Central New Mexico Weather: 10/14/21


Yesterday was a mild, mostly sunny, with only a light breeze.

This morning, my commute from Rio Rancho to Magdalena has been sunny, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph this afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 33 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 72 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 35 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 30 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting to 30 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 27 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, but then decreasing to 5-10 mph after midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows a few, light clouds over the north-central part of the state this morning.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows even moisture over the state this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry atmosphere, but a nearly-saturated layer near 500 mb. There was 0.29 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1011 m. There was a small thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.7 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 19 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 75 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cold temperatures, moderately-dry dewpoints, and sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure systems or gradients so far this morning. The RAP shows that there will be a slight pressure gradient over the northern tier of counties later this morning.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate to strong, zonal flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show light Cold Air Advection (CAA) is possible in the north and northeastern parts of the state. The CAA is more visible on the 700 mb chart.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain is unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 60s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 40s F.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 20s F.

The Nested NAM shows high winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows very few clouds over the state today. This image has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will have below average temperatures and sunny, clear skies. The NWS is calling for stronger winds than the NAM was showing, but I tend to favor higher winds for today’s forecast as well. There is still strong winds over Colorado, and plenty of strong winds aloft, so I see no reason why we wouldn’t have some mixing to bring those winds to the surface.

I will spend most of my day inside, though I have already been out for a long walk this morning.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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