Rio Rancho this morning.

 

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 89 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly cloudy day, with a 70% chance of  showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be  west at 5-10 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming north after midnight.

The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning heavy rains along and east of the central mountain chain.  Flash flooding is possible, given the damp soil and humid conditions.  Also, storms that form will have the potential to produce large hail, gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for the northeastern corner of the state.

There is also a 2% Tornado Threat Ring associated with the Slight Risk.

The visible satellite imagery show plenty of clouds over the central part of the state.

The infrared satellite imagery shows no really thick clouds, but some of them are moderately thick.

 

The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture, some of which is swirling around Clovis.

 

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere.  There was 1.04 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 1104 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -137 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.8 C/km.

 

The hodograph shows that there was 13 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 21 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

 

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are cloudy over the northeastern corner of the state, and the winds are light at this time.  There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.

 

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop, and that a 1006 mb low pressure system will develop over central New Mexico in the next six hours.

 

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today.

 

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows some weak Cold Air Advection (CAA) pushing into the very northeastern corner of the state today.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is likely over most of the state today.

Today, I am seriously debating driving to Clayton ahead of the thunderstorms that will form today.  Showers and thunderstorms are likely across much of the state today.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Satellite Image of the Week #32

This week’s satellite image shows a few pockets of deeper convection over Kentucky and Tennessee.  These pockets could be areas of stronger heating, or they could be a result of upslope flow into the Appalachian Mountains.  It could be that these are near the southern and eastern facing slopes (that have had more exposure to diurnal heating).

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:  College of DuPage – Meteorology

Posted in Satellite Imagery | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Mexico Weather: 8/12/17

Yesterday, the weather was warm and partly cloudy through the Rio Grande River Valley.  There was plenty of rain in Rio Rancho, Albuquerque, and along a car ride to Los Alamos, with water pooling in the low-lying areas.

This morning has been mild, still, and party sunny.  The sun rose through scattered clouds again this morning.

 

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 87 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of  showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F. Winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be light and variable, becoming west at 5-10 mph in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning heavy rains along and east of the central mountain chain.  Flash flooding is possible, given the damp soil and humid conditions.  Also, storms that form will have the potential to produce large hail, gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

 

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows a few thicker clouds in the southeastern corner of the state this morning.  These clouds are mixing out and moving out of the state.

 

The water vapor imagery shows deep moisture, some of which is swirling around Clovis.

 

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere.  There was 1.25 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was 588 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -17 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.7 C/km.

 

The hodograph shows that there was 3 kts of low-level shear (mostly due to directional changes) and 15 kts of deep-layer shear (mostly due to speed changes).

 

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are cloudy over much of the state, and the winds are light at this time.  The Doppler RADAR indicates that there are still a few lingering showers in the southeast that are weakening and moving out of the state.  There are no major frontal boundaries over the state so far this morning.

 

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure (1020 mb) over the northeastern corner of the state, and a slight pressure gradient through the north.   The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, and the pressure gradient will weaken over the next six hours.

 

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows zonal flow over the state today.

 

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart is unavailable at this time.

 

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain is likely over most of the state today.

 

Today, there is significant moisture.  It is probably not a record, but 1.25 inches of precipitable water is about as high as I have recorded on this blog.  I expect there will be showers and thunderstorms today, where heavy rains and flooding are possible.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment