Central New Mexico Weather: 8/2/21


Yesterday was hot, mostly sunny, but then clouded up in the evening, and we got a little rain. I don’t think it was even enough for my weather station to notify me, but I heard it briefly.

This morning, Rio Rancho was mild, cloudy and still. We are under a large cirrus shield.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming southwesterly this afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, decreasing to a 20% chance, and a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 5 mph, becoming northeasterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 86 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5 mph, becoming northerly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a mostly cloudy day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 78 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming southerly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, decreasing to a 20% chance, and a low temperature of 58 F. The winds will be from the south at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 77 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and a low temperature of 56 F. The winds will be from the southeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southwesterly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Flash Flood Watch for a stripe of northwestern New Mexico. The rest of the state is under a Hazardous Weather outlook concerning the afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rains are the biggest threat, and with erratic storm motions, flash flooding is possible. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows cloudy skies for most of the state this morning.

The upper-level water vapor loop shows a belt of moisture passing through the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a nearly-saturated atmosphere from 700 mb to 500 mb, and a slight inverted-v shape near the surface. There was 1.26 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 1017 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.9 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 10 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 33 kts (due mostly to directional changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map shows mild temperatures and high humidity. The skies are cloudy, (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map shows that we are under strong high pressure, but no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows the pressure will drop slightly with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow, as we sit at the bottom center of a ridge.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show little thermal advection today. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a scattered showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern corner of the state, initiating at around 18 Z, with peak coverage around 0 Z.

The HRRR shows scattered storms initiating around 18 Z and peaking around 1 Z. The HRRR shows much wider storm coverage than the NAM.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain will be likely over the northwestern corner of the state.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 80s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows no strong winds today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows mostly cloudy skies around and after the showers and thunderstorms.

Today will be cloudy and a little cooler than normal, but otherwise represents a typical monsoonal setup. The NAM and the HRRR disagree on storm coverage today, though I am tending to side with the NAM, based on yesterday. There was only a few drops of rain, and certainly not the storm coverage showed in the NAM, so it may be overpredicting moisture.

I will be inside most of the day today. I will commute to Socorro and may need to run around campus a bit, but won’t be outside for long.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
This entry was posted in Practicing Concepts, Predictions, Satellite Imagery and tagged , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.