Yesterday was partly sunny, warm and still. I drove down to Socorro for 4th of July events and it rained for a few minutes there.
This morning, the weather is partly sunny, mild and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and low temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 91 F. The winds will be from the south at 10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 83 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the west at 10 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 83 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-15 mph.
The visible satellite imagery is shows a few, isolated clouds scattered over the state this morning.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows a pocket of extremely dry air approaching from the southwest.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere. There was 1.16 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. A bunch of data was missing from today’s sounding. There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.2 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 3 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 13 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows mild, humid weather, with sunny skies, (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop with diurnal heating, but no strong gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, southerly flow.
The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows isolated showers and thunderstorms on the edges of the state.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows isolated rainfall, particularly over the corners of the state.
The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 80s F.
The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F today, though a pocket of dry air will drop dewpoints into the lower 40s across the southwestern and central parts of the state this afternoon and evening.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few afternoon clouds, particularly over the eastern half of the state.
Today, a pocket of dry air will limit the shower and thunderstorm threat this afternoon and evening in the central parts of the state. Moisture will still be present over the Eastern Plains, and a few thunderstorms will be possible there.
I will go for a run and may putz with the cars later today.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD
High Plains Chasing 