Central New Mexico Weather: 8/8/22

Yesterday was warm and mostly sunny in Rio Rancho. In the evening a few intense thunderstorms rolled through, generating quite a bit of lightning. There was a close lightning strike, followed by a blue glow for a good five to ten seconds – I bet it was ball lightning. Here is a screen grab from lightningmaps.org:

This morning, the weather is partly sunny, mild and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 60% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Flash Flood Watches scattered around the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows some lingering clouds left over from last night (and early this morning’s) showers and thunderstorms.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows the dry air aloft has been pushed out of the region.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, humid weather, with a mix of stations reporting clear skies and cloudy skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under slightly higher pressure, but no strong pressure gradients this morning. The RAP shows the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain is possible everywhere, though coverage is more scattered over the southeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 90s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy in the northwestern half of the state.

Today will be warm, though showers and thunderstorms start much earlier today, which will keep the temperatures a few degrees lower. The NWS mentions a back door cold front shifting in from the northeast, which will spark thunderstorm development all day. It doesn’t show up well as thermal advection, but it does show up as a shift in wind direction.

I will spend most of the day inside, but will commute to and from Socorro and Magdalena to Rio Rancho.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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