Central New Mexico Weather: 12/8/21


Yesterday was mild, mostly cloudy, and still in Socorro

This morning, Socorro is cold, mostly sunny and still. There was a pretty sunrise, with a slight mountain-wave/Kelvin-Helmholtz pattern:

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 57 F. The winds will be light and variable, becoming southwesterly at 5-10 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, becoming clear, with a low temperature of 34 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 60 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 32 F. The winds will be from the south at 5 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 57 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 33 F. The winds will be from the west at 15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 54 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 33 F. The winds will be west at 15-20 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a High Wind Watch for the northern mountains. The rest of the region is under a Special Weather Statement concerning an approaching Winter Storm. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows a few, light clouds over most of the state.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows humid conditions aloft.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows humidity has increased in most layers of the atmosphere, as compared to yesterday. There was 0.39 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 635 m. There was a small thermal inversion near the surface and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 2.7 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 16 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 31 kts (due to a mix of speed and directional changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cold, dry conditions under mostly sunny skies, though there are a few clouds over the northwestern part of the state. The winds are still.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under slightly higher pressure, and the northern part of the state is under a strong pressure gradient from west to east. The RAP shows this trend will continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong, southwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts shows no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a few echoes over the northwestern quadrant of the state this afternoon and evening.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows some light precipitation at high elevations. Given the surface temperatures and upper-air profile, this will be light, mountain snow.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 30s F.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 20s F.

The Nested NAM shows winds will be breezy over the central mountain range.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows partly cloudy skies through the afternoon and early evening.

Today will be one of the remaining half-way decent days before the approaching winter storm. The temperatures will be cool, and the skies partly cloudy.

I probably won’t spend much time outside today, but I will go for a walk later today.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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