Northeast Ohio Weather: 7/19/21

Yesterday was mild, sunny and still. It was a beautiful day for moving furniture, we could not have asked for better weather.

This morning has been mild, sunny and still.

The NWS in Albuquerque, NM, forecasts (for Newbury, OH) a mostly sunny day, with a high temperature of 81 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-8 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 63 F. The winds will be light and from the west.

The NWS in Cleveland, OH, forecasts (for Cleveland, OH) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 80 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 68 F. The winds will be from the light and variable.

The NWS in Cleveland, OH, forecasts (for Ashtabula, OH) a sunny day, with a high temperature of 79 F. The winds will be from the northwest at 5-10 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 66 F. The winds will be from the southwest at 3-6 mph.

The NWS in Cleveland, OH, forecasts (for Warren, OH) a mostly sunny day, with a 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 84 F. The winds will be from the north at 5-8 mph. This evening will be partly cloudy, with a low temperature of 62 F. The winds will be from the north at 5 mph, becoming calm by midnight.

The visible satellite imagery shows no clouds over the region this morning This image has been excluded from today’s post.

The upper-level water vapor loop shows a pocket of dry air pushing into the region today.

The 12Z upper air sounding from Wilmington, OH, shows a humid boundary layer, but decreasing moisture aloft. There was 0.91 inches of precipitable water present in the column this morning. There was no Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), no Convective Inhibition (CIN), and the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) was 195 m. There was a large thermal inversion and the 0-3 km lapse rate was 4.1 C/km. The hodograph shows that the low-level shear was 19 kts (due mostly to directional changes) and the deep-layer shear was 13 kts (due mostly to speed changes).

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Surface Observations Map shows mild temperatures and high humidity. The skies are a clear (according to the sensors), and the winds are calm.

The SPC Mesoscale Analysis Pressure Map shows that we are under high pressure with no strong pressure gradients. The RAP shows this trend will continue for the next six hours.

The NAM 250 mb chart shows light, northwesterly flow over the state today.

The NAM 850 mb and 700 mb charts show a little thermal advection. These charts have been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated reflectivity chart shows a small line of showers and thunderstorms moving across I-70 near the Pennsylvania border.

The HRRR shows precipitation is unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM precipitation chart shows a little light rain near I-70, but otherwise sunny skies.

The Nested NAM predicts that the high temperatures the lower 80s F.

The Nested NAM shows the low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 60s F by tomorrow morning.

The Nested NAM shows that the dewpoints will remain in the 60s F.

The Nested NAM shows strong winds are unlikely today. This chart has been excluded from today’s post.

The Nested NAM simulated infrared chart shows a thin thread of clouds near I-70 in the eastern part of the state.

Today will be pleasant in the Cleveland area. I tend to believe the NAM in that there will be a small line of showers and thunderstorms near I-70. It shows up on the HRRR as a few pixels, not worth showing on this blog. The air is humid enough near the surface that even the tiniest boundary will kick up a shower or two, but the tiniest boundary is well south of Cleveland.

The forecasts from the National Weather Service are from The NWS Homepage. The upper air soundings and mesoscale analysis plots are from the Storm Prediction Center website. The satellite data, model data, and forecasted soundings are from College of DuPage – SATRAD

About highplainschasing

This blog is about my tales in storm chasing. My name is Seth Price and I am an instrumentation instructor at New Mexico Tech. My amateur radio call sign is N3MRA.
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