Yesterday was cool and partly sunny in Magdalena and Socorro. I drove to Mountainair and then to Rio Rancho. It started snowing on the drive to Rio Rancho, without sticking. After I arrived home, the snow started to accumulate.
This morning in Rio Rancho, the weather is cloudy and cold. We have around an inch of snow on the ground. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecaster’s discussion says that deteriorating conditions, with continued falling snow have prompted the NWS to issue Winter Weather Advisories for the central Rio Grande River Valley.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and snow showers ( < 0.5″), and a high temperature of 42 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph. This evening will be cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers becoming a 30% chance of snow showers ( < 0.5″) and a low temperature of 30 F. The winds will be from the east at 10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of showers and a high temperature of 46 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers becoming a 30% chance of snow showers ( < 0.5″) and a low temperature of 32 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 40% chance of snow showers (< 1″) and a high temperature of 40 F. The winds will be from the east at 10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be cloudy, with a 70% chance of showers becoming a 40% chance of snow showers (1-3″) and a low temperature of 39 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a cloudy day, with a 50% chance of snow showers (< 1″) and a high temperature of 37 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph. This evening will be cloudy, with a 60% chance of snow showers (2-4″) and a low temperature of 24 F. The winds will be from the east at 10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite imagery shows cloudy weather, statewide.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows one storm system over North Dakota, but another disturbance over southern California and Arizona that is more responsible for our weather here in New Mexico.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a cold, nearly-saturated atmosphere. There was 0.33 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 621 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.5 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 18 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 88 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cold, humid weather. The skies are cloudy (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under high pressure with a slight northeasterly to southwesterly. The RAP shows this trend is expected to continue for at least the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong zonal to southwesterly flow over the state today.
The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows off and on precipitation, statewide, all day.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows that light rain is possible, particularly in the western half of the state.
The Kuchera and 10:1 snow methods are in agreement in terms of timing, coverage and intensity of snowfall. The Kuchera chart is shown below:
The Nested NAM temperature chart shows the high temperatures are expected to reach into the mid 60s F.
The Nested NAM temperature chart also shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 20s F.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 20s F.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows mostly cloudy to overcast skies, statewide, all day.
Today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, due to the approaching storm system. The Albuquerque Metro will start to see some rain this afternoon, with shower coverage increasing this evening.
Things are already a mess today. I started to drive to the train this morning, but had car trouble. I swapped vehicles, but by then, driving conditions had deteriorated. I decided not to go into work today, but will instead say home out of the snow.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD.
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