Central New Mexico Weather: 9/19/22

Yesterday was warm and sunny all day, as we drove back from Amarillo.

My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered shower and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be from the south at 10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 57 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the south at 10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few lingering clouds just east of the central mountain range.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows an ample moisture plume covering the eastern half of the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, humid weather, with sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients this morning. The RAP shows this trend is expected to continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, variable flow over the state today ahead of the next trough.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

The simulated precipitation chart shows a few isolated patches of rain.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 80s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows gusty winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few patches of clouds, but mostly sunny and clear skies, with a few areas of partly cloudy skies this afternoon and evening.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible today. The NWS is predicting greater storm coverage than the NAM is showing, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the NAM was running a bit dry. Also, the NWS is talking about the surface moisture plume later this week, pushing into the western part of the state. I see a moisture plume aloft in the eastern part, with ample surface moisture everywhere. Either way, the monsoon isn’t quite finished with us.

I will commute to Magdalena today and then spend the night in Socorro. I don’t think I’ll spend much time outside.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.