Central New Mexico Weather: 8/7/22

Yesterday was warm and mostly sunny in Rio Rancho. In the evening, there were a few showers and thunderstorms nearby, and we got some sprinkles of rain off an on.

This morning, the weather is partly sunny, mild and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southwest in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph, becoming easterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 83 F. The winds will be from the west at 5 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Flash Flood Watches scattered around the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clusters of light clouds over the northwestern corner of the state this morning.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows some dry air has infiltrated the state from the northeast.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a warm, humid atmosphere. There was 1.12 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 1000 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and -200 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 512 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 5 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 6 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows warm, moderately humid weather, with most stations reporting sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under slightly higher pressure, but no strong pressure gradients this morning. The RAP shows the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, particularly over the northwestern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows light rain is possible over the northwestern half of the state, plus a few scattered patches elsewhere.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 90s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F, northwest of a weak dryline.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy in the northwestern half of the state. The northeastern half is expected to remain sunny today.

Today will be warm, with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Storm coverage will be limited to the northwestern half of the state, as some dry air has pushed in ahead of an eastern wave. Dewpoints are a little lower today thanks to this surge.

I will spend most of the day inside, but we may go for a walk this evening.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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