Central New Mexico Weather: 6/22/22

Yesterday was cloudy and mild. We didn’t get any more rain yesterday. There was some nice clouds over the Sandias in the evening. We did get 0.52 inches (at the time of this writing) of rain overnight.

This morning, the weather is mostly cloudy, mild and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a cloudy day, with a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a cloudy day, with a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 82 F. The winds will be from the north at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, becoming northerly at 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a cloudy day, with a 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 73 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 54 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a pair of Flood Watches. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is shows cloudy skies over most of the state this morning.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows upper-level moisture bunched up ahead of the trough.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere, but with no nearly-saturated layers. There was 1.22 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 170 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 193 m. There was no thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.5 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 20 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 25 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map is unavailable at this time.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under high pressure, with no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows that this trend will continue for the next six hours, though the pressure will drop statewide.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light to moderate southwesterly flow ahead of the next trough. I keep saying this, but the culprit is an upper-level thermal low over southern California that is staying in place.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows showers and thunderstorms tapering off in the late afternoon and early evening.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows some patches of heavy rain tomorrow.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 80s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will rise into the 50s F and stay there overnight.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows skies will remain cloudy all morning and early afternoon, eventually clearing out a bit in the evening.

Today will be cloudy, with a few showers and thunderstorms. They will taper off in the afternoon and evening. It will be a little warmer today as compared to yesterday.

I am thinking the NAM may be overpredicting precipitation as the simulated reflectivity is not verifying in coverage. Instead of widespread, heavy rain, we didn’t get a drop in Rio Rancho.

I will mostly remain inside today. I may work on my cars later this afternoon.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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