Central New Mexico Weather: 9/22/22

Yesterday was warm and partly to mostly sunny day in Socorro and Magdalena, with a few, isolated storms off in the distance to the north.

My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 54 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Flood Watches for the western third of the state. The Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows a blanket of light clouds over the northwestern quadrant of the state this morning, as well as a few, scattered light clouds elsewhere.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows dry air under the upper-level high has pushed into New Mexico, with a steep boundary running southwest to northeast through the northwestern corner of the state. Farmington has deep moisture aloft, whereas Roswell does not.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cold, humid weather, with sunny skies over most of the state, and clouds over the northern tier of counties (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows slightly higher pressure over most of the state so far this morning, with no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows pressure is expected to drop everywhere due to diurnal heating, and no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, southwesterly flow over the state today, as an upper-level high pressure system spirals to our east.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a band of showers and thunderstorms that runs southwest to northeast through the northwestern corner of the state.

The simulated precipitation chart shows rain is likely over the northwestern corner of the state, with the heaviest rain near the Colorado border.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the upper 80s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F, perhaps spiking into the low 60s F in some areas this afternoon.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows gusty winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few patches of clouds related to this afternoon’s precipitation, leading to partly to mostly cloudy skies in the northwestern half of the state, but sunny, clear skies in the southeast.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible today, particularly in the northern half of the state, and maybe favoring the northwestern corner. There is a boundary that the NAM is picking up that runs southwest to northeast through this area, but it isn’t showing up as a thermal boundary on the 700 mb or 850 mb charts.

However, there is cool air over the northeastern corner of the state. It’s not quite Cold Air Advection (CAA) as it never really moves strongly in any direction, just lingers in place. Even so, I think it is an indication of things to come: autumn.

I will stay around campus today, mostly indoors.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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