Central New Mexico Weather: 6/10/19

Yesterday was a warm and breezy day, but it was quite pleasant.  When I returned home to Rio Rancho, we went for a walk until sunset.

This morning has been mostly cloudy, cool and breezy.

Yesterday’s back door cold front lowered temperatures across the region.  This, combined with increased moisture will lead to showers and thunderstorms across the region today.  Storms are expected to remain below severe limits, but may have gusty winds and heavy rain.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 76 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 55 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a cloudy day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 75 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 54 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 69 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming south in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows cloudy skies for most of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows humid conditions under 250 mb.  There was 0.60 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1393 m.  There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 3.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 20 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 48 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity this morning.  The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors) and the winds are breezy and from the southeast.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows strong high pressure over Clayton and Raton, NM, which has generated a slight pressure gradient.  The RAP expects the high to weaken with diurnal heating.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows that the back door cold front has finished advecting cold air into the region.  No more strong thermal advection is expected.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that clusters of showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the low 80s F today.

The HRRR shows that moisture will advect from the south into the Albuquerque Metro area by this evening, raising dewpoints into the mid 40s F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are possible this morning.  The winds are expected to decrease through the afternoon and evening hours.

The HRRR predicts that the skies will remain mostly cloudy all day.

Today will be cooler than yesterday.  Showers and thunderstorms are possible, statewide.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Satellite Image of the Week 2019 #23

This week’s image was taken on 6/7/19 over the western Oklahoma. There was a nice cumulus field developing east of the dryline.

Even though my chase season is probably done for the year, I do like watching the cumulus fields developing over the Great Plains. On a chase day, it shows that some of the ingredients are available for severe storms (some instability, moisture).

On a non-chase day, it shows that there is a possibility for rain. In the past few years, this is exactly what this part of the country has needed. Unfortunately, this year, that is not the case. The last thing Oklahoma needs is more rain.

Thank you for reading this post!

Source:  College of DuPage – Meteorology

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Central New Mexico Weather: 6/9/19

I will be driving back to Rio Rancho from Ruidoso today, so I will go ahead and forecast for Ruidoso, Socorro and Rio Rancho.

This morning has been a sunny, mild and still.  I went for a run around Ruidoso.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 88 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast by the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 93 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southeast in the afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Ruidoso, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F.  The winds will be from the north at 10 mph, becoming east by the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 45 F.  The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued several Wind Advisories concerning strong winds this afternoon.  While the eastern plains can expect high winds, there are a few areas along the I-25 corridor that may see high winds as well.  The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the central part of the state.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a much drier atmosphere than we’ve seen for several days.  There was 0.21 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2799 m.  There was a large thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.9 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 15 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 40 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows warm temperatures and low surface humidity this morning.  The skies are clear, minus a few stations in the north-central part of the state, (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows strong high pressure east of Colorado Springs, CO, which has generated a strong pressure gradient, particularly in the northeastern part of New Mexico.  The RAP expects the high to weaken, but the pressure gradient will remain strong.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) moving in from the north, covering the eastern plains of New Mexico.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that precipitation is unlikely today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the low 90s F today.

The HRRR shows that the moisture has retreated east.  There will be a minor surge west, causing the dewpoint to rise into the mid 30s F, but only temporarily.  The dryline is much farther east.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are possible, particularly over the eastern plains.  There will be strong winds in the early morning hours along the mountain ranges as well.

The HRRR predicts that a few clouds are possible this evening.

Today will be warm, breezy and dry.  It will feel more like New Mexico today than it has for several days.  I’ll be happily cruising in my air-conditioned car.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Alto, NM, Weather: 6/7/19

I will remain in the Alto/Ruidoso, NM area for the next few days.  Therefore, I will limit my forecast discussion to this area.

Yesterday was a beautiful day, though I did drive through some heavy rain for just a minute on my way down to Ruidoso.  It was sunny all around, minus one patch of rain.  The evening was pretty as well, with clouds lit up at sunset.

This morning has been sunny, warm and still.  As soon as the sun rose this morning, the temperature heated up quickly.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Alto, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F.  The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 49 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid layer between 600 mb and 450 mb.  There was 0.60 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1409 m.  There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.3 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 3 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 14 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

 

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows warm temperatures and moderate surface humidity this morning.  The skies are clear (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

 

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will decrease with diurnal heating later today.

