Central New Mexico Weather: 6/13/22

Yesterday was mostly sunny, hot and still. There were a few dry virga bombs around Albuquerque and Rio Rancho.

This morning, the weather is partly sunny, warm and still in Rio Rancho. My weather station in Rio Rancho says:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 10% chance of an isolated, dry thunderstorm and a high temperature of 95 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a 10% chance of an isolated, dry thunderstorm and a high temperature of 98 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph, becoming northwesterly at 10-15 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-20 mph, becoming northerly after midnight. Socorro is under a Red Flag Warning from 12 PM until 8 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 10% chance of isolated dry thunderstorms and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting to 30 mph this afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. Magdalena is under a Red Flag Warning from 12 PM until 8 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 10% chance of an isolated, dry thunderstorm and a high temperature of 90 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a 10% chance of isolated, dry thunderstorms and a low temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 15-20 mph, becoming westerly at 10-15 mph after midnight. Mountainair is under a Red Flag Warning from 12 PM until 8 PM.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a variety of wind and heat-related products. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) shows much of the state is under a Critical Fire Weather Risk this afternoon.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows a few light clouds over the eastern third of the state.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows a little moisture being pumped into the western half of the state from the south.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows warm, moderately humid weather, with sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under low pressure with no strong pressure gradients this morning. The RAP shows the pressure will drop statewide, and a light southwest to northeast pressure gradient will develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 700 mb and 850 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows a few thunderstorms are possible in the Rio Grande River Valley and over the northeastern corner of the state.

The precipitation chart shows some rain is unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 90s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop from the 30s F into the 20s F in the afternoon.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are possible this afternoon, statewide.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few light clouds are possible with the dry thunderstorms.

Today will be sunny and hot. We will be near record-breaking temperatures for the next few days. While the simulated radar shows storms this afternoon, the precipitation chart shows little rain- dry thunderstorms. Combined with the strong winds and dropping humidity, the fire risk is quite high this afternoon.

I will commute to Socorro this morning. I don’t know if I’ll spend much time outside at all.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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