Storm Chase: Marginal Risk 5/25/23

My attention is fully dedicated to severe weather and storm chasing.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for the High Plains today.

There is less than a 2% tornado risk today, according the SPC.

To summarize the SPC:  Last night’s Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) has overturned a big swath through Texas. The deeper moisture is not as strong as yesterday for this reason. Storms are possible along the dryline, with large hail and damaging winds are the primary threat.

The visible satellite imagery shows low clouds over some of the Plains, but clearing skies over the Panhandles and into Colorado.

The surface observations show no strong boundaries or dryline over the target area. There is at least one bad data point that might be impacting the models (-2 F dewpoint in Colorado in one spot). I circled the bad data point, and I also circled Lamar- there is some moisture pooling at this location due to topography.

The surface pressure chart shows very little of interest this morning. Pressure will rise over northeastern Kansas, but no strong gradients are expected.

None of the 12Z soundings look great. No shear at this time, but this may change throughout the day.

The 700 mb NAM vertical velocities are weak, but there is some rising air over southeastern Colorado.

The Nested NAM shows the dryline is far to our west.

The Nested NAM CAPE/CINH plot is showing CAPE is meager, only reaching into the 2000 J/kg range but it will be enough to support storms, perhaps.

I think we are going to drift north towards Lamar, CO, and evaluate.

Sources:
Storm Prediction Center
College of Dupage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Possible Chase Opportunity, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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