New Mexico Weather: 12/8/17

Yesterday was mostly sunny, still and cold.

This morning has been cold, partly cloudy and still.  There was a thin layer of haze and smoke in the Rio Grande River Valley

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 51 F. The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 23 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 47 F. The winds will be from the north at 10 mph. This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 20 F.  Winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.   This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 25 F. Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning strong winds in the northeastern corner of the state.  They have also issued several Wind Advisories, as shown in the Watches and Warnings graphic:

The visible satellite imagery and infrared satellite imagery show very few clouds.  These images have been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows nearly uniform moisture over the state this morning.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a relatively damp atmosphere.  There was 0.23 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was a moderate thermal inversion around 600 mb, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 2.8 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 12 kt of low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 74 kts of deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity, (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies were clear  and sunny over most of the state, with stronger winds in the eastern part of the state.

The surface pressure chart shows that high pressure and a moderate pressure gradient dominate today’s weather.  The RAP shows that high pressure will linger for at least the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong northerly flow over the state today.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows no strong vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong movement of the cold front.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that measurable precipitation is possible in the very southern part of the state by 00Z.

It’s another cold day in New Mexico, but it is a little warmer than yesterday.  The eastern part of the state will be windy as the trough moves very slowly to the east.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Mexico Weather: 12/7/17

Yesterday was mostly sunny, still and cold.

This morning has been cold, partly cloudy and still.  There were clouds at sunrise, and I have heard reports that there was snow falling one train station north of where I boarded.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 40 F. The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a  low temperature of 18 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a partly sunny day, with 20% chance of snow, and a high temperature of 33 F. The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 15 F.  Winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a  high temperature of 38 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon.   This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 21 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning an upper-level disturbance that will bring a few inches of snow to the mountains in the northern part of the state.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows that the clouds are relatively thin, as compared to yesterday.  Winter precipitation does not require thick convective clouds.

The water vapor imagery shows nearly uniform moisture over the state this morning.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry, cold atmosphere, with a nearly-saturated layer from 650 mb to 550 mb.  There was 0.18 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.5 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 17 kt of low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 61 kts of deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity, (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The skies were cloudy over most of the state, and the winds light.

The surface pressure chart shows that high pressure and a moderate pressure gradient dominate today’s weather.  The RAP shows that high pressure will linger for at least the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong northeasterly flow as the deforms southwest into New Mexico.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows that there will be some Negative Vorticity Advection (NVA) associated with the trough’s movement this evening.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong movement of the cold front.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that measurable precipitation is possible in the very southern part of the state by 00Z.

It’s another cold day in New Mexico.  I actually brought my gloves today, as I expected the steering wheel and shift knob to be quite cold this morning.  High pressure will rule the day, though a moderate pressure gradient may create slightly breezier conditions today, as compared to yesterday.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Mexico Weather: 12/6/17

Yesterday was mostly cloudy, still and cold.  It drizzled off and on all evening.

This morning has been cold, mostly sunny and still.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 50 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a  low temperature of 24 F. Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 43 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming east in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 12 F.  Winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a sunny day, with a  high temperature of 46 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.   This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 21 F. Winds will be from the east at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning an upper-level disturbance that will bring snow to elevations over 7500 ft.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows that the cold front has pushed into southern New Mexico.  Cooler, higher topped clouds exist over the lower 1/3 of the state.

The water vapor imagery show that the southern 1/3 of the state has plenty of moisture, but behind the cold front, the air is quite dry.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a dry, cold atmosphere.  There was 0.06 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 3.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 16 kt of low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 17 kts of deep-layer shear (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity, (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The Doppler RADAR shows some precipitation is falling south of Socorro County.  The cold front is located just north of these clouds, as shown by the cloud cover, wind shift and temperature drop.

The surface pressure chart shows that high pressure and a moderate pressure gradient dominate today’s weather.  The RAP shows that this trend will continue for at least the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong zonal flow across the state.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of strong vorticity moving west to east across the state.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong movement of the cold front.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that measurable precipitation is unlikely through 00 Z.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

It’s another cold day in New Mexico, but the skies will be clearing and precipitation will become less likely in the lower elevations through this evening.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Mexico Weather: 12/5/17

Yesterday was mostly cloudy, still and cool.

This morning has been cool, cloudy and still.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a cloudy day, with a 50% chance of snow (< 1″), and a high temperature of 42 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of snow (< 1″), and a low temperature of 25 F. Winds will be from the north at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a cloudy day, with 60% chance of snow (1″), and a high temperature of 35 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of snow (< 1″) and a low temperature of 20 F.  Winds will be from the north at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a 10% chance of snow (<1″), and a high temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon.   This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 22 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming calm in the late evening.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the winter weather that is occurring all over the state today.  This cold front is bringing snow and sleet to most of the Albuquerque Warning area.

The visible satellite imagery shows heavy cloud cover over the southern 2/3 of the state this morning.

The infrared satellite imagery shows that all of the clouds have cool tops this morning.

