Central New Mexico Weather: 6/14/18

Yesterday was hot, but the skies clouded up a bit in the afternoon.  We even got some light rain in Socorro and a few drops in Rio Rancho.

This morning has been mostly sunny, warm and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 95 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15 mph.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, becoming northwest at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 30% chance of scattered thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 86 F, but falling.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of the area concerning the influx of moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Bud.  We will  have showers and thunderstorms over the next few days.

The visible satellite image shows cumulus clouds developing over the mountains and the western half of the state today.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows an inverted v shape.  There was 0.78 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2150 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.9 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 16 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 11 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show high temperatures and low humidity, based on the dewpoints.  The skies are mostly clear.  The winds are light, statewide.  There is a dryline that runs through the eastern quarter of the state.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows zonal flow over the state today.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows a few sub-severe storms will begin to fire all over the state by 21 Z.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 23 Z, reaching into the mid-90’s.

The HRRR shows that the winds will not be very strong. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows light clouds over most of the sky by 00 Z.

Today will be hot, but cumulus clouds are building in all directions.  There is some discrepancy between the cloud model and the reflectivity model in terms of storm and cloud coverage.  Noticing the cumulus clouds developing, I tend to believe the skies will be cloudier than the cloud output is showing, and I tend to believe the reflectivity model.

Storms will be possible later this week, so I will be watching this situation closely over the next few days.  We will be getting some of the moisture from Hurricane Bud in the Pacific, which will be a welcome relief to this drought.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 6/13/18

Yesterday was hot and sunny all day.  The temperature cooled off a bit in the evening, and a few clouds developed, though it was mostly clear.

This morning has been mostly sunny, warm and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 98 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 100 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph, decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 91 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the south at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then decreasing to 10-15 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has also issued an Air Quality Alert for the northwestern corner of the state, and a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the rest of their warning area.  The Air Quality Alert is for smoke, and the Hazardous Weather Outlook concerns isolated thunderstorms that will begin this afternoon.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the very northeastern corner of the state today.  Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats from these storms.

The visible satellite image shows that a few clouds formed over the state last night.  Most of the state is under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a sounding with low humidity throughout.  There was 0.36 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 3653 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 9 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 24 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show high temperatures and low humidity, based on the dewpoints.  The skies are mostly clear, though a few stations are reporting cloud cove.  The winds are light, statewide.  There is a dryline that splits the state in half along the central mountain range.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows zonal flow over the state today.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows a few sub-severe storms will begin to fire off the central mountain range by 21 Z.   Storm coverage will be greatest over the eastern half of the state, but storms will be scattered throughout the state.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 21 Z, reaching into the upper-90’s and low 100’s F.

The HRRR shows that the winds will not be very strong. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows the skies clouding up through the afternoon due to the showers and thunderstorms.

Today will be hot, but there will be some relief this afternoon with stronger winds and isolated thunderstorms.

Storms will be possible later this week, so I will be watching this situation closely over the next few days.  We will be getting some of the moisture from Hurricane Bud in the Pacific, which will be a welcome relief to this drought.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 6/12/18

Yesterday was hot and sunny all day.

This morning has been sunny, hot and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 99 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 67 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 101 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph.   This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 66 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph.   This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the very northeastern corner of the state today.  Isolated severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats from these storms.

The visible satellite image shows very few clouds in the sky, statewide.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a sounding with low humidity throughout.  There was 0.32 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2803 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.2 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 10 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 8 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show high temperatures and low humidity, based on the dewpoints.  The skies are clear, and the winds are light.  There is a dryline that cuts through the eastern third of the state.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows southwesterly flow over the state today.

 

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is unlikely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the upper-90’s and low 100’s F.

The HRRR shows that the winds will not be very strong. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that a few clouds will form by the late afternoon, though coverage will be light.

Today will be hot, with virtually no breeze and few clouds today.  Thankfully, the lower wind speeds have reduced the fire threat a little for today.

Storms will be possible later this week, so I will be watching this situation closely over the next few days.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 6/11/18

Yesterday was hot and a bit breezy.

This morning has been sunny, warm and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 96 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 62 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 98 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming southeast by the afternoon.   This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 90 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming east in the afternoon.   This evening will be clear, with a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the southeast at 10 mph, becoming west after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Heat Advisory for several counties in the southern part of the state.  They have also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning thunderstorms later this week.  The NWS Watches and Warnings Graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite image shows no clouds in the sky, statewide.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a sounding with low humidity throughout.  There was 0.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 3651 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 5.3 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 23 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 24 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show high temperatures and low humidity, based on the dewpoints.  The skies are clear, and the winds are light.  There is a dryline that cuts through the eastern third of the state, as well as an outflow boundary from yesterday’s storms showing up on RADAR.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that thermal low pressure is expected to develop over the eastern half of the state within the next six hours.  No strong pressure gradients are expected with this thermal low.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows a light, upper-level high pressure system directly above the thermal low at the surface.  Notice how the upper-level winds are circling around the high pressure in a clockwise flow pattern.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows precipitation is highly unlike today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 23 Z, reaching into the upper-90’s, nearing 100 F.

