For the next six weeks, my attention is fully dedicated to severe weather and storm chasing. I am currently chasing storms with High Plains Tours.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for the southern High Plains today.
Associate with the Slight Risk is a 2% Tornado Threat ring.
To summarize the SPC: Last night’s Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) has overturned a big swath through Texas. How the moisture recovers is a bit unknown, but it is likely that it will recover and some storms will fire today in this region, with large hail as the primary threat.
The visible satellite imagery shows low clouds over most of the Texas Panhandle. However, the loop shows just a subtle boundary lifting to the north and northeast, which I’ve highlighted in red.
The surface observations show no strong boundaries or dryline over the target area. There is at least one bad data point that might be impacting the models (-2 F dewpoint in Colorado in one spot).
The surface pressure chart shows very little of interest this morning. Normal pressure and no strong gradients. The RAP shows the pressure increasing slightly over the next six hours.
The 12Z sounding from Amarillo, TX, shows no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and a strong capping inversion. The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) are low (~38 m), and the low-level shear is low (3 kts), and the deep-layer shear is lacking as well (14 kts).
The 700 mb NAM chart shows some rising air in southeastern Colorado.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a few cells firing off the Raton Mesa.
High temperatures will rise into the mid 70s F, with a little, local hot spot east of Pueblo, CO.
The Nested NAM shows only a diffuse dryline, but dewpoints in the 50s F, which may by okay by Colorado High Plains standards.
The Nested NAM CAPE/CINH plot is showing CAPE is meager, only reaching into the 2000 J/kg range but it will be enough to support storms.
The helicity is miserable, so I didn’t include it. Same goes for the supercell parameter and SigTor parameter.
I think we are going towards Trinidad, CO. We will probably play the I-25 corridor.
Today is not the best setup at all. It’s going to be an upslope day- it and the moisture are the only things we have going for us. Both deep-layer and low-level shear are in short supply.
High Plains Chasing 