Central New Mexico Weather: 8/4/22

Yesterday was warm and mostly sunny. It was a little breezy on my commute to Magdalena from Socorro. In the afternoon, there were some nearby showers and thunderstorms, but no rain fell on me at Magdalena or Socorro.

This morning, the weather is partly sunny, mild and still in Socorro. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 10-15 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Flash Flood Watches scattered around the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows clouds over most of the state this morning.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows moisture over most of the state. It is being drawn in by the upper-level high pressure system.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a warm, humid atmosphere. There was 1.01 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1777 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.9 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 16 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 10 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, moderately humid weather, with most stations reporting sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under slightly higher pressure, but no strong pressure gradients this morning. The RAP shows the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow around a broad, upper-level high pressure system, currently centered over northern New Mexico.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a few patches of scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring the northern half of the state today.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows the heaviest rain will be along the central mountain range, though light rain will be widespread across the state today.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 90s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F, climbing to the lower 60s in a few areas this afternoon and evening.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows skies will cloud up due to the afternoon precipitation. This will lead to partly cloudy skies this afternoon and evening, though clouds will dissipate overnight.

Today will be warm, with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. While there are no major thermal advections, so no major frontal boundaries, there are tons of left-over outflow boundaries from yesterday’s showers and thunderstorms, and that will lead to local sources of lift. Because of all of these boundaries, I think there will be a few more showers and thunderstorms than is predicted by the NAM, as it doesn’t have the resolution to see them.

I will spend most of the day inside, working at Magdalena during the normal work day and Socorro in the evening.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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