Rio Rancho, NM, to San Diego, CA

Yesterday was cool, mostly sunny and still.

This morning has been cool, mostly cloudy and still.

Today, I will catch a morning flight from Albuquerque, NM, to San Diego, CA, just in time to miss the winter storm approaching New Mexico.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph.

The NWS in Pittsburgh, PA, forecasts (for San Diego, CA) a cloudy day, with a 100% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 64 F.  Winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 mph, and becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be cloudy, with a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 55 F.  Winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that there may be some strong storms this afternoon and evening, with heavy rain as the primary threat.

The Aviation Weather Center shows some turbulence along the route, due to the convection in the approaching winter storm.

I will post from San Diego tomorrow.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD
The aviation data and forecasts are from the Aviation Weather Center

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Central New Mexico Weather: 12/5/18

Yesterday was cool, sunny and still

This morning has been cold, overcast and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 49 F.  Winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 27 F.  Winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming northeast by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a  high temperature of 52 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with low temperature of 29 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Special Weather Statement concerning an approaching winter storm.  Sucks to be you, I fly to San Diego tomorrow, and will hopefully avoid it.

The visible satellite imagery shows thin clouds over most of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere with no nearly-saturated layers.  There was 0.23 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 882 m.  There was a very large, thick thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 1.3 C/km.  The hodograph shows that there was 23 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 56 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure with a moderate pressure gradient over the state today.  The RAP shows that pressure will drop with diurnal heating, and the gradient will weaken over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that precipitation is unlikely.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the low 50s F.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will drop into the single digits today.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts in the Rio Grande River Valley are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies will remain cloudy all day and into the evening.

Today is the calm before the winter storm.  Tomorrow, a back door cold front, plus a potent Pacific storm will move into the area, bringing winter weather to most of the state.  Today, however, will be cool and cloudy with light winds.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Central New Mexico Weather: 12/4/18

Yesterday was cool, sunny and still

This morning has been cold, sunny and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 44 F.  Winds will be from the north at 5 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 21 F.  Winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a  high temperature of 48 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  Tonight will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 23 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 44 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with low temperature of 23 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows some fog in the east, but otherwise cloudless skies over the Rio Grande River Valley.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry atmosphere with no nearly-saturated layers.  There was 0.15 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 874 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 1.7 C/km.  The hodograph shows that there was 18 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 81 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure with a weak pressure gradient over the state today.  The RAP shows that this trend will continue for at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that precipitation is unlikely.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the upper 40s F.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will drop into the single digits today.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that a few clouds will begin to drift in from the west this afternoon.

Today is a boring day for New Mexico, weather-wise.  It will be cold, clear, sunny and still all day.  Today is the day of the (outdoor) chemical engineering car competition, so, it has to be cold.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 12/3/18

Yesterday was cold, windy, and the clouds decreased throughout the day.

This morning has been cold, mostly sunny and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 42 F.  Winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 19 F.  Winds will be from the north at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a  high temperature of 47 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  Tonight will be clear, with a low temperature of 21 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 43 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be clear, with low temperature of 17 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest by midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows some lingering clouds in the northern third of the state, but otherwise sunny skies.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows nearly-saturated conditions below 700 mb.  There was 0.16 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 574 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that there was 12 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 86 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and moderate humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows high pressure with no strong pressure gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that this trend will continue for at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that precipitation is unlikely.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the low 40s F.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 10s F today.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies are expected to remain clear this afternoon and evening.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today is a boring day for New Mexico, weather-wise.  It will be cold, clear, sunny and still all day.  The cold part is a nuisance, as the heater core burst on my truck this morning…

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Video of the Week #48

I lost count of these a long time ago, but this is the 48th week of the year, so there it is.

This is not my footage, but there were some amazing videos from the tornadoes in Illinois yesterday.

Thank you for reading my post.

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Central New Mexico Weather: 12/2/18

Yesterday was cool, windy, and partly cloudy, but became partly sunny by the afternoon.  It clouded up in the late evening and snowed overnight:

This morning has been cold, cloudy and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of rain and snow showers, with a high temperature of 45 F.  Winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 21 F.  Winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a  high temperature of 51 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.  Tonight will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 24 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 43 F, with a rapid drop in temperature expected by this evening.  The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with low temperature of 20 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning a potent winter storm.  The northern half of the state will be impacted by wintry mix and snow, particularly at elevations above 8000′.   They have issued several Winter Weather Advisories and a Winter Storm Warning for areas near Chama.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows heavy cloud cover over most of the state today.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows nearly-saturated conditions below 450 mb.  There was 0.36 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 87 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.0 C/km.  The hodograph shows that there was 24 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 128 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and high humidity (based on the surface dewpoint depressions).  The skies are mostly clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state today.  The RAP shows that none are expected for at least the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong, zonal to northwesterly flow, as a new trough digs southward.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows scattered precipitation off and on all day.

The HRRR confirms what the NAM said:  precipitation that falls will fall as snow north of the I-25 corridor and above 8000 ft.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the mid 40s F.

The HRRR shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 20s F today.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are possible, particularly for higher elevations near the continental divide.

The HRRR shows that the skies are expected to lighten a bit in the afternoon, with spottier cloud coverage.

The NAM shows the Critical Thicknesses are almost all near the I-40 corridor.  Precipitation will likely fall as snow above this line, though the surface temperatures in the Albuquerque Metro area are high enough that it will not stick at this time.

Today will continue to be cold and cloudy, with some snow falling.  I am not expecting heavy accumulation due to the boundary layer temperature.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Satellite Image of the Week #48

This week’s Satellite Image of the Week shows cold air draining off the continent, particularly on the east coast.

At first glance, this might look like a land-breeze, with air streaming off the continent into the Atlantic Ocean, forming clouds a little ways out to sea.  Actually, the land itself isn’t that cold, but there is a strong cold airmass over the Eastern Seaboard, and its cold, dense air is pushing off the continent into the ocean.  As it passes over the ocean, it warms and its humidity increases, leading to the clouds a few tens of miles into the ocean.

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:  College of DuPage – Meteorology

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