Central New Mexico Weather: 9/27/22

Yesterday was warm and sunny here in Socorro and Magdalena. I brought a jacket, but didn’t need it, even in my evening walk.

Today, the weather is sunny and mild here in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 83 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 56 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 55. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 51 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph, becoming southwesterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 50 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming light and southerly by midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows that there has been some moisture return aloft. However, the interesting feature is the battle between Hurricane Ian and the jetstream in the east.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a moderately humid atmosphere. There was 0.70 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 13 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and -463 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 895 m. There was a tiny thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.8 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 5 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 4 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cool, moderately dry weather, with sunny skies over the northern tier of counties (according to the sensors). The winds are still.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows high pressure over most of the state so far this morning, with no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows pressure is expected to drop everywhere due to diurnal heating, with no strong pressure gradients expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 80s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 30s F, with a few patches reaching into the 40s F.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few, light clouds are possible this afternoon and evening.

The same story as yesterday: high pressure system over the NM/CO border plus dry air aloft will limit showers and thunderstorms, though a few may be possible this afternoon. If they do occur, they will be really isolated, relying on small pockets of convection and upslope flow, though the surface winds are expected to be weak.

I will remain in Socorro all day today, and while I will spend most of my time indoors, I hope to take an afternoon or evening walk.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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