Tag Archives: predicted bust

Slight Risk: 6-5-13

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a dogbone shaped slight risk for today: Included in this risk is a 5% tornado ring: According to SREF, there will be ML CAPE somewhere between 1500J/kg and 2500 J/kg, which is adequate for … Continue reading

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5-23-12 Follow up

The only tornado yesterday was in LA, unrelated to the storms in the north. I will post more here in a few minutes, as I am in Liberal, KS right now….

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5-23-12 Predictions

The SPC has issued a slight risk/5% tornado ring for parts of NE/IA/MN today. I will be Plains-bound for chasing over the next few days, so I will only get as far as eastern CO today. I am new at … Continue reading

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8-17-11 Predictions

The SPC has issued a slight risk and 5% tornado ring for the central plains today. I checked the soundings from Dodge City, KS and North Platte, NE, and I have no idea how they develop their supercell parameter. Today … Continue reading

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8-1-11 Follow up: 0 Tornadoes

Busted!

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7-28-11 Follow up: No Tornadoes

Told ya’ so.

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7-28-11 Predictions

SPC has issued a slight risk and 2% tornado ring for most of Nebraska. Today is likely a case of choosing between shear and CAPE. The soundings out of North Platte, NE and Omaha, NE show decent forecasted CAPE, but … Continue reading

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7-6-11 Predictions

SPC has issued a slight risk and 2% tornado risk area for today as well. The Dodge City, KS (DDC) sounding shows some CAPE and some shear. I’m not buying it. Today’s setup looks worse than yesterday’s. There is no … Continue reading

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6-28-11 Predictions

SPC has issued a slight risk and 2% tornado threat today. I would concentrate on the slight risk area at the KS/CO border. I’m however not seeing much to concentrate on in this area. There is a slight potential for … Continue reading

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6-17-11 Predictions

SPC has a slight risk and 2% tornado risk for a good part of the plains today. I’m not seeing it. It looks like their risk area has almost no shear. The only place with any shear can be seen … Continue reading

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