Yesterday was cool, sunny and breezy.
This morning, Jersey, VA, has been cool, partly cloudy and still.
From the NWS in Sterling, VA: High pressure will continue today, ahead of a cold front that will pass through tomorrow night.
The NWS in Sterling, VA, forecasts (for Jersey, VA) a mostly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 50 F. The wind will be from the southeast at 3-5 mph. This evening will be cloudy, with a low temperature of 32 F. The winds will be calm.
The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Warsaw, VA) a partly cloudy day, with a high temperature of 51 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 34 F. The wind will be calm.
The NWS in Wakefield, VA, forecasts (for Kilmarnock, VA) a partly sunny day, with a high temperature of 53 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-3 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 39 F. The wind will be calm.
The visible satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies over the region.
The water vapor imagery shows increased moisture aloft.
The 12Z upper air sounding from Sterling, VA, shows a nearly-saturated layer at the surface, and extremely dry layer above. There was 0.21 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 207 m. There was a large thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was -0.2 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 13 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 36 kts (due mostly to speed changes).
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Observations Map shows cool temperatures, moderately dry dew points and sunny skies. The winds are light and from the south.
The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we are under high pressure with no strong pressure gradients present. The RAP shows this trend will continue for the next six hours.
The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, zonal flow over the state.
The NAM 850 mb chart and the 700 mb chart show little thermal advection over the state today.
The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers are unlikely today. This, the HRRR simulated reflectivity and the Nested NAM precipitation chart..
The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the Northern Neck will rise into the upper 40s F by this afternoon.
The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 30s F by tomorrow morning.
The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the lower 20s F.
The Nested NAM shows winds will be still. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows very few clouds over the state today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.
Today will be sunny and clear, but breezy and chilly.
I got off to a late start, so I can tell you I spent most of the day indoors.
The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD
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