Central New Mexico Weather: 8/1/21


Yesterday was hot, mostly sunny, but then clouded up in the evening, and we got a little rain. We had a really close lightning strike, but thankfully, it wasn’t on my property.

This morning, Rio Rancho was mild, cloudy and still. We are under a large cirrus shield.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Rio Rancho, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 85 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-10 mph, becoming southeasterly this afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, decreasing to a 20% chance, and a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph, becoming northerly after midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Socorro, NM) a mostly sunny day, with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 88 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-15 mph, becoming easterly in the afternoon. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, decreasing to a 30% chance, and a low temperature of 64 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-15 mph, becoming northerly by midnight.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Magdalena, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms, decreasing to a 30% chance, and a low temperature of 59 F. The winds will be from the east at 5-10 mph.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Mountainair, NM) a partly sunny day, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms and a high temperature of 76 F. The winds will be from the northeast at 5-15 mph. This evening will be mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms, decreasing to a 20% chance, and a low temperature of 54 F. The winds will be from the east at 10-15 mph. Mountainair is under a Flash Flood Watch.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, has issued a Flash Flood Watch for a stripe east of the central mountain range. The rest of the state is under a Hazardous Weather outlook concerning the afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rains are the biggest threat, though damaging winds and small hail will be possible. The NWS Watches and Warnings graphic is shown below:

The visible satellite imagery shows cloudy skies for all but the western edge of the state this morning.

The upper-level water vapor loop shows a belt of moisture passing through the state.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Albuquerque, NM, shows a humid atmosphere this morning. There was 1.06 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was 135 J/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), -181 J/kg of Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 766 m. There was no thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 5.9 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 9 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 20 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map shows mild temperatures and high humidity. The skies are cloudy, (according to the sensors) and the winds are light and variable.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Map shows that we are under strong high pressure, but no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows the pressure will drop slightly with diurnal heating, but no strong pressure gradients are expected to develop over the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, varied flow, as we sit at the bottom center of a ridge.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show a weak back door cold front entering the state from the northeast. It is most visible on the 850 mb chart.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a scattered showers and thunderstorms, initiating at around 18 Z, with peak coverage around 23 Z.

The HRRR shows scattered storms initiating around 18 Z and peaking around 0 Z.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows rain will be possible over most of the state, with the heaviest rains in the southeastern corner, stretching into the Roswell area.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures for the middle Rio Grande River Valley will reach the mid 80s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 50s F.

The Nested NAM shows no strong winds today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows mostly cloudy skies around and after the showers and thunderstorms.

Today will be cloudy and a little cooler than normal, but otherwise represents a typical monsoonal setup. We will have afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be amplified by the approaching backdoor cold front.

I will be inside most of the day today. I am woefully behind, and am still trying to catch up. I may try to do a little gardening in a few minutes.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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