Central New Mexico Weather: 9/25/22

Yesterday was warm and sunny here in Rio Rancho. I started out the day by going for a run. In the evening, it got a little chilly, and our furnace switched on. I also saw my first yellow leaves on the tree in the front yard.

Today, the weather is sunny and mild here in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 10-15 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 56. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 52 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-20 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 46 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few, light clouds in the southern part of the state this morning. There are a few patches of cumulus clouds bubbling up, perhaps indicating a little bit of morning instability.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows the plume of monsoonal moisture has elongated, stretching from west to east, and also mixed out a bit.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a mild, moderately dry atmosphere. There was 0.53 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1784 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.3 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 10 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 12 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cool, moderately dry weather, with sunny skies over the northern tier of counties (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows slightly higher pressure over most of the state so far this morning, with a slight pressure gradient running north to south. The RAP shows pressure is expected to drop everywhere due to diurnal heating, and weaken the gradient.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart and the precipitation chart have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 80s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 50s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 30s F.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows there is some potential for strong winds in the Eastern Plains this afternoon.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few, light clouds are possible this afternoon and evening.

The NWS mentions a back door cold front passing into the state from the northeast today, but it’s really subtle on the NAM, and I didn’t take a screenshot of it. There is also a slight chance of a few showers and thunderstorms in the west, but they barely show up on the NAM as well. Overall, temperatures will be near average for this time of year, and skies will be partly to mostly sunny.

I am running around like crazy today. I’ll split my time between indoor and outdoor events, as I will do a little grocery shopping, work in my garden and also may go for an evening run.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

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About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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