Central New Mexico Weather: 12/7/22

Yesterday was cool, mostly sunny and a little breezy in Socorro and Magdalena.

It is mostly sunny and cool in Socorro and Magdalena. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and a high temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and a low temperature of 32 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 31 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and a high temperature of 54 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 28 F. The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 53 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and a low temperature of 27 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the very north-central part of the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over the southeastern quadrant of the state, with scattered clouds elsewhere this morning.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows a slow-moving storm system over western Nevada and plenty of moisture aloft over New Mexico.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry layer of air centered around 600 mb. There was 0.40 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 395 m. There was a small thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.8 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 15 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 84 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cold, humid weather, with a mix of sunny and cloudy skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under high pressure but no strong pressure gradients this morning. The RAP shows the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, with no strong pressure gradients expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong southwesterly flow.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show some Cold Air Advection (CAA) approaching from the west. It is more visible on the 700 mb chart.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers are possible this afternoon and evening. Widespread showers are expected in the southeast, and scattered showers elsewhere.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows light rainfall is possible over large chunks of the state. Rainfall amounts will be less than 0.10 inches in most locations.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 50s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 30s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will peak in the mid 40s F this evening.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows clouds increasing throughout the day, drifting in from the southwest.

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and cool. This afternoon and evening, showers are possible. At the higher elevations, particularly in the north, some mountain snow is also possible.

I will return home to Rio Rancho for the first time in a week or so. Otherwise, I will be indoors for the most part today.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD.

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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