Central New Mexico Weather: 7/17/22

Yesterday was mostly sunny, warm and still. I spent most of the day inside. In the evening, nearby thunderstorms put on quite a show, though no rain fell at my house. I sat outside for half an hour or so and took some lightning photos.

This morning, the weather is sunny, warm and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 99 F. The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 100 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 92 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph, becoming northerly at 5-15 mph after midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows very few clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows moderately dry air aloft, and the moisture plume has been pushed all the way to the CA/AZ border. There is a little moisture sagging south from southeastern Colorado.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows an inverted v shape. There was 0.88 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), and no Convective Inhibition (CINH). The Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 2644 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 7.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 18 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 3 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, moderately humid weather, with most stations reporting sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state this morning. There is a slight pressure gradient radiating from a high pressure bubble over northern New Mexico. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light and variable flow as an upper-level high pressure system develops over most of the state this afternoon.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a few showers and thunderstorms are possible in the northern part of the state this afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows that the heaviest precipitation will happen in the northeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the upper 90s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 70s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 40s F, except in the northeastern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are not expected today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a cluster of cloud cover where the storms fire in the north, but sunny skies elsewhere.

Today’s sounding shows the reduced surface moisture, with a morning dewpoint of only 40 F. While unlikely, any storms that form in this environment will have the risk of dropping a virga bomb, based on the inverted-V shape. Otherwise, today will be sunny, hot and still.

I will probably do a little yard work and then perhaps go for a swim.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Photography, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.