Central New Mexico Weather: 10/1/21


Yesterday was mild and cloudy, with off-and-on rain all day.

This morning, Socorro is partly sunny, cool and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5 mph, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 47 F. The winds will be from the west at 5 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 67 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 46 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming northwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and high temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the west at 5 mph, becoming northeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 41 F. The winds will be from the east at 5 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of chance of showers and thunderstorms, and high temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 39 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the state today. Brief but heavy downpours and small hail will be the primary threats.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather that covers the very southeastern corner of the state. Small to severe hail are the primary threats.

The visible satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over most of the state this morning, though there is some clearing in the south.

The upper-level water vapor imagery shows the storm lingering overhead again this morning.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly saturated atmosphere. There was 0.59 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 296 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -9 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 76 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 6.2 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 14 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 19 kts (due to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows cool temperatures, high dewpoints, and mostly cloudy skies in the north, and sunny skies in the south (according to the sensors). The winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map is unavailable at this time.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows moderate, varied flow as the upper-level winds veer around the upper-level low pressure system.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show no strong thermal advection over the state today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows lingering storms in the northeastern corner of the state, but new convection beginning around 20 Z.

The HRRR simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are possible over most of the state today and tonight. Some of the storms are lingering through the morning, but new convection will begin around 20 Z.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain is likely, statewide, with some heavy rain over the Eastern Plains.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 60s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 40s F.

The Nested NAM shows high winds are unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows partly cloudy skies all day, but maybe some clearing late this evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off today, and the temperature is starting to feel like autumn. It is shaping up to be a seasonal weekend.

I will likely spend most of the day inside, but will commute back to Rio Rancho this evening.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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