Central New Mexico Weather: 8/20/21


Yesterday was warm, mostly sunny, and still in Socorro and Magdalena. There were a few clouds in the late afternoon, but no measurable rain fell.

This morning, Socorro is mostly sunny, warm and still. There was a little light altocumulus, as shown in this picture from Socorro this morning.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 89 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph, becoming south. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the west at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 57 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the west at 10-15 mph. This evening will be mostly clear, with a low temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the southwest 5-10 mph.

The visible satellite imagery shows light clouds over the northwestern corner of the state.

The upper-level water vapor loop shows dry air has pushed its way into the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly saturated layer at 600 mb. There was 0.81 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 11 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -203 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1268 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 7.3 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 8 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 26 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map is unavailable at this time.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are no strong pressure systems or gradients over the state, though a lee-side low developed over southeastern Colorado. There is a slight pressure gradient across the northern part of the state, headed from west to east towards the lee-side low. The RAP shows that diurnal heating will drop the pressure everywhere over the next six hours, but strong pressure gradients are not expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light to moderate, southwesterly flow today.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show little thermal advection today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The HRRR shows showers and thunderstorms are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain is unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 80s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F in the wake of the storms later this evening.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 40s F and lower 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows some wind today, but damaging winds are unlikely. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows mostly sunny and clear skies. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

Today will be a sunny day, with very little chance of precipitation. The pattern is much quieter over the next few days, with dry air aloft. I am noticing the low temperatures are trending lower than the NAM is predicting.

I will be inside most of the day, though I will drive back to Rio Rancho this evening.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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