Central New Mexico Weather: 8/6/22

Yesterday was warm and mostly sunny. In the afternoon, there were some nearby showers and thunderstorms, but no rain fell on me at Magdalena or Socorro.

This morning, the weather is mostly sunny, mild and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Flash Flood Watches scattered around the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows a few clusters of cumulus developing all over the state.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows moisture over most of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a warm, humid atmosphere. There was 1.19 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 20 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and -444 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1152 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.9 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 12 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 5 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows warm, moderately humid weather, with most stations reporting sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under slightly higher pressure, but no strong pressure gradients this morning. The RAP shows the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow around a broad, upper-level high pressure system, that stretches all the way to the Midwest.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly over the northwestern half of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows light rain is possible over the northwestern half of the state, plus a few scattered patches elsewhere.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 90s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F, climbing to the lower 60s in a few areas this afternoon and evening, northwest of a diffuse dryline.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows skies will cloud up due to the afternoon precipitation. This will lead to partly cloudy skies this afternoon and evening, though clouds will dissipate overnight.

Today will be warm, with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Coverage and intensity will be heavier today than it has been in the past few days, as a whole. The skies are clouding up here in Rio Rancho.

I will spend most of the day inside, but we may go for a walk this evening.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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