Central New Mexico Weather: 11/24/22

Yesterday was cool and sunny. I worked in my shed for a bit, too. In the evening, the winds increased.

It is overcast and cold here in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 20% chance of rain and a high temperature of 45 F. The winds will be from the north at 15 mph. This evening will be cloudy, with a 20% chance of rain showers and low temperature of 27 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph. there may be a few flurries, but no accumulation.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and a high temperature of 43 F. The winds will be from the north at 15-20 mph. This evening will be cloudy, with a 70% chance of snow showers (~ 1″) and a low temperature of 28 F. The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a cloudy day, with a 60% chance of snow (< 0.5″) and a high temperature of 36 F. The winds will be from the north at 15-20 mph. This evening will be cloudy, with an 80% chance of snow (1-2″) and a low temperature of 23 F. The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a cloudy day, with a 50% chance of snow (~1″) and a high temperature of 35 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. This evening will be cloudy, with an 80% chance of snow (1-2″) and a low temperature of 23 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 15 mph. Mountainair is under a Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM until 11 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several winter weather products for the eastern half of the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows a few, light clouds over the southeastern corner of the state.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows a big pocket of deep moisture pushing through the state.

he 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a cold, moderately humid atmosphere. There was 0.19 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1372 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.4 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 9 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 29 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cold, moderately humid weather, with cloudy skies (according to the sensors). The winds are moderate and from the north and northeast.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under a moderate pressure gradient from north to south this morning. The RAP shows the high pressure in the north will build and push south, raising the pressure and weakening the gradient over the next six hours.

The Critical Thicknesses Map shows several relevant contours over the region. Snow is possible, given the location of these critical thickness contours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows the deep trough over the state today.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show Cold Air Advection (CAA) from the northeast. The 850 mb chart shows this more clearly.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows snow showers are likely all day.

The snow calculation methods (10:1 and Kuchera) are in good agreement in terms of snow coverage and depth.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 40s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will rise from the single digits to the mid 20s F, at the edge of the winter storm.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are possible, particularly east of the central mountain chain this evening.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows cloudy skies all day.

Today will be a cloudy, snowy messy day. Here in the Albuquerque Metro region, snow will be light, but in the eastern part of the state, there will be a full-blown winter storm, with gusty winds and snow.

We are going to make our first Thanksgiving trip to my parents’ house in Mountainair. We debated, as there will be snow, but it will be alright.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

Advertisement

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Winter Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.