Central New Mexico Weather: 6/21/22

Yesterday was cloudy and warm. We didn’t get any more rain yesterday.

This morning, the weather is mostly cloudy, mild and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 10-15 mph. Rio Rancho is under a Flood Watch.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a cloudy day, with a 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be cloudy, with a 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 10 mph. Socorro is under a Flood Watch.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a cloudy day, with a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph. This evening will be cloudy, with a 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 57 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph. Magdalena is under a Flood Watch.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a cloudy day, with a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon. This evening will be cloudy, with a 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph. Mountainair is under a Flood Watch.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Flood Watch for most of the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery is shows cloudy skies over most of the state this morning.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows upper-level moisture bunched up ahead of the trough.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere, but with no nearly-saturated layers. There was 0.91 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 4 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -218 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1141 m. There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.4 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 14 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 23 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows warm, humid weather, with a mix of sunny and cloudy skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under slightly higher pressure, with no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows that this trend will continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light to moderate southwesterly flow ahead of the next trough.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a line of showers and thunderstorms moving northerly through the state today.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows a showers are possible over most of the state through tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 70s F.

The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s F.

The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will rise into the 50s F and stay there overnight.

The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows skies will remain cloudy for most of the day.

Today will be cloudy with heavy rain, and a little cooler than yesterday. The line of storms moving north through the state is slow-moving and continuous, meaning virtually everywhere in the state will receive some rainfall today.

I will mostly remain inside today. I will run a few errands in a bit.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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