I arrived yesterday night under cloudy skies, mild temperatures and still conditions.
This morning, the weather is mostly sunny, warm and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 94 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly at 10-15 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 87 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.
The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few scattered clouds over the state this morning.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows some moisture has entrained in the upper-level high spinning over the Four Corners region.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows warm, moderately humid weather, with most stations reporting sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are still.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure system or gradients this morning. The RAP shows the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow around an upper-level high pressure system.
The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a few patches of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the state.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows only a few, small patches of rain are expected. They will tend to favor the western half of the state.
The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 90s F.
The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 70s F.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows skies will cloud up due to the afternoon precipitation. This will lead to partly cloudy skies this afternoon and evening, though clouds will dissipate overnight.
Today will be warm, with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Most of the state could see an afternoon thunderstorm, all of which are expected to remain below severe limits. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a few lingering showers and thunderstorms overnight.
I will commute to Socorro and Magdalena today. I won’t be outside much, other than riding in the car.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD
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