Yesterday was a warm and breezy day, but it was quite pleasant. When I returned home to Rio Rancho, we went for a walk until sunset.
This morning has been mostly cloudy, cool and breezy.
Yesterday’s back door cold front lowered temperatures across the region. This, combined with increased moisture will lead to showers and thunderstorms across the region today. Storms are expected to remain below severe limits, but may have gusty winds and heavy rain.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a cloudy day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 54 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 50 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.
The visible satellite imagery shows cloudy skies for most of the state this morning.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows humid conditions under 250 mb. There was 0.60 inches of precipitable water in the column. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1393 m. There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 3.9 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 20 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 48 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity this morning. The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are breezy and from the southeast.
The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows strong high pressure over Clayton and Raton, NM, which has generated a slight pressure gradient. The RAP expects the high to weaken with diurnal heating.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state today.
The NAM 850 mb chart shows that the back door cold front has finished advecting cold air into the region. No more strong thermal advection is expected. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that clusters of showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon.
The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the low 80s F today.
The HRRR shows that moisture will advect from the south into the Albuquerque Metro area by this evening, raising dewpoints into the mid 40s F.
The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are possible this morning. The winds are expected to decrease through the afternoon and evening hours.
The HRRR predicts that the skies will remain mostly cloudy all day.
Today will be cooler than yesterday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, statewide.
Thank you for reading my post.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD