Yesterday was partly sunny, with a few evening showers and thunderstorms in Rio Rancho.
This morning, the weather is mostly cloudy, mild and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, becoming easterly after midnight.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 mph.
The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Flood Watch for most of the state. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:
The visible satellite imagery is shows light clouds over most of the state this morning.
The upper-level water vapor imagery shows upper-level moisture bunched up ahead of the trough.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere, but with no nearly-saturated layers. There was 0.95 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 335 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -113 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 573 m. There was a tiny thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.4 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 19 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 35 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows warm, humid weather, with sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and southwesterly.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no slightly higher pressure, with no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows that the pressure will drop as a thermal low develops over the western part of the state.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows light to moderate southwesterly flow ahead of the next trough.
The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows scattered showers over the western half of the state, with storm motions to north. Storms will begin in the late afternoon.
The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows a showers are possible over most of the state through tomorrow afternoon.
The Nested NAM temperature chart predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 80s F.
The Nested NAM also predicts shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F.
The Nested NAM dewpoint chart shows that the dewpoints will rise into the 50s F and stay there overnight.
The Nested NAM wind prediction chart shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows skies will remain cloud for most of the day.
Today will be partly sunny and warm, with monsoon showers and thunderstorms beginning again this afternoon.
I will mostly remain inside today. I don’t have to commute anywhere and lots of places are closed for the holiday anyhow. I will be watching the weather and disconnecting my amateur radio antennas accordingly.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD
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