6/3/22 Storm Chase: Slight Risk

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk for the High Plains today.

Associated with the Slight Risk is a 2% Tornado Threat Ring over the NM/TX border.

To summarize the SPC:  The threat near the NM/TX border is based on a moisture axis in an area with adequate deep layer shear to initially support supercells, but will quickly morph into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). Farther north, there is still some moisture and some shear, but storms are expected to cluster and be multicellular in nature. In the northern High Plains, the severe threat is there, but moisture will be the limiting factor.

The visible satellite imagery shows a cirrus deck that is spreading into the area.

The simulated HRRR is basically showing what the SPC is predicting- multicell clusters over CO and a few cells quickly morphing into a mess along the NM/TX border.

We have a slightly different mission statement today, so we will be driving to Limon, CO, and picking up a long time friend of the Hokie Storm Chase Team and taking him chasing in northeastern and east central Colorado. Because of this, I am not going into more complex analysis at this time- our target is Limon, and by then we will be doing “nowcasting” to see where to go from there.

Sources:
Storm Prediction Center
College of Dupage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Possible Chase Opportunity, Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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