Enhanced Risk: 5/5/22

For the next six weeks, my attention is fully dedicated to severe weather and storm chasing.

Yesterday, the SPC showed nine tornado reports, most of which were east of my target area by 100+ miles. I think that is close enough that I could have tracked the development and adjusted my position.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an Enhanced Risk for east Texas and the Middle Mississippi River Valley today.

Associated with the Enhanced Risk is a 5% tornado threat ring.

To summarize the SPC:  Morning convection left over from yesterday’s storms will be ongoing. How this will shape afternoon development is uncertain. Outflow boundaries and ascent ahead of the mid-level low may cause afternoon thunderstorms, trending farther northeast in the Enhanced Risk threat area.

The visible satellite imagery is unavailable at this time. The enhanced infrared imagery shows ongoing showers and thunderstorms for all of East Texas.

The surface observations show cloudy conditions over the threat area. The surface winds are largely southeasterly, advecting Gulf of Mexico moisture northwest into east Texas.

The frontal boundaries are very hard to see on this chart. The dryline (black line) is over eastern New Mexico and that was easy to find. The warm front snakes around through west Texas, curving into Oklahoma. It can be detected by a slight wind shift and step in temperature.

The surface pressure chart shows a large surface low over most of Texas. The RAP shows this low will tighten slightly and move northeast into southeastern Oklahoma over the next six hours.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity shows morning convection will become linearly organized by the late morning, moving southeast through East Texas. In its wake, the NAM shows no further convection.

High temperatures will rise into the mid 70s, but will be cooled by the massive squall line.

The Nested NAM shows dewpoints will remain quite damp. The dryline is out of play for the day, located much farther west.

The Nested NAM CAPE/CINH plot is showing CAPE is peaking at around 2900 J/kg in the East Texas.

The Nested NAM shows that the supercell parameter will be highest in southern Oklahoma later in the afternoon (17 Z or so).

The 3km helicity is not impressive, either. After the squall line passes, it doesn’t get any better.

The Nested NAM shows that the SigTor parameter will also peak in East Texas.

If I were targeting and chasing today, I wouldn’t bite on any of this. I would stay where I was, rather than chase a morning squall line.

Meteorologically speaking, the morning convection will morph into a squall line with a few embedded supercells. The system will leave slightly cooler air in its wake. The only thing that might aid severe weather is with the squall line passing through early, the humid air that will still linger over East Texas may get a chance to warm up with diurnal heating.

Today would likely be a down day for chasing. A good day for laundry and catching up on non-chase related tasks!

Storm Prediction Center
College of Dupage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery, Severe Weather and tagged , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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