Central New Mexico Weather: 8/3/22

Yesterday was warm and partly sunny. I spent most of the day at Magdalena and we had several thunderstorms roll through, one of which caused the power to flicker.

This morning, the weather is mostly sunny, mild and still in Socorro. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 68 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 98 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 68 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10 mph, becoming northeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Flash Flood Watches scattered around the state as well as a Heat Advisory for the southeastern plains. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few scattered clouds over the southern part of the state this morning.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows moisture spiraling around the upper-level high over the Four Corners region.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, moderately humid weather, with most stations reporting sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under slightly lower pressure, but no strong pressure gradients this morning. The RAP shows the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow around an upper-level high pressure system.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a few patches of scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly near the central mountain chain. Storm motion will be generally to the west, based on the movement of a frontal boundary.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows the heaviest rain will be along the central mountain range and in the northeastern part of the state.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 90s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F, climbing to the lower 60s in a few areas this afternoon and evening.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows skies will cloud up due to the afternoon precipitation. This will lead to partly cloudy skies this afternoon and evening, though clouds will dissipate overnight.

Today will be warm, with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. There is a back door front that is pivoting into the state from the northeast. It isn’t showing up as a thermal inversion, but as a wind shift. This frontal boundary will kick off some of the showers and thunderstorms.

I will spend most of the day inside, working at Magdalena during the normal work day and Socorro in the evening.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.