Central New Mexico Weather: 10/12/21


Yesterday was a mild, mostly sunny and windy. I did a bunch of work in my shed, and I disconnected all of my garden hoses in anticipation of the first freeze this week.

This morning, Rio Rancho is partly sunny, cool and windy.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and a high temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 25-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 34 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but then decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight. Rio Rancho is under a wind advisory until 6 PM tonight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 65 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 32 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but then decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight. Socorro is under a Wind Advisory until 6 PM tonight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 25-35 mph, gusting to 50 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 27 F. The winds will be from the west at 15-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph, but then decreasing to 5-15 mph after midnight. Magdalena is under a Wind Advisory until 6 PM tonight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and a high temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 30-35 mph, gusting to 50 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 27 F. The winds will be from the west at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph, but then decreasing to 10-20 mph after midnight. Mountainair is under a High Wind Warning until 6 PM tonight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Freeze Warnings, High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds over the northwestern quadrant of the state- not quite a cumulus field, but rather a broad collection of fast-moving cumulus clouds.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows moisture circulating around the upper-level low pressure system; this is our Pacific storm.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry atmosphere, with a humid layer at 600 mb. There was 0.40 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 4 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -163 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1523 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 7.9 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 33 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 85 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cool temperatures, moderate dewpoints, and sunny skies generally, with a few northwestern stations reporting cloud cover (according to the sensors). The winds are moderate and from the southwest.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under low pressure with only a slight pressure gradient from southwest to northeast. The RAP shows the low pressure will move northeast and deepen, strengthening the pressure gradient significantly over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows very strong southwesterly flow over the state today as the trough passes through.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) from the west.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain is unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 60s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 30s F.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will drop from the 20s F into the 10s F this evening.

The Nested NAM shows high winds are possible all day.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few, lingering clouds, though the skies will clear later this evening.

Today’s big weather issue will be the wind. It will be windy all day, statewide. The temperatures will drop as well with the passage of this Pacific storm. Welcome to autumn!

I will spend most of my day inside.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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