 

The NAM 250 mb chart shows southwesterly flow aloft as the jet bends around an upper-level low over Arizona.

 

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection is expected today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows no precipitation is expected in my area.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

**I have very limited internet access, and I cannot get the College of DuPage site to load properly, nor can I upload my photos of last night’s sunset.  I’ve spent about an hour trying to upload photos and charts, and I just don’t think it is going to happen.

Today should be a perfect day here at the Bonita Park campground.  I’m currently sitting in the gazebo, in the shade with a light breeze.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 6/6/19

Just as I expected, I commuted home in the rain and even some small hail yesterday.

This morning has been a partly cloudy, mild and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 86 F.  The winds will be calm, becoming northwest at 5 mph.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 59 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 90 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 60 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph, becoming northwest by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 82 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5 mph, becoming north in the afternoon.  This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state today.  This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and moderate surface humidity this morning.  The skies are clear (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will decrease with diurnal heating later today.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection is expected today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that only a few minor spots of precipitation are expected today.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the lower 90s F today.

The HRRR shows that lower dewpoints are expected all day, with dewpoints dropping into the low 30s F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are unlikely.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR predicts very few clouds for this afternoon.

Today will be warmer, drier, and sunnier than yesterday.  It should be a good day for cruising down to Ruidoso.  I will be in the Ruidoso area for several days.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 6/5/19

Just as I expected, I commuted home in the rain and even some small hail yesterday.

This morning has been a partly cloudy, mild and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 75 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 54 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 78 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southwest.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 55 F.  The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 70 F.  The winds will be from the north at 5 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 51 F.  The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of storms, particularly in the southeastern corner of the state.  These storms may have gusty winds and large hail.

The visible satellite imagery shows partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies over the northwestern quarter of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid atmosphere below 300 mb.  There was 0.65 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 14 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -462 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 891 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 11 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 15 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows mild temperatures and high surface humidity this morning.  The skies are clear, minus a few stations in the north-central part of the state, (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will decrease with diurnal heating later today.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows southwesterly flow aloft as the jet bends around an upper-level low over Arizona.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection is expected today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that storms will and cluster quickly.  Storm coverage will be widespread throughout the state.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 70s F today.  The widespread storm coverage is big enough to show up in the temperature chart as pockets of cooler air.

The HRRR shows that the moisture will retreat east again today, dropping the dewpoint into the 30s F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are possible, particularly over the central mountain range.

The HRRR predicts that clouds are likely this afternoon.

Today will be cooler, cloudier and rainier than yesterday.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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Central New Mexico Weather: 6/4/19

Yesterday was hot and remained humid for most of the day.  I did quite a bit of walking around campus with a friend yesterday, and it was a little warm for my taste.

This morning has been a partly cloudy, mild and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 84 F.  The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming south this afternoon.  This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 57 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming east after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 87 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 56 F.  The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming east by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) increasing clouds, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 78 F.  The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.  This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 50 F.  The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning the possibility of storms, particularly in the southeastern corner of the state.  These storms may have gusty winds and large hail.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for the eastern half of the state, extending almost to the Albuquerque Metro area.

There is also a 2% Tornado Threat ring that extends into the Marginal Risk area.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning.  This image has been excluded from today’s post

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid atmosphere below 550 mb.  There was 0.57 inches of precipitable water in the column.  There was 16 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -662 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 769 m.  There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.4 C/km.  The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 35 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 45 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The surface observations chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows warm temperatures and high surface humidity this morning.  The skies are clear (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The surface pressure chart (from the SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map) shows no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state so far this morning.  The RAP shows that the pressure will decrease with diurnal heating later today.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows southwesterly flow aloft.  An upper-level low is forming over Arizona.

The NAM 850 mb chart shows no strong thermal advection is expected today.  This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity shows that storms will and cluster quickly.  Cells will not remain discrete for long.

The HRRR predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will peak in the upper 80s F today.

The HRRR shows that the moisture will retreat east again today, dropping the dewpoint into the 30s F.

The HRRR shows strong wind gusts are possible, particularly over the central mountain range.

The HRRR predicts that clouds are likely this afternoon.

Today will be cloudier and perhaps wetter than yesterday.  I’m betting I drive back to Rio Rancho in some rain and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Thank you for reading my post.

Sources:
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage
The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website.
The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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