Yesterday was hot, but the skies clouded up a bit in the afternoon. We even got some light rain in Socorro and a few drops in Rio Rancho.
This morning has been mostly sunny, warm and still.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the south at 15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, becoming northwest at 5-10 mph after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 30% chance of scattered thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 86 F, but falling. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of the area concerning the influx of moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Bud. We will have showers and thunderstorms over the next few days.
The visible satellite image shows cumulus clouds developing over the mountains and the western half of the state today.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows an inverted v shape. There was 0.78 inches of precipitable water present in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2150 m. There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.9 C/km.
The hodograph shows that there was 16 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 11 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show high temperatures and low humidity, based on the dewpoints. The skies are mostly clear. The winds are light, statewide. There is a dryline that runs through the eastern quarter of the state.
The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours. No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows zonal flow over the state today.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows a few sub-severe storms will begin to fire all over the state by 21 Z.
The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 23 Z, reaching into the mid-90’s.
The HRRR shows that the winds will not be very strong. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR shows light clouds over most of the sky by 00 Z.
Today will be hot, but cumulus clouds are building in all directions. There is some discrepancy between the cloud model and the reflectivity model in terms of storm and cloud coverage. Noticing the cumulus clouds developing, I tend to believe the skies will be cloudier than the cloud output is showing, and I tend to believe the reflectivity model.
Storms will be possible later this week, so I will be watching this situation closely over the next few days. We will be getting some of the moisture from Hurricane Bud in the Pacific, which will be a welcome relief to this drought.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD