Central New Mexico Weather: 7/19/22

Yesterday was mostly sunny, hot and still. I worked in my garden and a run before it got too hot.

This morning, the weather is sunny, warm and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 101 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 72 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly by midnight. Rio Rancho is under a Heat Advisory from 1 PM until 7 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 101 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 72 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10 mph, becoming southwesterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 96 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Heat Advisories, including one that covers the Albuquerque Metro area. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows some mid-level instability in the form of a few clouds near a boundary in the southeastern corner of the state.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows the moisture plume has deformed once again, this time hanging out near the AZ/NM border, but then wrapping around to the northeastern corner of the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows an inverted v shape. There was 0.86 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and no Convective Inhibition (CINH) this morning, and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2047 m. There was a small thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 25 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 6 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, moderately humid weather, with most stations reporting sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light and variable flow as an upper-level high pressure system develops over most of the state this afternoon.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows showers and thunderstorms will be very isolated. They will favor the NM/AZ border and the northeastern corner of the state.

The heaviest and most widespread precipitation is expected in the northeastern corner, where the water vapor imagery has deeper moisture wrapping around the upper-level high.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 100s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will mostly remain in the 40s F.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows mostly sunny and clear skies, with a few clouds this afternoon and evening.

Today will be hot, record-breaking in the Eastern Plains of New Mexico. There will be a few more showers and thunderstorms today, as compared to yesterday, though they will still be isolated. The NWS mentions a backdoor front that will creep into the state later today from the northeast, but it’s not really showing up very well on the NAM.

I will run errands today, but will likely to my best to stay out of the heat.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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