The water vapor imagery show ample moisture (for winter weather, anyway) over the southern 2/3 of the state.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly saturated layer at 700 mb.  There was 0.15 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 4.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 6 kt of low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 92 kts of deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cold temperatures and low humidity, (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The Doppler RADAR shows some precipitation is falling south and west of Socorro, and it is likely snow.

The surface pressure chart shows that is low pressure over  northern Mexico and high pressure over the Rockies, leaving us in a moderate pressure gradient, though the winds are not following suit.  The RAP shows that both pressure systems, and thus the gradient, are expected to weaken slightly over the next six hours.

While all of the Critical Thickness Contours are north of us in the Rio Grande River Valley, we still may see snow.  The Critical Thickness Contours are really only a guideline, as the cold temperatures and ample moisture will allow for snowfall in spite of their location today.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong zonal flow across the state.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows a few pockets of strong vorticity moving west to east across the state.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows no pockets of rapidly-rising air over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no further movement of the cold front.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that precipitation (snow) is likely to accumulate over the west central part of the state.

I can’t say much more about this.  Snow during my planned outdoor event in New Mexico.  I need to run and make some backup plans!

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Mexico Weather: 12/4/17

Yesterday was mostly sunny, still and mild.  I was able to go for a run in the evening, but once the sun set, the temperature became chilly.

This morning has been cool, partly cloudy and still.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming north in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 30 F. Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 56 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming north in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 23 F. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 51 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, becoming north in the afternoon.   This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 25 F. Winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and several Wind Advisories across the state today ahead of the approaching cold front.  The Watches and Warnings  Graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time.

The infrared satellite imagery shows that a few cool, high-topped clouds have drifted into the state from the west.

The water vapor imagery shows nearly uniform moisture over the state this morning.

The 12Z sounding from Albuquerque shows a nearly saturated atmosphere below 650 mb, but much drier aloft.  There was 0.33 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -109 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) present.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 7.0 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 23 kt of low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 91 kts of deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and moderate humidity, (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The sensors were not detecting many clouds, and the winds were light, statewide.  There was no evidence of any strong frontal boundaries over the state this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows that is low pressure over Texas, and high pressure associated with the approaching cold front, leaving a moderate pressure gradient across the state.  The RAP shows that this will persist for at least the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows strong zonal flow across the state.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows very little vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows several pockets of rapidly-rising air ahead of the cold front in the northeastern corner of the state.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows some strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) in the northeastern corner of the state by 00 Z.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain and snow are unlikely over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will begin to trend colder to more seasonable temperatures.  Interestingly enough, the NWS has the cold front approaching from the northwest ahead of the trough (which I can see), and the NAM shows the cold front also pushing in from the northeast as cold air fills into to Great Plains.  Either way, it’s gonna get much colder tonight than it has been all season.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Mexico Weather: 12/3/17

Yesterday was mostly cloudy, mild and still.  The evening cooled off, but remained cloudy.

This morning has been cool, mostly sunny and still.

National Weather Service (NWS) in Albuquerque forecasts (for Socorro) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 68 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 38 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Magdalena) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 36 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque forecasts (for Rio Rancho) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.   This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 37 F. Winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and a Special Weather Statement about the next few days.  A strong cold front will bring gusty winds to the northern part of the state this evening, and will bring cold temperatures to the state by Monday night.  Snow is possible at the higher elevations with this system.  There are also a few Wind Advisories in place, as shown on the Watches and Warnings graphic:

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The infrared satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning as well.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The water vapor imagery shows that there is moisture inbound from the west, but that the atmosphere is relatively dry at this time.

The 12Z soundings are unavailable at this time.  The link is broken.

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show cool temperatures and moderate humidity, (based on the surface dewpoint depressions). The sensors were not detecting many clouds, and the winds were light and variable, statewide.  There was no evidence of any strong frontal boundaries over the state this morning.

The surface pressure chart shows that there was slightly high pressure over the northern part of the state.  The RAP shows that the pressure will decrease everywhere with diurnal heating, and that no strong pressure systems or gradients will persist over the next six hours.

Synoptically speaking, the 300 mb NAM chart (from Unisys) shows increasing southwesterly flow as a trough approaches the state from the northwest.

The 500 mb NAM chart shows very little vorticity advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The 700 mb NAM chart shows a pattern of high winds through the mountains ahead of the approaching trough.  The strong winds will affect the Four Corners area and counties along the northern and northwestern parts of the state.

The 850 mb NAM chart shows no strong thermal advection over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Precipitation chart shows that rain and snow are unlikely over the state today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be our last day of pleasant weather for quite some time.  This cold front will chill things for several days.  Even in the Rio Grande River Valley, the lows will be in the lower 20’s.  Enjoy today while you can.

Thank you for reading my post.

The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The forecasted upper air soundings are from TwisterData.com.
The surface observation and upper level charts are from Unisys Weather.
The satellite data is from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Posted in Local WX, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

No Report Today

I was in a strange depression this morning, so I didn’t get up and predict the weather.  Perhaps I will post a satellite image later.

 

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