Central New Mexico Weather: 8/1/22

I arrived yesterday night under cloudy skies, mild temperatures and still conditions.

This morning, the weather is mostly sunny, warm and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 93 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 69 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few light, high clouds aloft, as well as a few cumulus clouds developing on the west side of the mountains due to upslope flow.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows some easterly flow aloft, with moderate moisture in place.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows an inverted v shape. There was 1.19 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 1055 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and -189 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CINH) this morning, and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 767 m. There was a small thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 5 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 10 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows warm, moderately humid weather, with most stations reporting sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under higher pressure, with no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows the pressure will drop everywhere with diurnal heating.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, generally easterly flow over the state.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows scattered showers and thunderstorms over the state. The strongest storms will be in the northeastern part of the state.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows scattered patches of rain are possible, statewide.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 90s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows skies will cloud up due to the afternoon precipitation. Mostly cloudy skies are expected over the northern half of the state today.

Today will be warm, with a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Most of the state could see an afternoon thunderstorm, all of which are expected to remain below severe limits. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a few lingering showers and thunderstorms overnight.

I will stay home today. I don’t know how much time I’ll spend outside.

Tomorrow, I will start commuting to Socorro and Magdalena again.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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