The HRRR shows that the winds will not be very strong. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that clouds are unlikely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be hot, with virtually no breeze and no clouds at all today.  Thankfully, the lower wind speeds have reduced the fire threat a little for today.

Storms will be possible later this week, so I will be watching this situation closely over the next few days.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 6/10/18

Yesterday was hot, but I did run into a few rain showers south of Capitan, NM.

This morning has been sunny, hot and breezy.  It feels like fire weather out there.  I’m off to a late start with my forecast.  I was going to go for a bike ride this morning, but it was already in the 70’s at 6 am, so I decided not to bother.  Too hot.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 97 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.   This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, becoming northwest after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.   This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the west at 15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued Red Flag Warnings for the northwestern corner of the state, as well as Hazardous Weather Outlooks for the rest of their warning area.  These concern the windy, fire weather conditions.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Critical Fire Weather risk area for the northwestern part of the state today.

The visible satellite image shows dry, clear conditions over the western half of the state, with a few cumulus clouds forming over the eastern half.  At the dryline (right along the TX border), a few storms have formed.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a sounding with nearly saturated conditions aloft, but very little surface moisture.   There was 0.74 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2978 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 8.7 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 11 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 18 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows high temperatures, low humidity (as shown by the dewpoint depressions), and moderate surface winds under clear skies for most of the state.

The surface pressure chart shows that we are under a large thermal low that will continue to deepen over the next six hours, according to the RAP.  Winds are strong due to upper-level events, not because a strong surface pressure difference.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows a change in the upper-level winds as a slight heat ridge forms over western New Mexico and eastern Arizona.  The winds shift from nearly zonal, becoming from the northwest.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that a few storms may develop along the dryline in the late afternoon at the eastern edge of the state.  Otherwise, precipitation is not expected.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid-90’s.

The HRRR shows that the winds will remain moderate throughout the day, with mid-teens gusts expected.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that the skies will mostly clear throughout the day.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map shows that the Fosberg Index will be highest in the northwestern corner of New Mexico today.  This is where we have the greatest risk of wildfires.

Today will be hot, yet again.  Unlike yesterday, brief showers and clouds will not provide any relief.  The northwestern corner of the state is particularly vulnerable to wildfires today, given the breezy, dry conditions.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Satellite Image of the Week #23

This week’s Satellite Image of the Week shows a supercell that fired near the NE/KS/MO border along a boundary.  I like this image because you can see the clouds along the boundary tapering south.  You can also see the overshooting top (the large bubbling in the middle of the anvil).  You can tell that this storm means business, blowing up all by itself.

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:  College of DuPage – Meteorology

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Central New Mexico Weather: 6/9/18

Yesterday was hot.  There were a few isolated thunderstorms, though none crossed my path.

This morning has been sunny, warm and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 94 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of dry, isolated thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 85 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeast in the afternoon.   This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of dry, isolated thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for most of the state today, as well as an Air Quality Alert.  The Air Quality Alert is for smoke, and the Hazardous Weather Outlook is for dry lightning strikes and gusty downdrafts from isolated thunderstorms.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite image shows that there are clouds drifting into the state from the south.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque shows a sounding with variable moisture.  There was 0.61 inches of precipitable water present in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH).  The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2043 m.  There was a moderate thermal inversion near the surface, and the 0-3 km average lapse rate was 6.6 C/km.

The hodograph shows that there was 15 kts low-level shear (due mostly to directional changes) and 18 kts deep-layer shear (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) show mild temperatures, moderate humidity (based on the dewpoints), and mostly sunny skies.  Winds are light and variable, with no strong boundaries present.

The surface pressure chart shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will drop throughout the day, due to diurnal heating, but no strong pressure systems or gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart southwesterly flow over the state today.  We will be under a slight ridge.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that isolated storms are possible over most of the state today.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the Rio Grande River Valley will peak around 22 Z, reaching into the mid-90’s.

The HRRR shows that the winds will not be very strong. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows that most of the state will see broken skies today.  Many of the clouds will be “anvil material” from isolated, dry thunderstorms.

Today will be hot, yet again.  There will be isolated thunderstorms today, though they will likely be dry and below severe limits.  Given the dry lower half of the sounding, virga bombs and gusty downdraft winds will be the primary storm elements today.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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