Central New Mexico Weather: 8/10/22

Yesterday was warm and mostly sunny in Socorro, though I spent very little time outside.

This morning, the weather is partly cloudy, mild and still in Socorro. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight. Magdalena is under a Flash Flood Watch from 12 PM until 12 AM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 56 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Flash Flood Watches scattered around the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows some lingering clouds left over from yesterday’s showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the southern half of the state.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows ample moisture over the region, though dry air is pushing southwest through the Great Plains.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, humid weather, with a mix of stations reporting clear skies and cloudy skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under slightly higher pressure, but no strong pressure gradients this morning. The RAP shows the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northeasterly flow.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, particularly along the central mountain range and in the northeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain is possible everywhere, with the heaviest rain expected along the central mountain range and over the east-central plains.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the upper 80s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows skies will become partly to mostly cloudy by this afternoon.

Today will be warm, with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. The NWS predicts higher storm probabilities than what is shown on the NAM, but given the approaching shortwave, I tend to agree with the NWS.

I will spend most of the day inside, but will commute back to Rio Rancho this evening.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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