Central New Mexico Weather: 8/16/21


Yesterday was warm and mostly sunny until the late afternoon. We had some severe thunderstorms roll in, with a little wind and lots of rain.

Peak rainfall rate- we ended the night with around a half an inch of rain.

This morning, Rio Rancho is mostly sunny, warm and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming westerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 83 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a low temperature of 61 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph, becoming easterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 55 F. The winds will be from the southwest 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 75 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a low temperature of 53 F. The winds will be from the southeast 5-10 mph, becoming northeasterly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook concerning afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall, though isolated severe storms are possible. There are several flood-related products active in the southern part of the warning area. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk threat for severe weather that covers part of New Mexico. The primary threats will be heavy rain and potentially strong wind.

The visible satellite imagery shows light clouds scattered over the state this morning.

The upper-level water vapor loop shows upper-level moisture remains, but has drifted a little farther south. On the loop, moisture that drifted south is being replaced by some that is drifting in from the west.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, is unavailable at this time.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Map shows warm temperatures and high humidity. The skies are sunny (according to the sensors), and the winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows we are under high pressure, but no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows that diurnal heating will drop the pressure everywhere over the next six hours, but strong pressure gradients are not expected to develop.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northwesterly flow today.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show little thermal advection today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, particularly in the northern half of the state. Storm initiation is around 17 Z, and peak coverage is around 22 Z.

The HRRR shows scattered storms are possible, statewide. Storms will initiate at around 19 Z, then drift southward, peaking in coverage at around 0 Z.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain is possible over most of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 80s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F in the wake of the storms later this evening.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the upper 40s F.

The Nested NAM shows some wind today, particularly around the thunderstorms, but no damaging winds. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows mostly cloudy skies over the state this afternoon and evening.

Today will be mostly sunny until storms form later this afternoon and evening. I do believe the Albuquerque Metro area will see some showers and thunderstorms, as both the NAM and the HRRR are showing a similar setup. The NAM’s coverage is a little lighter, so we’ll see how it plays out.

I am going to go outside later and run a few errands.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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