Central New Mexico Weather: 10/11/21


Yesterday was a mild, mostly sunny and windy. I went for a run and a long walk even with the winds.

This morning, Rio Rancho is mostly sunny, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 74 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 46 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, increasing to 15-25 mph, and gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 48 F. The winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 70 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 44 F. The winds will be from the south at 15-25 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the south at 10-15 mph, increasing to 20-25 mph in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 43 F. The winds will be from the south at 20-30 mph, gusting to 40 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued several Freeze Warnings and High Wind Watches. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the state this morning. This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows some lingering moisture, as well as another approaching Pacific storm system.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a dry atmosphere. There was 0.27 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1523 m. There was a small thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 2.7 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 6 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 38 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cool temperatures, moderate dewpoints, and sunny skies (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under no strong pressure systems, but there is a strong pressure gradient from northwest to southeast over the state. The RAP shows the pressure will stabilize and the pressure gradient will weaken over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows strong zonal to northwesterly flow over the state today, as the trough passes through the state.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show little additional thermal advection today. There will be some beginning early tomorrow morning. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain is unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the lower 70s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 20s F.

The Nested NAM shows high winds are possible all day.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a few, light clouds developing later this evening.

Today will be breezy and a little warmer than yesterday. I don’t believe the NAM is going cold enough; we are already colder here at my house than the low predicted.

I will do a little work outside today, mostly in preparation for shutting down my garden for the year.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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